ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nimbus]

Dominica is going to get the full force of the storm but recon will give us a better idea of the wind fields. The folks on the islands know to evacuate away from expose shorelines and seek appropriate shelter If the core of Maria is still relatively small Guadaloupe might escape the major hurricane wind destruction. Pressures are likely to be dropping at over a millibar per hour so radar and recon will really be the only critical information interesting for our island friends.

[NDG]

IMO, Maria better start changing to a more northerly heading right away otherwise it is still heading straight for Martinique, the heading that I am calculating is near 285 deg, not 290 like the NHC estimates.

[NDG]

Recon finding Maria stronger this morning, and it looks to be further south than what the NHC estimated its center to be.

SW quadrant:
111300 1423N 05948W 6958 02993 9833 +111 +090 346068 070 070 002 00
111330 1423N 05946W 6971 02950 9762 +149 +074 346067 070 075 018 03
111400 1423N 05944W 6954 02936 9718 +152 +113 345057 067 077 013 03
111430 1424N 05942W 6968 02889 9686 +155 +114 346034 046 052 002 00
111500 1424N 05941W 6966 02881 9669 +158 +108 340011 024 034 001 00

[Gustywind]

I'm prepared in Guadeloupe.
Gustywind

[NDG]

Morning visible of Maria, deep convection near its eye this morning, ESE of Martinique.

[NDG]

Wow!!!!!!!!!!

Maria is a Major Hurricane this morning, IMO.

111630 1427N 05936W 6962 02863 9653 +152 +109 153014 015 028 001 03
111700 1428N 05934W 6970 02855 9660 +149 +107 152033 043 045 002 03
111730 1430N 05933W 6969 02870 9676 +146 +111 138058 068 096 006 00
111800 1431N 05932W 6949 02923 9730 +136 +133 134088 099 102 013 00
111830 1433N 05931W 6972 02939 9792 +122 //// 130097 107 099 013 05
111900 1435N 05930W 6994 02947 9865 +099 //// 124099 108 074 051 05
111930 1436N 05929W 6952 03020 9905 +092 +092 125090 092 072 030 03

[NDG]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Pressures look to be around 966mb, winds 115mph. Just wow.

[OntarioEggplant]

Looks like we have a cat 3. I wonder how much stronger it was when it wasn't being sheared a little...

[cjrciadt]

With such high pressure to those Cat 3 winds!

[NDG]

With such high pressure to those Cat 3 winds!

Is in the deep tropics, that is low enough for Cat 3.

[SouthDadeFish]

I would definitely upgrade to cat 3 based on those recon reports. Just horrible news for the Lesser Antilles. I must admit, I'm a bit surprised Maria has intensified this quickly considering the IR signature. I truly hope those in the path of the storm were prepared for possible major hurricane impacts...

[GCANE]

Rain rate in the NE eyewall at 50 mm/hr.
Very respectable.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Or perhaps not a major. VDM threw out the major hurricane SFMR values.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 11:30Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305
Storm Number & Year: 15 in 2017
Storm Name: Maria (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 18th day of the month at 11:16:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°26'N 59°37'W (14.4333N 59.6167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 91 statute miles (147 km) to the N (359°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,819m (9,249ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 70kts (~ 80.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the WSW (252°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 346° at 70kts (From the NNW at ~ 80.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the WSW (252°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 968mb (28.59 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest, SW
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 108kts (~ 124.3mph) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NE (38°) from the flight level center at 11:19:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 175° at 17kts (From the S at 20mph)

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

Eye diameter 12 nm, open to SW.
Shrinking.

[djones65]

I am not completely convinced this is a major yet. In my opinion, I would go 95 knots or 110 mph. The three SFMR values of 96 and 102 knot winds were not flagged while the 99 kt report was. All three were in heavy precipitation which can inflate SFMR numbers. The normal 10% reduction of flight level winds is exactly 97 kt or 111 mph and the satellite imagery is not overly impressive. I personally would only go 110 mph a strong cat 2 until subsequent reports verify the surface winds.

With that being said, however, I have no doubt Maria will soon become a major.

[GCANE]

Not bad except for the SW hole.

[Aric Dunn]

Recent burst of convection clearly showing the eye on IR.

[NDG]

So since the last VDM yesterday afternoon, Maria has averaged at a track heading of 287 deg, its pressure dropped 15 mb since then.