ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Maria has intensified by 50 kt in the last 24 hours... Right before an expected landfall in the Antilles. Worst case scenario unfolding.

yeah no good.

the HWRF showed this a few runs back.. then backed off until after the leewards..

[RL3AO]

Maria has intensified by 50 kt in the last 24 hours... Right before an expected landfall in the Antilles. Worst case scenario unfolding.

A category 5 in the eastern Caribbean is very possible. Looking like a devastating event for Dominica and one of the all-time historic hurricanes for Puerto Rico.

[tailgater]

What a difference 10 hrs. makes
10 hours ago

best free image hosting site
a short time ago.

[RL3AO]

A 7 mb pressure drop in under two hours. Very impressive.

[SouthDadeFish]

Maria has intensified by 50 kt in the last 24 hours... Right before an expected landfall in the Antilles. Worst case scenario unfolding.

A category 5 in the eastern Caribbean is very possible. Looking like a devastating event for Dominica and one of the all-time historic hurricanes for Puerto Rico.

I think a category 5 is almost a 50-50 shot at this point. NHC is forecasting 130 kt and saying it could be conservative. I sadly see little in the way of stopping further intensification other than eyewall replacement cycles. Shear is negligible and outflow is excellent.

[wxman57]

Note that Maria is a tiny hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend out only about 15 miles from the center. The eye is only 10 miles across, maybe a little less. Such small hurricanes can have quite strong winds with a relatively higher pressure. Pressure gradient is the key to its max winds - the change of pressure with distance. A tornado with a pressure of 960 mb might have winds well above 200 mph because of the tight pressure gradient.

Maria's small size will limit the area that receives hurricane-force winds as it crosses into the Caribbean, and possibly when it crosses Puerto Rico Wednesday evening.

[Aric Dunn]

Note that Maria is a tiny hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend out only about 15 miles from the center. The eye is only 10 miles across, maybe a little less. Such small hurricanes can have quite strong winds with a relatively higher pressure. Pressure gradient is the key to its max winds - the change of pressure with distance. A tornado with a pressure of 960 mb might have winds well above 200 mph because of the tight pressure gradient.

Maria's small size will limit the area that receives hurricane-force winds as it crosses into the Caribbean, and possibly when it crosses Puerto Rico Wednesday evening.

yep, though I would imagine at least one ERC would occur expanding the wind field..

[northjaxpro]

This is so gut wrenching watching this unfold! Unfortunately I agree with you SouthDade.

[SouthDadeFish]

In the past 48 hours we have gone from the first advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone 15 to now major Hurricane Maria, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. The power of rapid tropical cyclogenesis.

48 hours ago:



Now:

[Evenstar]

It's really ramping up on radar now. Eyewall is very well defined. I'm growing increasingly concerned for what recon is about to find in this center pass.

In the immortal words of Jeff Goldblum as Dr. Ian Malcolm, "I'm fairly alarmed here."

[NDG]

Note that Maria is a tiny hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend out only about 15 miles from the center. The eye is only 10 miles across, maybe a little less. Such small hurricanes can have quite strong winds with a relatively higher pressure. Pressure gradient is the key to its max winds - the change of pressure with distance. A tornado with a pressure of 960 mb might have winds well above 200 mph because of the tight pressure gradient.

Maria's small size will limit the area that receives hurricane-force winds as it crosses into the Caribbean, and possibly when it crosses Puerto Rico Wednesday evening.

If there is any good news for the devastated Virgin Islands is that if Maria tracks a little further south like the Euro shows maybe the major hurricane force winds will stay to the south of the V Islands, except for St Croix, since this is such a tiny hurricane compared to Irma.

[crm6360]

Given its compact nature it's possible it might thread the needle between those 2 islands and only deliver a glancing blow. Of course, any slight expansion in the wind field and this is moot.

[ronjon]

Not sure there is any "good" news regarding VI and PR impacts - NHC now predicting a 150 mph strong CAT 4 raking those islands with their track cutting a SE-NW path across the island of PR.

[msbee]

A special shout out to my friends, Cycloneye and Gustywind.
Be ready for this one. Hoping you do well and stay dry and safe.
and best wishes to all others in our neighboring islands who may be affected by Maria.
We are hoping in St Maarten that we only get tropical storm force winds. Still, we prepare for everything.
Good luck to all! Hoping fair weather is just around the corner!
Barbara

[Gustywind]

So Aric , what Guadeloupe should expect for MARIA arrival? Thanks.

[GCANE]

[T-man]

Down here in bayou country we are praying for a track through the Martinique passage, keeping the most destructive part of Maria offshore, and we are hoping her wind field does not expand much further before that can occur. As always, our thoughts are with the folks inhabiting those islands, I have visited there, such a beautiful place and friendly people...

[wxman57]

So Aric , what Guadeloupe should expect for MARIA arrival? Thanks.

Could be only strong tropical storm-force winds, Gusty. Maybe 50-60 mph sustained with gusts 75-80 mph. Of course, that's as long as Maria doesn't wobble north. There will be a very tight wind gradient just south of Guadeloupe. Strongest wind there will be late this evening. I have the track going right over Dominica, by the way.

[supercane4867]

Maria has very impressive outflow in all quadrants which indicates wind shear has dropped to nonexistent. With high OHC in the Caribbean, the only thing could stop Maria from reaching CAT5 before PR is a prolonged EWRC, which is possible given the small eye she has right now.

[GCANE]

WOOW!!
75 mm/hr rain rate.
Cat 4 kind of levels.