ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1201 Postby hurricaneCW » Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:11 pm

Radar shows intensification of western eyewall right over their most populated city. As bad as it can get for the island.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1202 Postby dukeblue219 » Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:12 pm

FYI - 9PM position update included a change to 924mb from 925mb at the 8pm special advisory. Hadn't seen anyone post that yet.
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Re: ATL: MARIA: Obs,Web Cams,Local Weather Statements: Leewards,U.S/BVI Virgin Islands.Puerto Rico,DR,Bahamas

#1203 Postby artist » Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:12 pm

Prayers to all, and please stay safe.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1204 Postby abajan » Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:13 pm

Well, I guess this puts to rest all this "powerful sounding name" stuff when it comes to predicting which storms will be the dangerous ones, based just on their names, because Maria is probably one of the gentlest sounding names one could think of. Yet it's now a monster cane!
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1205 Postby Ken711 » Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:14 pm

abajan wrote:Well, I guess this puts to rest all this "powerful sounding name" stuff when it comes to predicting which storms will be the dangerous ones, based just on their names, because Maria is probably one of the gentlest sounding names one could think of. Yet it's now a monster cane!


And destined to be retired.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1206 Postby Alyono » Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:14 pm

Meteorcane wrote:How are the building codes there? Are they built like fortresses e.g. the Cayman islands?


mostly built after 1979. But Dominica does not have the GDP as does Antigua and Barbuda. But even so, Cayman was destroyed by Ivan in 2004. There is only so much you can protect for, unless you go full concrete dome for all structures
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1207 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:15 pm

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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1208 Postby drezee » Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:15 pm

135127 129

129kt flight level so far
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1209 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:15 pm

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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1210 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:17 pm

NW quad stronger than NE quad by quite a bit...
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Global model run times (CST):
GFS - 0z: 10:30pm, 6z: 4:30am, 12z: 10:30am, 18z: 4:30pm Euro - 0z: 12:30am 12z: 12:30pm

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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1211 Postby Hurrilurker » Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:18 pm


That has to be offline, doesn't it? There is no way they are only seeing wind gusts of ~30 mph right now.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1212 Postby dukeblue219 » Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:19 pm

FLpanhandle91 wrote:NW quad stronger than NE quad by quite a bit...


Careful... they haven't made it all the way through just yet. Only down to 974mb. If they can penetrate all the way through we'll see higher numbers in the next batch of data.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1213 Postby Alyono » Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:20 pm

eyewall isn't yet to Portsmouth
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1214 Postby dukeblue219 » Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:21 pm

Hurrilurker wrote:That has to be offline, doesn't it? There is no way they are only seeing wind gusts of ~30 mph right now.

Maybe some mountain shielding? A poorly located personal weather station? Who knows. It *looks* to be updating live...
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1215 Postby drezee » Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:22 pm

Recon Band is 65 mm/hr
(~ 2.56 in/hr)

Wow
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1216 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:24 pm

Alyono wrote:
Meteorcane wrote:How are the building codes there? Are they built like fortresses e.g. the Cayman islands?


mostly built after 1979. But Dominica does not have the GDP as does Antigua and Barbuda. But even so, Cayman was destroyed by Ivan in 2004. There is only so much you can protect for, unless you go full concrete dome for all structures


Looking at the damage pictures from US & British Virgin Islands, I was in shock as to how many homes had wooden roofs and not solid re-enforced concrete roofs, just about all the homes with wooden roofs lost their roofs including the plywood & trusses.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1217 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:25 pm

Middle of eye now on shore.
Wall is being taken down a notch or two by the mountains.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1218 Postby drezee » Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:26 pm

Center is onshore...SFMR could not read over land. Pressure rising
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1219 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:26 pm

I guess recon could not get into the middle of the eye because is probably inland already.

011300 1523N 06109W 6975 02795 9664 +119 +119 142132 133 115 077 00
011330 1523N 06110W 6975 02719 9576 +126 +126 144118 134 119 072 03
011400 1522N 06111W 6956 02700 9525 +129 //// 150087 102 111 064 05
011430 1521N 06112W 6970 02648 9465 +136 //// 156063 071 082 010 01
011500 1520N 06113W 6993 02587 9408 +146 +144 148047 058 059 006 03
011530 1519N 06114W 6986 02577 9365 +170 +139 175030 041 /// /// 03
011600 1517N 06114W 6994 02576 //// +138 //// 214025 034 069 001 05
011630 1515N 06114W 6992 02603 9449 +136 //// 237057 064 076 006 05
011700 1514N 06114W 6964 02685 9505 +138 +138 236085 094 117 043 03
011730 1513N 06114W 6959 02736 9571 +125 //// 240102 103 125 058 01
011800 1512N 06114W 6952 02784 9612 +130 +130 244099 103 125 055 03
011830 1511N 06115W 6983 02779 9646 +123 //// 250097 099 118 051 01
011900 1511N 06116W 6965 02789 9636 +120 //// 258098 102 124 058 05
011930 1511N 06117W 6968 02796 9645 +127 //// 266094 098 124 057 01
012000 1511N 06118W 6968 02814 9670 +121 //// 270094 096 119 048 05
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1220 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:26 pm

011230 1524N 06108W 6963 02865 9740 +109 +109 135127 129 098 065 00
011300 1523N 06109W 6975 02795 9664 +119 +119 142132 133 115 077 00
011330 1523N 06110W 6975 02719 9576 +126 +126 144118 134 119 072 03
011400 1522N 06111W 6956 02700 9525 +129 //// 150087 102 111 064 05
011430 1521N 06112W 6970 02648 9465 +136 //// 156063 071 082 010 01
011500 1520N 06113W 6993 02587 9408 +146 +144 148047 058 059 006 03
011530 1519N 06114W 6986 02577 9365 +170 +139 175030 041 /// /// 03
011600 1517N 06114W 6994 02576 //// +138 //// 214025 034 069 001 05
011630 1515N 06114W 6992 02603 9449 +136 //// 237057 064 076 006 05
011700 1514N 06114W 6964 02685 9505 +138 +138 236085 094 117 043 03
011730 1513N 06114W 6959 02736 9571 +125 //// 240102 103 125 058 01
011800 1512N 06114W 6952 02784 9612 +130 +130 244099 103 125 055 03
011830 1511N 06115W 6983 02779 9646 +123 //// 250097 099 118 051 01
011900 1511N 06116W 6965 02789 9636 +120 //// 258098 102 124 058 05
011930 1511N 06117W 6968 02796 9645 +127 //// 266094 098 124 057 01
012000 1511N 06118W 6968 02814 9670 +121 //// 270094 096 119 048 05
012030 1510N 06119W 6964 02846 9707 +113 //// 277093 096 111 044 01

Impressive SW eye-wall
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Global model run times (CST):
GFS - 0z: 10:30pm, 6z: 4:30am, 12z: 10:30am, 18z: 4:30pm Euro - 0z: 12:30am 12z: 12:30pm


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