ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

WTCA82 TJSJ 180029 CCA
HLSSJU
VIZ001-002-180815-

Hurricane Maria Local Statement Intermediate Advisory Number 6A...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR AL152017
829 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017

This product covers PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS

**MARIA CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE LESSER
ANTILLES**


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Hurricane Watch has been issued for St Croix and
St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Hurricane Watch is in effect for St Croix and St.Thomas...St.
John...and Adjacent Islands

* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 560 miles east-southeast of Saint Thomas VI or about 520
miles east-southeast of Saint Croix VI
- 14.0N 57.9W
- Storm Intensity 80 mph
- Movement West-northwest or 285 degrees at 15 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

At 8 PM AST Hurricane Maria was about 520 miles east southeast of
Saint Croix. Hurricane conditions are expected in the southeasternmost
portion of the local waters within 48 hours. Winds of 64 knots or more
with higher gusts may be expected as early Tuesday afternoon. Maria
is expected to cross near Saint Croix and across Puerto Rico during
the next 48 to 84 hours.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:

Prepare for life-threatening wind having possible devastating impacts.
Potential impacts in this area include:
- Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof
and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage
greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations
may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
- Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access
routes impassable.
- Widespread power and communications outages.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
devastating impacts across PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS.
Potential impacts include:
- Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations and
rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their banks
in many places with deep moving water. Small streams, creeks,
canals, arroyos, and ditches may become raging rivers. In
mountain areas, deadly runoff may rage down valleys while
increasing susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. Flood
control systems and barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover escape
routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of raging water
with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become very
dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures with some weakened
or washed out.

* SURGE:

Surge of 4 to 6 feet is expected-mainly on the southern coasts.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a dangerous tornado event having possible significant
impacts.
Potential impacts include:
- The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
- Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:

For those under evacuation orders, leave as soon as practical with a
destination in mind. Gas up your vehicle well ahead of time. Be sure
that you take all essential materials from your emergency supplies kit.
Let others know where you are going and when you intend to arrive.

If evacuating the area, stick to prescribed evacuation routes. Look
for additional traffic information on roadway smart signs and listen to
select radio channels for further travel instructions. Drivers should
not use cell phones while operating vehicles.

For those not under evacuation orders, understand that there are
inherent risks to evacuation (such as traffic congestion, accidents,
and driving in bad weather), so evacuate only if necessary. Help keep
roadways open for those that are under evacuation orders.

If you are exceptionally vulnerable to wind or water hazards from
tropical systems, consider voluntary evacuation, especially if being
officially recommended. Relocate to a predetermined shelter or safe
destination.

If evacuating away from the area or relocating to a nearby shelter,
leave early before weather conditions become hazardous.


* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and take necessary
actions to secure your home or business. Deliberate efforts should be
underway to protect life and property. Ensure that your Emergency
Supplies Kit is stocked and ready.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track as there are inherent forecast uncertainties
which must be taken into account.

If you live in a place that is particularly vulnerable to high wind,
such as a mobile home, an upper floor of a high rise building, or on
a boat, plan to move to safe shelter. Take enough supplies for you
and your family for several days.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low lying or poor
drainage area, in a valley or canyon, or near an already swollen
river, plan to move to safe shelter on higher ground

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any orders
that are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives
of others.

Visitors to the area should become familiar with nearby surroundings.
If you are a visitor, know the name of the county or parish in which
you are located and where it is relative to current watches and
warnings. If staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their
onsite disaster plan. Listen for evacuation orders, especially
pertaining to area visitors.

Closely monitor NOAA Weather Radio or other local news outlets for
official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the
forecast.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in San Juan PR around 1130 PM AST, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

[cycloneye]

Hi cyclone. Longtime storm2ker here. Love in rincón on west coast. Watching with huge amount of interest. Have a weather station here (barrio puntas) on Wunderground. Will post what I can when I can here. If the current track verifies we are not at all happy. Stay safe where u are and be in touch.

Rincón.

I am prepared for the worse but hoping for the best.Let's see how PR fares from this when it is all over as you know the power grid is not the best.

[RT23]

isn't there to be 6 hr fixes on Maria since she developed , it was in the recon plan for todays issued yesterday.

[banksmanforever]

Very quiet in central Barbados right now almost eerily so

I agree it is very quiet ...

[johngaltfla]

Things are already looking ugly for the islands, Puerto Rico is likely to get a direct hit as well from a potential Category 3 or 4 storm.

Thanks for thinking of us islanders.
After pages of speculations about a CONUS landfall it's good to see that somebody cares about what's about to happen here in the Caribbean.

Trust me, those of us in Florida who visit there a lot, care a lot. We pray for you guys every time one of these storms spin up. Irma was bad, but Maria will be insult to injury. I hope everyone out there in the islands escapes with minimal loss and injury after what we've seen thus far. It is horrific.

[abajan]

Things are already looking ugly for the islands, Puerto Rico is likely to get a direct hit as well from a potential Category 3 or 4 storm.

I really think the Like button on this forum should be changed to an Agree one. Because while I agree with your statement, I don't like the outlook for Puerto Rico!

[abajan]

Things are already looking ugly for the islands, Puerto Rico is likely to get a direct hit as well from a potential Category 3 or 4 storm.

Thanks for thinking of us islanders.
After pages of speculations about a CONUS landfall it's good to see that somebody cares about what's about to happen here in the Caribbean.

Where are you located, though? Puerto Rico?

[abajan]

Maria is likely bombing out tonight. At this rate we could see a major by tomorrow that's probably even CAT4+.

https://i.imgur.com/OkyyJdk.jpg

Looks like bad news for Dominica, because, due to the more westerly motion of late, it now appears that that's its first port of call, instead of Guadeloupe.

[Nimbus]

Looking at the water vapor loop this evening and the outflow from Jose is riding the jet stream almost all the way back across the north Atlantic. Jose is supposed to reinforce the weakness that keeps the ridges separated according to the forecast. Doesn't look right to me for some reason, could there be some kind of ridge bridging going on?

[Gustywind]

Maria is likely bombing out tonight. At this rate we could see a major by tomorrow that's probably even CAT4+.

https://i.imgur.com/OkyyJdk.jpg

Looks like bad news for Dominica, because, due to the more westerly motion of late, it now appears that that's its first port of call, instead of Guadeloupe.

Agree with you, Dominica and Guadeloupe are the most exposed islands given the latest infos. That's is very bad news for Dominca and for Guadeloupe too by extension. Seems that Maria continues to be fairly well organize tonight.

[gatorcane]

Looks to be moving more west than WNW the past few hours:

[img]https://s26.postimg.org/lq8d2bzbd/rgb_lalo-animated.gif[/

Is it my imagination as a lay person, or is the most common phrase during the tracking of these storms "tracking more west than expected?"

Is it said a lot on here? Yes. Is it often untrue that it's moving more west than expected? Yes.

But in this case from what I am seeing on the floater with more frames since I posted this earlier, looks more W than WNW still.

[TJRE]

goes east 0130utc
she gets more angry... hour by hour
https://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/

[Alyono]

Next Recon arrives for 0600Z?

12Z I beleive. 6 hourly fixes start tomorrow, with 3 hrly on tuesday

[Alyono]

Maria is likely bombing out tonight. At this rate we could see a major by tomorrow that's probably even CAT4+.

https://i.imgur.com/OkyyJdk.jpg

Looks like bad news for Dominica, because, due to the more westerly motion of late, it now appears that that's its first port of call, instead of Guadeloupe.

Agree with you, Dominica and Guadeloupe are the most exposed islands given the latest infos. That's is very bad news for Dominca and for Guadeloupe too by extension. Seems that Maria continues to be fairly well organize tonight.

Martinique is definitely in play

[TJRE]

hard to gauge anything... but due west from this loop

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... 5_15L.html

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt15L.html

[Alyono]

why are we using satellite when we have a good radar?

http://www.barbadosweather.org/Composit ... 1504650338

[BobHarlem]

why are we using satellite when we have a good radar?

http://www.barbadosweather.org/Composit ... 1504650338

Longer term of that same radar: http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?323

And from looking at that it's going to hit Martinique dead on unless it starts heading more north soon.

[gatorcane]

why are we using satellite when we have a good radar?

http://www.barbadosweather.org/Composit ... 1504650338

Thanks good link. Confirms my suspicion of west motion the last few hours looking at the satellite loop.

[banksmanforever]

Is it going w or wnw .... my bet is west

[abajan]

Looks like bad news for Dominica, because, due to the more westerly motion of late, it now appears that that's its first port of call, instead of Guadeloupe.

Agree with you, Dominica and Guadeloupe are the most exposed islands given the latest infos. That's is very bad news for Dominca and for Guadeloupe too by extension. Seems that Maria continues to be fairly well organize tonight.

Martinique is definitely in play

Yeah, I think you're right. Now that I've looked at the radar loop sped up, it definitely looks Martinique bound.
EDIT: Probably more likely, the Martinique Passage (the body of water between the two islands).