Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche (Is Invest 95L)
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- cycloneye
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Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche (Is Invest 95L)
2 PM TWO:
A trough of low pressure, located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms that
extent from the Yucatan Peninsula westward into the Bay of Campeche.
Environmental conditions are forecast to remain unfavorable for
significant development as the system moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
A trough of low pressure, located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms that
extent from the Yucatan Peninsula westward into the Bay of Campeche.
Environmental conditions are forecast to remain unfavorable for
significant development as the system moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
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- Extratropical94
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Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche
12Z Euro develops this.
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
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Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche
And then loses it 24 hours later after sending it into Mexico.
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
- CyclonicFury
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Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche
I think we could see a quick spin-up in the Bay of Campeche. It's near the peak of the season and we have seen this occur numerous times in recent years.
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche
We already have a spin to the Low level clouds in the very bottom of the BOC, I find it had to believe that it would sit down there 4 or 5 days before developing.
https://ibb.co/iUgLda
https://ibb.co/iUgLda
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- cycloneye
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Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche
8 PM TWO:
A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some
slow development of this system is possible during the next few
days while it drifts northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some
slow development of this system is possible during the next few
days while it drifts northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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- SuperMarioBros99thx
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Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche
So it looks like that convection on southwestern Gulf managed to survive long time enough to reform itself (and also merged with that TW) into a new convection on it's own. Great convection!
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My opinions are mine and SHOULD not be treated as an official source of information. PLEASE see National Hurricane Center, or any other meteorological agencies, for that matter. By the way, I was born and came from Indonesia, which is rarely hit by tropical cyclones, but regardless, I have LOTS of interest in meteorology.
- Extratropical94
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Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche
2AM:
A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some
slow development of this system is possible during the next few
days while it drifts northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some
slow development of this system is possible during the next few
days while it drifts northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
- Extratropical94
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Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche
8AM:
A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for some
slow development of this system while it drifts west-northwestward
and remains over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next
few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for some
slow development of this system while it drifts west-northwestward
and remains over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next
few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
- SuperMarioBros99thx
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Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche
Invest 95L commences!
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My opinions are mine and SHOULD not be treated as an official source of information. PLEASE see National Hurricane Center, or any other meteorological agencies, for that matter. By the way, I was born and came from Indonesia, which is rarely hit by tropical cyclones, but regardless, I have LOTS of interest in meteorology.
Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche
Don't see anything up on the NRL site for a 95L but agree that might soon, pretty good model support.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Extratropical94
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Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche
2PM:
A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for some
slow development of this system while it drifts west-northwestward
and remains over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next
few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for some
slow development of this system while it drifts west-northwestward
and remains over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next
few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
- tropicwatch
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Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche
Really surprised no Invest yet.
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Tropicwatch
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- cycloneye
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Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche
panamatropicwatch wrote:Really surprised no Invest yet.
Will be up soon.
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- Extratropical94
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Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche
Possible recon mission on Wednesday afternoon.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. 3-HRLY FIXES BEGINNING AT 06/2100Z ON IRMA.
B. POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST AT 06/1800Z NEAR 21.5N 96.0W.
A. 3-HRLY FIXES BEGINNING AT 06/2100Z ON IRMA.
B. POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST AT 06/1800Z NEAR 21.5N 96.0W.
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche
Looks very healthy. You can clearly see the low-level circulation and there are plenty of thunderstorms building right over top of it.
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Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche
canefan wrote:Looks very healthy. You can clearly see the low-level circulation and there are plenty of thunderstorms building right over top of it.
You're right. Just saw your post on the Irma models thread. Definitely looks like greater than a 10% chance at this point.
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Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche
Yeah, there is a quite well defined circualtion and increasing convection. it might be sheared but there plenty of model support for this to be a TS soon.
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If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
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If there is nothing before... then just ask
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I believe the sky is falling...
Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche
on sat loops it looks to be moving off the west rapidly
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- MGC
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Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche
Yep, well defined circulation headed to the west. Lots of shear though....MGC
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