ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion
NHC is forecasting 95 kts just to the west of Dominica. If that eyewall closes and Maria takes off, that could be a little bit on the low end. It has about 24 hours until landfall/closest approach, so 105 kts seems very realistic IMO.
1 likes
- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion
RL3AO wrote:NHC is forecasting 95 kts just to the west of Dominica. If that eyewall closes and Maria takes off, that could be a little bit on the low end. It has about 24 hours until landfall/closest approach, so 105 kts seems very realistic IMO.
so what could be the implications in terms of winds for my island in Guadeloupe? Any thoughts? Thanks.
0 likes
Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion
Gustywind wrote:RL3AO wrote:NHC is forecasting 95 kts just to the west of Dominica. If that eyewall closes and Maria takes off, that could be a little bit on the low end. It has about 24 hours until landfall/closest approach, so 105 kts seems very realistic IMO.
so what could be the implications in terms of winds for my island in Guadeloupe? Any thoughts? Thanks.
If the northern eyewall passes over Guadeloupe, category 2 and 3 winds would be likely across a good chunk of the island.
0 likes
- flamingosun
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 198
- Joined: Wed Sep 15, 2004 4:51 am
- Location: Merritt Island, FL
Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion
From the latest NHC Public Advisory:
That's some small comfort for now, at least . . .
. . . but not the rate at which her overall wind field is expanding. You gotta wonder just how many of the Antilles she'll end up being able to touch by the time she makes her way across them. Right now is certainly the wrong time for ANY of them to get any more storm exposure of any kind at all!
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center,
That's some small comfort for now, at least . . .
and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).
. . . but not the rate at which her overall wind field is expanding. You gotta wonder just how many of the Antilles she'll end up being able to touch by the time she makes her way across them. Right now is certainly the wrong time for ANY of them to get any more storm exposure of any kind at all!
Last edited by flamingosun on Sun Sep 17, 2017 7:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23499
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion
Looks to be moving more west than WNW the past few hours:
1 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3949
- Age: 27
- Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
- Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion
gatorcane wrote:Looks to be moving more west than WNW the past few hours:
Most likely the convection that is building in to the west.
1 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
- ftolmsteen
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 121
- Joined: Mon Jun 25, 2007 6:34 am
- Location: Port Richey, FL
Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion
gatorcane wrote:Looks to be moving more west than WNW the past few hours:
Barbados radar picking up eyewall. Looks like it's moving just north of west.
http://barbadosweather.org/Composite/ki ... site=Sabre
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 33
- Joined: Sun Sep 10, 2017 1:09 pm
- Location: N. Georgia. Sick of FL
Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion
gatorcane wrote:Looks to be moving more west than WNW the past few hours:
Is it my imagination as a lay person, or is the most common phrase during the tracking of these storms "tracking more west than expected?"
2 likes
Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion
gailwarning wrote:gatorcane wrote:Looks to be moving more west than WNW the past few hours:
[img]https://s26.postimg.org/lq8d2bzbd/rgb_lalo-animated.gif[/
Is it my imagination as a lay person, or is the most common phrase during the tracking of these storms "tracking more west than expected?"
Is it said a lot on here? Yes. Is it often untrue that it's moving more west than expected? Yes.
3 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139066
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion
00z Best Track:
AL, 15, 2017091800, , BEST, 0, 140N, 580W, 75, 979 HU
AL, 15, 2017091800, , BEST, 0, 140N, 580W, 75, 979 HU
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: ATL: MARIA: Obs,Web Cams,Local Weather Statements: Leewards,U.S/BVI Virgin Islands.Puerto Rico,DR,Bahamas
Hi cyclone. Longtime storm2ker here. Love in rincón on west coast. Watching with huge amount of interest. Have a weather station here (barrio puntas) on Wunderground. Will post what I can when I can here. If the current track verifies we are not at all happy. Stay safe where u are and be in touch.
Rincón.
Rincón.
1 likes
- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion
cycloneye wrote:00z Best Track:
AL, 15, 2017091800, , BEST, 0, 140N, 580W, 75, 979 HU
waouw reaching now already 75 KTS!
0 likes
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33393
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion
TXNT29 KNES 180006
TCSNTL
A. 15L (MARIA)
B. 17/2345Z
C. 14.0N
D. 58.0W
E. THREE/GOES-E
F. T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...DT=5.0 BASED ON WH EMBEDDED CENTER. PT=4.5. MET=4.5. FT
IS BASED ON MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTLY OF POSITION. EYE APPARENT IN 17/2203
MICROWAVE.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
17/2203Z 14.0N 57.6W SSMIS
TCSNTL
A. 15L (MARIA)
B. 17/2345Z
C. 14.0N
D. 58.0W
E. THREE/GOES-E
F. T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...DT=5.0 BASED ON WH EMBEDDED CENTER. PT=4.5. MET=4.5. FT
IS BASED ON MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTLY OF POSITION. EYE APPARENT IN 17/2203
MICROWAVE.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
17/2203Z 14.0N 57.6W SSMIS
0 likes
- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion
cycloneye wrote:00z Best Track:
AL, 15, 2017091800, , BEST, 0, 140N, 580W, 75, 979 HU
Any link Luis ? thanks
0 likes
- DESTRUCTION5
- Category 5
- Posts: 4391
- Age: 42
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
- Location: Stuart, FL
Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion
RL3AO wrote:gailwarning wrote:gatorcane wrote:Looks to be moving more west than WNW the past few hours:
[img]https://s26.postimg.org/lq8d2bzbd/rgb_lalo-animated.gif[/
Is it my imagination as a lay person, or is the most common phrase during the tracking of these storms "tracking more west than expected?"
Is it said a lot on here? Yes. Is it often untrue that it's moving more west than expected? Yes.
Cept when endgame was Miami to Naples.
3 likes
GATOR NATION IS E V E R Y W H E R E !
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139066
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion
Gustywind wrote:cycloneye wrote:00z Best Track:
AL, 15, 2017091800, , BEST, 0, 140N, 580W, 75, 979 HU
Any link Luis ? thanks
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal152017.dat
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion
Very quiet in central Barbados right now almost eerily so
3 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 98 guests