ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[RL3AO]

NHC is forecasting 95 kts just to the west of Dominica. If that eyewall closes and Maria takes off, that could be a little bit on the low end. It has about 24 hours until landfall/closest approach, so 105 kts seems very realistic IMO.

[TJRE]

Radar from Barbados shows the eyewall in view

http://barbadosweather.org/Composite/ki ... site=Sabre

[Gustywind]

NHC is forecasting 95 kts just to the west of Dominica. If that eyewall closes and Maria takes off, that could be a little bit on the low end. It has about 24 hours until landfall/closest approach, so 105 kts seems very realistic IMO.

so what could be the implications in terms of winds for my island in Guadeloupe? Any thoughts? Thanks.

[RL3AO]

NHC is forecasting 95 kts just to the west of Dominica. If that eyewall closes and Maria takes off, that could be a little bit on the low end. It has about 24 hours until landfall/closest approach, so 105 kts seems very realistic IMO.

so what could be the implications in terms of winds for my island in Guadeloupe? Any thoughts? Thanks.

If the northern eyewall passes over Guadeloupe, category 2 and 3 winds would be likely across a good chunk of the island.

[flamingosun]

From the latest NHC Public Advisory:

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center,

That's some small comfort for now, at least . . .

and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

. . . but not the rate at which her overall wind field is expanding. You gotta wonder just how many of the Antilles she'll end up being able to touch by the time she makes her way across them. Right now is certainly the wrong time for ANY of them to get any more storm exposure of any kind at all!

[gatorcane]

Looks to be moving more west than WNW the past few hours:

[AutoPenalti]

Looks to be moving more west than WNW the past few hours:

Most likely the convection that is building in to the west.

[ftolmsteen]

Looks to be moving more west than WNW the past few hours:

Barbados radar picking up eyewall. Looks like it's moving just north of west.

http://barbadosweather.org/Composite/ki ... site=Sabre

[gailwarning]

Looks to be moving more west than WNW the past few hours:

Is it my imagination as a lay person, or is the most common phrase during the tracking of these storms "tracking more west than expected?"

[RL3AO]

Looks to be moving more west than WNW the past few hours:

[img]https://s26.postimg.org/lq8d2bzbd/rgb_lalo-animated.gif[/

Is it my imagination as a lay person, or is the most common phrase during the tracking of these storms "tracking more west than expected?"

Is it said a lot on here? Yes. Is it often untrue that it's moving more west than expected? Yes.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 15, 2017091800, , BEST, 0, 140N, 580W, 75, 979 HU

[Rincoin]

Hi cyclone. Longtime storm2ker here. Love in rincón on west coast. Watching with huge amount of interest. Have a weather station here (barrio puntas) on Wunderground. Will post what I can when I can here. If the current track verifies we are not at all happy. Stay safe where u are and be in touch.

Rincón.

[Gustywind]

00z Best Track:

AL, 15, 2017091800, , BEST, 0, 140N, 580W, 75, 979 HU

waouw reaching now already 75 KTS!

[CrazyC83]

TXNT29 KNES 180006
TCSNTL

A. 15L (MARIA)

B. 17/2345Z

C. 14.0N

D. 58.0W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...DT=5.0 BASED ON WH EMBEDDED CENTER. PT=4.5. MET=4.5. FT
IS BASED ON MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTLY OF POSITION. EYE APPARENT IN 17/2203
MICROWAVE.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

17/2203Z 14.0N 57.6W SSMIS

[Gustywind]

00z Best Track:

AL, 15, 2017091800, , BEST, 0, 140N, 580W, 75, 979 HU

Any link Luis ? thanks

[DESTRUCTION5]

Looks to be moving more west than WNW the past few hours:

[img]https://s26.postimg.org/lq8d2bzbd/rgb_lalo-animated.gif[/

Is it my imagination as a lay person, or is the most common phrase during the tracking of these storms "tracking more west than expected?"

Is it said a lot on here? Yes. Is it often untrue that it's moving more west than expected? Yes.

Cept when endgame was Miami to Naples.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 15, 2017091800, , BEST, 0, 140N, 580W, 75, 979 HU

Any link Luis ? thanks

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal152017.dat


ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Those cloud tops are looking v/cold.

[CrazyC83]

Next Recon arrives for 0600Z?

[caribsue]

Very quiet in central Barbados right now almost eerily so