Tropical Disturbance around 45W (Invest 95L is up)
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Tropical Disturbance around 45W (Invest 95L is up)
The GFS, CMC, and UKMET have been hinting at this wave to develop a little, it certainly looks to be a strong wave regardless of development. The 12z Euro came in with tad stronger look.
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- AtlanticWind
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Re: Tropical Disturbance around 45W
Tons or convection out there, I think there could be a small chance for something to get going.
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Re: Tropical Disturbance around 45W
18Z GFS looks like it may want to develop it.
Tons of LL Convergence and UL Divergence here.
Tons of LL Convergence and UL Divergence here.
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- tarheelprogrammer
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Re: Tropical Disturbance around 45W
Yeah it looks like the models are hinting at this forming, and then running into the buzz saw of shear. It is an impressive wave, and it was when it came off of Africa. It would still be impressive none the less.
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Re: Tropical Disturbance around 45W
The Op-Gfs and Para both agree but it is 2-3 degrees north of Bret in the Para.
Within 48-72 hours too so it is close in range.
Within 48-72 hours too so it is close in range.
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Re: Tropical Disturbance around 45W
It looks exactly like Bret. Development on the western edge of the monsoon trough and just SE of an upper tropospheric trough. It gets a couple days of enhanced upper divergence thanks to the 200mb jet before running into the 200mb westerlies near the islands.
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Re: Tropical Disturbance around 45W
Same general pattern but slightly further north in development. With the Ecmwf, Cmc, Ukmet and Gfs on board within the next 48-72 hours the chances looking really good. I'd expect the nhc to highlight it at 8pm...
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- Kingarabian
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Re: Tropical Disturbance around 45W
Yeah I wouldn't look at the Euro for these particular storms. Has a hard time getting this right. GFS does a lot better in these situations.
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Re: Tropical Disturbance around 45W
Most likely won't develop imo, too much shear once it enters the carribean.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: Tropical Disturbance around 45W
AutoPenalti wrote:Most likely won't develop imo, too much shear once it enters the carribean.
No one is doubting the shear in the Caribbean. If it develops it would be before then.
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Re: Tropical Disturbance around 45W
RL3AO wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:Most likely won't develop imo, too much shear once it enters the carribean.
No one is doubting the shear in the Caribbean. If it develops it would be before then.
Is it climo based that we are having so much shear for this month? What's causing it exactly?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: Tropical Disturbance around 45W
If this area develops to the intensity of TD4 before the islands it has a chance. Our savior TUTT might not dig far enough south to shear it apart. The waves passing through the Caribbean seem to be under light shear, but a strong TD might survive.
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Re: Tropical Disturbance around 45W
AutoPenalti wrote:Is it climo based that we are having so much shear for this month? What's causing it exactly?
Shear is slightly below the climatological averages in the Caribbean this month. It just goes to show how inhospitable July is.
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Re: Tropical Disturbance around 45W
AutoPenalti wrote:RL3AO wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:Most likely won't develop imo, too much shear once it enters the carribean.
No one is doubting the shear in the Caribbean. If it develops it would be before then.
Is it climo based that we are having so much shear for this month? What's causing it exactly?
It is perfectly normal to have strong shear within the MDR and Caribbean in July. What is causing it? The tutt in the case of the eastern Caribbean.
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Re: Tropical Disturbance around 45W
Nimbus wrote:If this area develops to the intensity of TD4 before the islands it has a chance. Our savior TUTT might not dig far enough south to shear it apart. The waves passing through the Caribbean seem to be under light shear, but a strong TD might survive.
If anything, the TUTT might be what gives this life by providing enhanced upper-level divergence. It'll be the 200mb Caribbean westerlies that shear it apart.
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Re: Tropical Disturbance around 45W
Sciencerocks wrote:
It is perfectly normal to have strong shear within the MDR and Caribbean in July. What is causing it? The tutt in the case of the eastern Caribbean.
What TUTT in the Caribbean? Can you show us on a map where it is? Not all shear is caused by a TUTT.
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Re: Tropical Disturbance around 45W
I'm thinking this would be a quick TD if it does get its act together. Like I said above, regardless still going to be a strong wave for the Lesser Antilles.
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- gatorcane
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Re: Tropical Disturbance around 45W
This could very well get a mention by NHC at 8pm EST. Most models show a pretty good vorticity developing before this reaches the Lesser Antilles.
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