2017 ACE: NATL - 226.0 | EPAC - 98.2 | WPAC - 154.5 | NIO - 16.1

[cycloneye]

TC Fernanda in EPAC looks like it will be the most or one of the most ACE producers in 2017 season on that basin as conditions are optimal to rack up heavy ACE units.Latest numbers have been updated with the 55kt reading.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Fernanda with the 00z update at 75kts has 1.7725 units.If all pans out as it looks in the very favorable enviroment it can get around 30 units.EPAC (15.6425) is going to run away from the rest of the basins unless the others wake up strongly.

[euro6208]

WPAC only 8% of Normal YTD of 53 resulting in only 27.4900 31% of Normal YTD for the Northern Hemisphere.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Fernanda continues to rack up ACE units rapidly for EPAC (As of 00z Best Track at 125kts has 19.9575 units) The Fernanda units have an error in Weatherbell so I didn't post those.

http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php

[Ntxw]

Fernanda has 4.5 units so far per CSU. She will probably end up at 20-30 low end, 30-40 upper end. EPAC>CPAC crossovers tends to yield lots of ACE if they are majors

97E also might be another significant ACE producer behind it should it move westward.

[gatorcane]

Yeah the EPAC is about to rack up a lot of ACE over the next couple of weeks.

[cycloneye]

Major Hurricane Fernanda goes up to 9.1 units and EPAC is up to 22.96 units as of 15z advisory.

[RL3AO]

I played around with Python today and was able to write a script to pull the best track data from NHC and calculate the ACE. This should also update the totals as best track changes are made.

Code: Select all

East Pacific Accumulated Cyclone Energy
Adrian (01E) ACE: 0.5650
Beatriz (02E) ACE: 0.6025
Calvin (03E) ACE: 0.2450
Dora (04E) ACE: 4.6650
Eugene (05E) ACE: 8.1125
Fernanda (06E) ACE: 9.0900
-------------------------
Seasonal ACE: 23.2800

Code: Select all

Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy
Arlene (01L) ACE: 0.5650
Bret (02L) ACE: 0.6875
Cindy (03L) ACE: 1.5500
Four (04L) ACE: 0.0000
-------------------------
Seasonal ACE: 2.8025


[RL3AO]

I know you're tracking with the advisories, but here's the 18z best track update.

Time Intensity Adv. ACE Storm ACE
----------- ----------- ---------- -----------
2017071218 35 0.1225 0.1225
2017071300 40 0.16 0.2825
2017071306 45 0.2025 0.485
2017071312 55 0.3025 0.7875
2017071318 65 0.4225 1.21
2017071400 75 0.5625 1.7725
2017071406 80 0.64 2.4125
2017071412 95 0.9025 3.315
2017071418 110 1.21 4.525
2017071500 125 1.5625 6.0875
2017071506 125 1.5625 7.65
2017071512 120 1.44 9.09
2017071518 115 1.3225 10.4125

[Kingarabian]

RL3AO, sometimes the NHC goes higher than the ACTF.

[RL3AO]

RL3AO, sometimes the NHC goes higher than the ACTF.

I know. That's the difference between the best track at (0,6,12,18z) and the advisory at (3,9,15,21z).

[1900hurricane]

(go team best track!)

[RL3AO]

(go team best track!)

Go Team Let Python Do The Work!

[RL3AO]

Latest from Best Track

Accumulated Cyclone Energy for Fernanda (06E)
Time Intensity Adv. ACE Storm ACE
----------- ----------- ---------- -----------
2017071218 35 0.1225 0.1225
2017071300 40 0.16 0.2825
2017071306 45 0.2025 0.485
2017071312 55 0.3025 0.7875
2017071318 65 0.4225 1.21
2017071400 75 0.5625 1.7725
2017071406 80 0.64 2.4125
2017071412 95 0.9025 3.315
2017071418 110 1.21 4.525
2017071500 125 1.5625 6.0875
2017071506 125 1.5625 7.65
2017071512 120 1.44 9.09
2017071518 115 1.3225 10.4125
2017071600 110 1.21 11.6225
2017071606 115 1.3225 12.945

East Pacific Accumulated Cyclone Energy
Name System ACE Max Intensity
-------------- ------------ ---------------
Adrian (01E) 0.565 40
Beatriz (02E) 0.6025 40
Calvin (03E) 0.245 35
Dora (04E) 4.665 80
Eugene (05E) 8.1125 100
Fernanda (06E) 12.945 125

Season Total 27.135

[1900hurricane]

Through 12Z July 16th, the EPac is running away with the greatest ACE total so far.

[Ntxw]

EPAC is definitely holding up so far. WPAC got a little boost but needs a lot more. Atlantic is slightly below but average ACE there is low until Aug so not meaningful until a bit later.

Globally still way down

[1900hurricane]

It's hard to comprehend how bad the WPac is doing compared to what is more typical. Year to date ACE is near the lowest on record right now. It's above 1998 right now, and Talas will probably push this year above 1975, but that's about it.

[Kingarabian]

Lots of fuel in the WPac but no spark. Maybe we'll get some CPac-WPac systems going soon to get some ACE there.

[Ntxw]

Out of curiosity I pulled some ACE numbers that was posted July 16th 2016

2016 ACE: ATL - 6.845 - EPAC - 51.4900 - WPAC - 25.1125

Atlantic had about twice more ACE to date with the 3 June tropical storms and Alex in January
EPAC was busier with 3 majors (might still catch that) and 2 so far this July
WPAC was busier also compared to this year as we've all seen

[1900hurricane]

Lots of fuel in the WPac but no spark. Maybe we'll get some CPac-WPac systems going soon to get some ACE there.

The Western Pacific has been unusually hostile this year. Active TUTT, lots of subsidence, and a largely missing monsoon trough. That could change towards the end of July though. I've mentioned it in the blog entry I posted earlier today, but it might be possible to see some activity to close out the month. At the very least, the background state appears to be shifting a little more favorably.