Tropical Wave southwest of Cabo Verde Islands (is invest 96L)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1970
Age: 25
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Tropical Wave southwest of Cabo Verde Islands (is invest 96L)

#1 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Sep 13, 2017 3:02 pm

New tropical wave introduced into the TWD near 10N 19W. This seems to be the wave that the Euro develops into a tropical storm in about 4-5 days near the Lesser Antilles. The 12z GFS also appeared to take it into the Caribbean as a weak low. This is definitely one to watch, it will need to be monitored as it could take a similar track to Irma (although it should be much weaker if it develops). Expecting a mention from NHC soon.
0 likes   
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: Tropical Wave southeast of Cabo Verde Islands

#2 Postby Alyono » Wed Sep 13, 2017 3:17 pm

I'd give this a 50 percent chance of development over the next 7 days
3 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: Tropical Wave southeast of Cabo Verde Islands

#3 Postby Alyono » Wed Sep 13, 2017 4:23 pm

Disturbance may be southwest of the Cape Verde Islands based upon the tpw rotation
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138891
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Tropical Wave southwest of Cabo Verde Islands

#4 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 13, 2017 4:26 pm

Yes,that is where it is.Fixed the title.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: Tropical Wave southwest of Cabo Verde Islands

#5 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:23 pm

18Z GFS going with Caribbean development:

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
N2FSU
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1010
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: Tallahassee, FL

Re: Tropical Wave southwest of Cabo Verde Islands

#6 Postby N2FSU » Wed Sep 13, 2017 6:17 pm

Is this what the Euro starts developing in 72hrs and tracks to just NE of PR in 10 days?
0 likes   

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1970
Age: 25
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: Tropical Wave southwest of Cabo Verde Islands

#7 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Sep 13, 2017 6:43 pm

8PM TWO 10/30%
A tropical wave located about 600 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Some gradual development of this system is possible over the next
several days while it moves westward at around 15 mph across the
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
0 likes   
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: Tropical Wave southwest of Cabo Verde Islands

#8 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 13, 2017 6:45 pm

Image
0 likes   

Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6355
Age: 61
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

Re: Tropical Wave southwest of Cabo Verde Islands

#9 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Sep 13, 2017 6:56 pm

N2FSU wrote:Is this what the Euro starts developing in 72hrs and tracks to just NE of PR in 10 days?


Has to be, appears the GFS is a bit faster, imagine that?
0 likes   

User avatar
N2FSU
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1010
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: Tallahassee, FL

Re: Tropical Wave southwest of Cabo Verde Islands

#10 Postby N2FSU » Wed Sep 13, 2017 7:11 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
N2FSU
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1010
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: Tallahassee, FL

Re: Tropical Wave southwest of Cabo Verde Islands

#11 Postby N2FSU » Wed Sep 13, 2017 7:12 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
N2FSU
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1010
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: Tallahassee, FL

Re: Tropical Wave southwest of Cabo Verde Islands

#12 Postby N2FSU » Wed Sep 13, 2017 7:13 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
N2FSU
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1010
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: Tallahassee, FL

Re: Tropical Wave southwest of Cabo Verde Islands

#13 Postby N2FSU » Wed Sep 13, 2017 7:14 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: Tropical Wave southwest of Cabo Verde Islands

#14 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 13, 2017 7:14 pm

1 likes   

User avatar
SEASON_CANCELED
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 887
Joined: Mon Jul 06, 2009 5:17 am
Location: 8 Bit Charlie Sheen

Re: Tropical Wave southwest of Cabo Verde Islands

#15 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:25 pm

looks like crap imo
0 likes   
i am a big stupid ugly moron with an ugly face and a big butt and my butt stinks and i like to kiss my own butt

User avatar
BYG Jacob
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 893
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Aug 23, 2017 3:46 pm
Location: Tucson, Arizona

Re: Tropical Wave southwest of Cabo Verde Islands

#16 Postby BYG Jacob » Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:23 pm

SEASON_CANCELED wrote:looks like crap imo

Its still just a tropical wave, it isn't gonna look pretty.

Last few frames on satellite makes this look like its wrapping convection around it. Looks to be organizing pretty quickly.
1 likes   

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1970
Age: 25
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: Tropical Wave southwest of Cabo Verde Islands

#17 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:04 pm

This will likely take several days to organize. Don't really think it has much of a chance to become Lee until it's west of 50W.
0 likes   
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138891
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Tropical Wave southwest of Cabo Verde Islands

#18 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:46 pm

For me it looks good.

Image
3 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: Tropical Wave southwest of Cabo Verde Islands

#19 Postby Alyono » Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:26 pm

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 12.0N 48.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 17.09.2017 72 12.2N 50.2W 1007 33
1200UTC 17.09.2017 84 12.7N 53.4W 1003 39
0000UTC 18.09.2017 96 13.2N 55.3W 999 42
1200UTC 18.09.2017 108 13.5N 57.2W 994 48
0000UTC 19.09.2017 120 13.6N 58.6W 988 60
1200UTC 19.09.2017 132 14.1N 60.0W 981 68
0000UTC 20.09.2017 144 15.0N 61.8W 981 65

ukmet send a hurricane through the islands, south of where Irma hit though
0 likes   

User avatar
N2FSU
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1010
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: Tallahassee, FL

Re: Tropical Wave southwest of Cabo Verde Islands

#20 Postby N2FSU » Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:43 am

Up to 40%
Image
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: jhpigott, Lizzytiz1 and 79 guests