WPAC: BANYAN - Tropical Storm

[euro6208]

[1900hurricane]

Banyan might be dealing with a touch of shear at its northwest quadrant.

[doomhaMwx]

At 00z today, JTWC estimated Banyan to be a 90kt(1-min) Category 2 Typhoon...

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (BANYAN)
WARNING NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 14W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 177 NM NORTHWEST OF
WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
TIGHTLY WOUND SYSTEM WITH COMPACT RING OF PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION AND A PINHOLE EYE FEATURE, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS
AND IS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING OF T5.0 (90
KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST
FEEDING INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF TO THE EAST, AND A POINT-SOURCE
ANALYZED DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO VERY
LOW SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT, AND TY 14W IS TRACKING OVER VERY WARM
WATER TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TY 14W IS TRACKING
NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 14W WILL TRACK POLEWARD OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD GUIDED BY
THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE. WARM SSTS WILL PERSIST WITH EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND TY 14W WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS. AROUND TAU 24 TO
36 AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM
INTRODUCING SOME RESISTANCE TO POLEWARD OUTFLOW, THUS HALTING THE
INTENSIFICATION TREND. AROUND TAU 48 A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP ERODING THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. EVENTUALLY THE TROUGH WILL CAPTURE TY 14W BY TAU 72 AND SSTS
WILL COOL AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 14W WILL ACCELERATE NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF THE STR AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.
TS BANYAN SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 96 AS
IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY,
BUT THERE IS STILL A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE
STR AXIS AND ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD. BECAUSE OF THIS
UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS OVERALL MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (BANYAN)
WARNING NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 14W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 201 NM NORTHWEST
OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A RAGGED 10-NM EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH EXCELLENT CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER, MSI ALSO SHOWS
A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE NORTH
QUADRANT RESULTING FROM INCREASED NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). DESPITE A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND, THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. TY 14W IS TRACKING
POLEWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 14W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 60, TY BANYAN WILL
BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AND TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT). OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK BASED
ON THE TIGHT MODEL AGREEMENT. TY 14W IS FORECAST TO RE-INTENSIFY TO
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 24 BUT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER COOLER SST AND VWS
INCREASES.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT
BY TAU 96 AS IT BECOMES FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND GAINS WEAK FRONTAL CHRACTERISTICS. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES SOMEWHAT, HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[HURAKAN]

Northerly shear affecting Banyan

[1900hurricane]

DTs are still coming in at 5.0 (LLC embedded in black or colder), but it's pretty clear structurally that Banyan is down from peak intensity. I'm thinking chances are pretty good that it was at or above 100 kt for 18Z yesterday.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (BANYAN)
WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 14W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 238 NM NORTHWEST OF
WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A PERSISTENT AND COMPACT CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH WEAK BANDING
FEATURES. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION DUE TO
THE OVERCAST LAYER OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, AND IS BASED
ON SATELLITE FIXES AND A 131632Z AMSU-B IMAGE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
RELATED TO A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH HAS BEEN HINDERING THE
SYSTEM ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, BUT OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS THERE IS INDICATION ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THAT VWS IS STARTING TO RELAX. OTHERWISE, OUTFLOW IS IN THE
EQUATORWARD DIRECTION IS FAIRLY ROBUST. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE ALSO
SUPPORTIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AROUND 30 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TY
14W IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 14W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 36. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE SOME OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE TROUGH PASSES TO THE
EAST AND SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY WARM. THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL ANOTHER BRIEF INTENSIFICATION PHASE REACHING A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS. BEYOND TAU 24 UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO DETERIORATE AS THE TY 14W TRACKS OVER INCREASINGLY
COOLER WATERS. BEYOND TAU 48 ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SYSTEM
AND TY 14W WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AND TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS
IT ROUNDS THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND BEGINS EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TY 14W IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU
72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME DEGREE OF DIVERGENCE BUT
GOOD GROUPING OVERALL. DESPITE THE MILD UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS
OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

Looks like some dry air managed to get in with the shear. With the system only moving further from the tropics, I'm thinking Banyan is probably past peak intensity.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (BANYAN)
WARNING NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 14W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 263 NM NORTHWEST OF
WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
PERSISTENT AND COMPACT CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION STRUGGLING TO REFORM
AN EYE. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE WHICH IS BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES
AND A 132301Z AMSU-B IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90
KNOTS, AND IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.0
(90 KNOTS) FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. OUTFLOW IS SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT, BUT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ALOFT IS CREATING SOME
RESISTANCE ON THE POLEWARD CHANNEL. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS ALSO
RELAXED A BIT IN THE LAST SIX HOURS, AND SSTS IN THE REGION ARE
SUPPORTIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AROUND, 30 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TY
14W IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 14W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 36. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SOME OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE TROUGH PASSES
TO THE EAST AND SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY WARM. THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL ANOTHER BRIEF INTENSIFICATION PHASE REACHING A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS. BEYOND TAU 24 UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO DETERIORATE AS THE TY 14W TRACKS OVER INCREASINGLY
COOLER WATERS. BEYOND TAU 48 ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SYSTEM
AND TY 14W WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AND TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS
IT ROUNDS THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND BEGINS EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TY 14W IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU
72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, BUT
NAVGEM AND COAMPS REMAIN THE WESTERN MOST OUTLIERS. OTHERWISE THERE
IS TIGHT GROUPING OF THE REMAINING TRACKERS, LENDING OVERALL HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (BANYAN)
WARNING NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 14W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 312 NM NORTHWEST
OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT
SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER. A
140348Z NOAA-19 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH EXCELLENT CONFIDENCE. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A GRADUALLY IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WITH DECREASING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 90 KNOTS AND A 140347Z SATCON ESTIMATE
OF 80 KNOTS. TY 14W IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 14W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 36. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO A PERIOD
OF IMPROVED POLEWARD VENTING AND BRIEF PERIOD OF RE-INTENSIFICATION
TO A PEAK OF 95 KNOTS AT TAU 24. BEYOND TAU 36, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEGRADE WITH SST VALUES
DECREASING BELOW 26C AND MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES.
ADDITIONALLY, TY 14W WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
STR AND BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TY 14W WILL COMPLETE
ETT BY TAU 72 AS IT BECOMES FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND GAINS WEAK FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM AND COAMPS-TC, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

It's venting nicely again and the eye seems to be reorganizing (waiting for latest MW)
Northwesterly shear is still bugging it though.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (BANYAN)
WARNING NR 16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 14W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 402 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
10 NM RAGGED EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE AND IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
85 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY BELOW MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND RJTD OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, IS IN AN AREA OF LOW
(10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA
OF WARM (29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). TY 14W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 14W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24 THE SYSTEM
WILL ROUND THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CAUSING IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND ALLOWING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RE-INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM WINDS DURING RE-
INTENSIFICATION ARE FORECAST TO BE 95 KNOTS AT AROUND TAU 24. AFTER
TAU 24, TY 14W WILL TRACK INTO AN AREA OF LOWER (<26 CELSIUS) SST AS
IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND UNDERGO ETT. TY BANYAN IS FORECAST TO
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 AS IT BECOMES FULLY IMBEDDED WITHIN THE
STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND TAKES ON FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE
IS HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[1900hurricane]

Banyan sure has gotten small.

[euro6208]

90 knots.

WDPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (BANYAN)
WARNING NR 17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 14W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 456 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY CLOUD FILLED, 10 NM RAGGED EYE FEATURE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
VISIBLE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON
MULTI-AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. THE DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE FLUCTUATED
SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS DUE TO CHANGES IN THE SYSTEMS
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, SPECIFICALLY THE EYE FEATURE, LENDING FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
SYSTEM LACKS A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL BUT HAS A STRENGTHENING
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TY 14W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND IS
TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM (28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). TY 14W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 14W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12 THE SYSTEM
WILL ROUND THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AS IT RECURVES BACK TO
THE NORTHEAST, ACCELERATES, AND BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT). OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, A BRIEF PERIOD OF RE-INTENSIFICATION
IS FORECAST AS A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES TO THE NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM CAUSING IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM WINDS DURING
RE-INTENSIFICATION ARE FORECAST TO BE 95 KNOTS AT AROUND TAU 12.
AFTER TAU 12, TY 14W WILL TRACK INTO AN AREA OF LOWER (<26 CELSIUS)
SST AND INCREASED VWS AS IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND UNDERGO A SLOW ETT.
TY BANYAN IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 AS IT BECOMES FULLY
IMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND TAKES ON
FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM AND COAMPS-TC, WHICH TRACK
THE SYSTEM MORE NORTHERLY THAN THE REMAINING GUIDANCE. DESPITE THE
NAVGEM AND COAMPS-TC OUTLIERS, THERE IS HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (BANYAN) WARNING NR 20//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 14W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 582 NM NORTHEAST OF
MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 151744Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS
SHEARED INTO THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGE AND ANIMATED IR
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS HEDGED ON THE UPPER
END OF MULTI AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
T4.0 TO T 4.5 (65-77 KNOTS) AND IS SUPPORTED BY A SATCON ESTIMATE OF
74 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), AND IS TRACKING THROUGH COOLER (26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). IN THE UPPER LEVELS, TY 14W HAS POLEWARD OUTFLOW
THAT WRAPS AROUND THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND INTO A STRONG
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TY BANYAN IS ROUNDING THE NORTHWESTERN
EXTENT OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE
EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY BANYAN IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT RECURVES
AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR AND ACCELERATES.
INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WESTERLIES OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH LOWER SST
(<26 CELSIUS) WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TY BANYAN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL IMBED IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TY 14W IS
FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48 BECOMING A COLD CORE LOW WITH
GALE-FORCE WINDS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

last hurrah

[1900hurricane]

I was about to say basically the same thing. Banyan is now north of 30ºN and shooting off towards the mid-latitudes, but it looks to be trying one last bout of intensification.