EPAC: NORMA - Troipical Storm
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cycloneye
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EPAC: NORMA - Troipical Storm
EP, 97, 2017091318, , BEST, 0, 150N, 1100W, 25, 1008, DB
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972017 09/13/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 40 46 56 69 74 76 71 63 52 41
V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 40 46 56 69 74 76 71 63 52 35
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 30 32 38 44 50 54 56 53 47 33
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 21 16 14 16 12 8 5 9 13 20 17 25 30
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -1 -4 -3 -3 -4 -3 0 -5 -4 7 -1
SHEAR DIR 48 54 57 64 78 134 138 171 126 145 179 195 229
SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.4 28.7 28.2 28.5 28.4 29.3 30.5 29.9
POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 152 156 158 158 150 143 148 149 159 170 166
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -51.6 -51.2 -50.5 -50.2 -50.1 -50.4 -50.1 -49.3 -49.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.3
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 9 8 7 7
700-500 MB RH 62 61 59 60 56 54 53 52 53 49 46 41 44
MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 17 22 23 24 28 28 27 25 22 14 6
850 MB ENV VOR 21 0 -1 6 20 34 35 54 52 67 45 68 42
200 MB DIV 77 83 93 109 91 55 15 4 23 30 34 55 61
700-850 TADV -7 -6 -9 -4 -1 0 -1 0 -1 -1 -4 -5 19
LAND (KM) 722 725 672 579 449 281 324 322 341 195 85 28 -219
LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.3 15.7 16.2 17.0 18.8 20.1 20.0 19.9 21.6 24.3 26.5 28.7
LONG(DEG W) 110.0 110.3 110.0 109.3 108.4 107.8 108.8 110.0 109.3 108.7 109.2 109.8 108.5
STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 7 10 11 8 7 3 6 12 14 10 15
HEAT CONTENT 19 19 20 22 24 31 17 10 14 11 25 22 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 22.8
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 27. 30. 33. 34. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -2. -5. -7. -9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 6. 9. 12. 18. 18. 18. 14. 10. 1. -8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 15. 21. 31. 44. 49. 51. 46. 38. 27. 16.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.0 110.0
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972017 INVEST 09/13/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 3.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.17 1.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.19 0.9
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.65 2.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 2.9
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 2.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.96 -1.1
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.40 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 122.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.75 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.3 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.2 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.4% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.2% 16.7% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.5% 23.4% 12.8% 4.1% 2.4% 17.5% 21.6% 33.3%
Bayesian: 0.2% 4.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 1.2% 1.0%
Consensus: 0.9% 15.8% 8.5% 1.4% 0.8% 11.4% 13.2% 11.4%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972017 INVEST 09/13/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972017 09/13/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 40 46 56 69 74 76 71 63 52 41
V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 40 46 56 69 74 76 71 63 52 35
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 30 32 38 44 50 54 56 53 47 33
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 21 16 14 16 12 8 5 9 13 20 17 25 30
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -1 -4 -3 -3 -4 -3 0 -5 -4 7 -1
SHEAR DIR 48 54 57 64 78 134 138 171 126 145 179 195 229
SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.4 28.7 28.2 28.5 28.4 29.3 30.5 29.9
POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 152 156 158 158 150 143 148 149 159 170 166
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -51.6 -51.2 -50.5 -50.2 -50.1 -50.4 -50.1 -49.3 -49.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.3
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 9 8 7 7
700-500 MB RH 62 61 59 60 56 54 53 52 53 49 46 41 44
MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 17 22 23 24 28 28 27 25 22 14 6
850 MB ENV VOR 21 0 -1 6 20 34 35 54 52 67 45 68 42
200 MB DIV 77 83 93 109 91 55 15 4 23 30 34 55 61
700-850 TADV -7 -6 -9 -4 -1 0 -1 0 -1 -1 -4 -5 19
LAND (KM) 722 725 672 579 449 281 324 322 341 195 85 28 -219
LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.3 15.7 16.2 17.0 18.8 20.1 20.0 19.9 21.6 24.3 26.5 28.7
LONG(DEG W) 110.0 110.3 110.0 109.3 108.4 107.8 108.8 110.0 109.3 108.7 109.2 109.8 108.5
STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 7 10 11 8 7 3 6 12 14 10 15
HEAT CONTENT 19 19 20 22 24 31 17 10 14 11 25 22 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 22.8
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 27. 30. 33. 34. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -2. -5. -7. -9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 6. 9. 12. 18. 18. 18. 14. 10. 1. -8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 15. 21. 31. 44. 49. 51. 46. 38. 27. 16.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.0 110.0
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972017 INVEST 09/13/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 3.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.17 1.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.19 0.9
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.65 2.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 2.9
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 2.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.96 -1.1
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.40 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 122.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.75 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.3 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.2 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.4% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.2% 16.7% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.5% 23.4% 12.8% 4.1% 2.4% 17.5% 21.6% 33.3%
Bayesian: 0.2% 4.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 1.2% 1.0%
Consensus: 0.9% 15.8% 8.5% 1.4% 0.8% 11.4% 13.2% 11.4%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972017 INVEST 09/13/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E
This looks to be the one I believe... GFS consistently makes this a strong major hurricane. Baja California needs to monitor this closely.
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zeehag
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E
Kingarabian wrote:This looks to be the one I believe... GFS consistently makes this a strong major hurricane. Baja California needs to monitor this closely.
i donot like the track i am seeing now. this is a lil too close for comfort. a major in here would be hurtful to many.
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CYCLONE MIKE
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E
Kingarabian wrote:This looks to be the one I believe... GFS consistently makes this a strong major hurricane. Baja California needs to monitor this closely.
Correct. The gfs has been showing this hitting the Cabo area for just about every run since this past weekend. Haven't looked at today's runs yet though. Was supposed to be going down there at the end of the minth, guess will find out shortly if I have to reschedule or not. Been trying to spread the word on a travel forum and nobody knew anything about the possibility of this.
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Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E
CYCLONE MIKE wrote:Kingarabian wrote:This looks to be the one I believe... GFS consistently makes this a strong major hurricane. Baja California needs to monitor this closely.
Correct. The gfs has been showing this hitting the Cabo area for just about every run since this past weekend. Haven't looked at today's runs yet though. Was supposed to be going down there at the end of the minth, guess will find out shortly if I have to reschedule or not. Been trying to spread the word on a travel forum and nobody knew anything about the possibility of this.
Although models haven't been superb this year, this track by the GFS is just inside of short range and has considerable climo support. So a threat towards southern Baja definitely has credence in my opinion.
Right on in warning those folks on that travel forum. Last place you want to be is in a foreign country smashed by a hurricane.
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E
Kingarabian,why is a big difference in track between GFS that goes to BCS and Euro that stays well away from land?
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Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E
cycloneye wrote: Kingarabian,why is a big difference in track between GFS that goes to BCS and Euro that stays well away from land?
Looks to me that the GFS has a considerably stronger trough which digs lower, to the N of the system, compared to the Euro.
So with the Euro overdoing ridges and the GFS overdoing trough's, you would split their solutions -- which would still pose a threat to Baja California.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Wed Sep 13, 2017 4:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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CYCLONE MIKE
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E
Kingarabian,
This is the kind if responses I received today. Some people just seem to live in a world of denial and just assume since it's nothing right now, it won't be anything
People!! Chill!! It is not a hurricane or even a tropical storm..... It is a CHANCE of forming a tropical depression (rain storm). Even IF it forms, there is still a good chance it won't even hit Cabo. No need to panic. Yes, you may get rain.... You won't melt....lol
Don't worry a Hurricane is NOT heading to Cabo San Lucas. However if you click the link to the nhc above you will see that there is a possibility of a tropical depression that may bring some rain.
This is the kind if responses I received today. Some people just seem to live in a world of denial and just assume since it's nothing right now, it won't be anything
People!! Chill!! It is not a hurricane or even a tropical storm..... It is a CHANCE of forming a tropical depression (rain storm). Even IF it forms, there is still a good chance it won't even hit Cabo. No need to panic. Yes, you may get rain.... You won't melt....lol
Don't worry a Hurricane is NOT heading to Cabo San Lucas. However if you click the link to the nhc above you will see that there is a possibility of a tropical depression that may bring some rain.
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This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E
CYCLONE MIKE wrote:Kingarabian,
This is the kind if responses I received today. Some people just seem to live in a world of denial and just assume since it's nothing right now, it won't be anything
People!! Chill!! It is not a hurricane or even a tropical storm..... It is a CHANCE of forming a tropical depression (rain storm). Even IF it forms, there is still a good chance it won't even hit Cabo. No need to panic. Yes, you may get rain.... You won't melt....lol
Don't worry a Hurricane is NOT heading to Cabo San Lucas. However if you click the link to the nhc above you will see that there is a possibility of a tropical depression that may bring some rain.
What can you do, that's just the way people are unfortunately.
Hopefully the Euro is right and it goes out to sea. But the Euro has been all over the place with this system if you look at its past runs, flip-flopping between a Baja hit/OTS solution, while the GFS remains very adamant about a Baja hit. 18z GFS is running so let's see what it shows.
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E
18z GFS is a repetition of landfall at Los Cabos/BCS.
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CYCLONE MIKE
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E
And in 90hrs. Going to be a big hit or huge bust for the gfs. With the euro being so different within the time frame leaves a big question mark still. I know the gfs has been beyond bad but hard not to notice within 90hrs and been so consistent run after run.
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E
NHC sides with ECMWF so far.
A broad area of low pressure is located several hundred miles south
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Shower
activity continues to show signs of organization, and a tropical
depression is expected to form within the next couple of days while
the system moves slowly northwestward. For more information on
this system, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Shower
activity continues to show signs of organization, and a tropical
depression is expected to form within the next couple of days while
the system moves slowly northwestward. For more information on
this system, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E
Favoring the GFS atm largely due to historical model biases in this part of the world.
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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is gradually
becoming organized, and a tropical depression is expected to form
within the next couple of days while the system moves slowly
northwestward. For more information on this system, please see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is gradually
becoming organized, and a tropical depression is expected to form
within the next couple of days while the system moves slowly
northwestward. For more information on this system, please see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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SuperMarioBros99thx
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 192
- Age: 22
- Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2017 7:38 am
- Location: Banjarmasin, Indonesia
Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E
This is gonna be Norma before 15E going to do that.
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My opinions are mine and SHOULD not be treated as an official source of information. PLEASE see National Hurricane Center, or any other meteorological agencies, for that matter. By the way, I was born and came from Indonesia, which is rarely hit by tropical cyclones, but regardless, I have LOTS of interest in meteorology.
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Extratropical94
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 3535
- Age: 29
- Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
- Location: Hamburg, Germany
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system
located about 400 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula continue to show signs of organization, and it
appears that a tropical depression could be forming. If these
trends continue, advisories will likely be initiated on this system
later today. The low is expected to drift northward during the next
couple of days, and interests in the southern portion of Baja
California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. For more
information on this system, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.
located about 400 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula continue to show signs of organization, and it
appears that a tropical depression could be forming. If these
trends continue, advisories will likely be initiated on this system
later today. The low is expected to drift northward during the next
couple of days, and interests in the southern portion of Baja
California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. For more
information on this system, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
-
Extratropical94
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 3535
- Age: 29
- Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
- Location: Hamburg, Germany
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E
97E INVEST 170914 1200 17.0N 109.5W EPAC 35 1004
Looks like you were right. BT is at 35 knots and advisories will likely be initiated later today.
Edit: Only a few moments after I posted this they update the BT file to change 97E INVEST to 17E NORMA:
17E NORMA 170914 1200 17.0N 109.5W EPAC 35 1004
Looks like you were right. BT is at 35 knots and advisories will likely be initiated later today.
Edit: Only a few moments after I posted this they update the BT file to change 97E INVEST to 17E NORMA:
17E NORMA 170914 1200 17.0N 109.5W EPAC 35 1004
SuperMarioBros99thx wrote:This is gonna be Norma before 15E going to do that.
1 likes
54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15951
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* NORMA EP172017 09/14/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 43 48 54 67 77 83 78 73 64 51 51
V (KT) LAND 35 38 43 48 54 67 77 83 78 73 62 44 32
V (KT) LGEM 35 38 42 46 50 60 69 75 75 70 60 42 31
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 10 12 10 7 6 3 4 13 15 15 11 20 24
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -3 -4 -4 -2 -2 -3 -6 -4 4 10 0
SHEAR DIR 51 68 102 99 91 95 120 165 158 163 194 207 257
SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.3 27.7 27.5 28.7 30.5 29.4
POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 153 150 150 154 154 146 139 137 152 173 162
200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -51.3 -51.8 -52.1 -50.7 -50.8 -49.9 -50.3 -50.0 -50.0 -49.7 -50.1
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.2 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 9 8 10 8 11 7 9 6 10 9
700-500 MB RH 58 55 56 56 57 59 57 50 44 44 44 47 52
MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 18 20 22 25 27 29 25 23 18 7 LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 24 7 11 10 7 24 36 61 38 28 39 22 5
200 MB DIV 85 70 75 83 64 84 37 44 -13 -5 19 45 44
700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 -3 -2 -1 -2 -3 -3 -4 -3 -6 32
LAND (KM) 543 490 441 437 443 363 285 224 100 20 37 -111 -503
LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.7 18.2 18.4 18.3 18.6 19.6 21.1 22.0 23.0 24.4 26.6 28.3
LONG(DEG W) 109.5 109.4 109.2 109.3 109.3 108.6 108.3 109.0 110.0 110.3 109.9 108.1 104.5
STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 4 1 1 5 7 8 5 6 11 16 19
HEAT CONTENT 23 22 23 21 22 30 30 15 9 8 25 44 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 32.4
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 23. 24. 25. 26.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 4. 2. 1. -0. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 18. 13. 10. 3. -9. -8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 19. 32. 42. 48. 43. 38. 29. 16. 16.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.0 109.5
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172017 NORMA 09/14/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 3.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.56 4.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 22.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.21 1.2
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.57 2.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 2.4
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 -1.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.36 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 210.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.64 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.5 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 11.0% 23.3% 18.1% 15.3% 12.9% 22.9% 21.0% 12.1%
Logistic: 2.4% 11.3% 7.8% 4.5% 2.0% 25.6% 36.2% 13.1%
Bayesian: 1.5% 19.1% 3.6% 0.9% 0.1% 4.6% 5.9% 4.8%
Consensus: 5.0% 17.9% 9.8% 6.9% 5.0% 17.7% 21.1% 10.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172017 NORMA 09/14/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* NORMA EP172017 09/14/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 43 48 54 67 77 83 78 73 64 51 51
V (KT) LAND 35 38 43 48 54 67 77 83 78 73 62 44 32
V (KT) LGEM 35 38 42 46 50 60 69 75 75 70 60 42 31
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 10 12 10 7 6 3 4 13 15 15 11 20 24
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -3 -4 -4 -2 -2 -3 -6 -4 4 10 0
SHEAR DIR 51 68 102 99 91 95 120 165 158 163 194 207 257
SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.3 27.7 27.5 28.7 30.5 29.4
POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 153 150 150 154 154 146 139 137 152 173 162
200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -51.3 -51.8 -52.1 -50.7 -50.8 -49.9 -50.3 -50.0 -50.0 -49.7 -50.1
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.2 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 9 8 10 8 11 7 9 6 10 9
700-500 MB RH 58 55 56 56 57 59 57 50 44 44 44 47 52
MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 18 20 22 25 27 29 25 23 18 7 LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 24 7 11 10 7 24 36 61 38 28 39 22 5
200 MB DIV 85 70 75 83 64 84 37 44 -13 -5 19 45 44
700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 -3 -2 -1 -2 -3 -3 -4 -3 -6 32
LAND (KM) 543 490 441 437 443 363 285 224 100 20 37 -111 -503
LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.7 18.2 18.4 18.3 18.6 19.6 21.1 22.0 23.0 24.4 26.6 28.3
LONG(DEG W) 109.5 109.4 109.2 109.3 109.3 108.6 108.3 109.0 110.0 110.3 109.9 108.1 104.5
STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 4 1 1 5 7 8 5 6 11 16 19
HEAT CONTENT 23 22 23 21 22 30 30 15 9 8 25 44 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 32.4
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 23. 24. 25. 26.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 4. 2. 1. -0. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 18. 13. 10. 3. -9. -8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 19. 32. 42. 48. 43. 38. 29. 16. 16.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.0 109.5
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172017 NORMA 09/14/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 3.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.56 4.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 22.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.21 1.2
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.57 2.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 2.4
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 -1.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.36 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 210.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.64 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.5 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 11.0% 23.3% 18.1% 15.3% 12.9% 22.9% 21.0% 12.1%
Logistic: 2.4% 11.3% 7.8% 4.5% 2.0% 25.6% 36.2% 13.1%
Bayesian: 1.5% 19.1% 3.6% 0.9% 0.1% 4.6% 5.9% 4.8%
Consensus: 5.0% 17.9% 9.8% 6.9% 5.0% 17.7% 21.1% 10.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172017 NORMA 09/14/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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