ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Looks like south of interpolated forecast points.
This fix may tell if a wobble or a real turn.

[msbee]

good morning from St Maarten. wind is picking up a lot. its getting stronger as I type. Not much rain though. We are under a strict curfew as we wait out Maria.
Shelters are open.
We will be OK.
There is a lot of zinc lying around though, so with tropical storm force winds there could be zinc flying through the ar.
Reports we are hearing out of Dominica this morning are devastating.
I have many friends on SXM who have family in Dominica. They are desperately trying to get word of their families.
Gustywind, I hope you are OK. Report in when you can.
Cycloneye and those of you in VI and PR, please be safe.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like no secondary wind max - nix the EWRC.

Often times the ring shows up on radar before the winds pick up in the ring and show up in recon data

[Aric Dunn]

Recon data is late again..

[dukeblue219]

On the way back out the NE eyewall (they turned):

URNT15 KNHC 191317
AF305 0415A MARIA HDOB 42 20170919
130830 1612N 06251W 6974 02543 9298 +190 +113 113040 049 /// /// 03
130900 1614N 06250W 6974 02576 9354 +161 +131 121078 096 /// /// 03
130930 1616N 06250W 6938 02686 //// +121 //// 119125 141 /// /// 05
131000 1616N 06249W 6968 02721 //// +110 //// 119143 144 /// /// 05
131030 1616N 06248W 6976 02728 //// +107 //// 122142 144 /// /// 05
131100 1617N 06247W 6980 02750 //// +099 //// 125141 143 /// /// 05
131130 1618N 06246W 6975 02801 //// +091 //// 133132 140 /// /// 05
131200 1618N 06245W 6961 02866 //// +083 //// 139125 129 /// /// 05
131230 1620N 06244W 6971 02898 //// +083 //// 138118 125 /// /// 05
131300 1621N 06243W 6967 02928 //// +086 //// 141113 116 /// /// 05
131330 1622N 06242W 6970 02953 //// +085 //// 142106 110 /// /// 05
131400 1623N 06241W 6966 02983 //// +093 //// 143101 106 /// /// 05
131430 1624N 06239W 6965 02999 //// +100 //// 141096 099 /// /// 05
131500 1625N 06238W 6963 03020 9874 +108 +095 142087 094 /// /// 03
131530 1627N 06237W 6966 03032 //// +092 //// 137091 094 /// /// 05
131600 1627N 06237W 6966 03032 //// +089 //// 136088 094 /// /// 05
131630 1629N 06234W 6970 03045 //// +088 //// 137086 089 /// /// 05
131700 1631N 06233W 6961 03062 //// +092 //// 138083 087 /// /// 05
131730 1632N 06232W 6972 03052 //// +089 //// 138090 092 /// /// 05
131800 1633N 06231W 6965 03068 //// +090 //// 141082 090 /// /// 05

[tropicwatch]

Winds are increasing, looks like 165mph.

[dukeblue219]

Winds are increasing, looks like 165mph.

Are they? The flight level winds have been pretty steady around 140-145kt this whole flight. No SFMR data to see what's happening on the surface. Maybe the dropsonde will get something down low but I think 140kt looks right here.

[tropicwatch]

Winds are increasing, looks like 165mph.

Are they? The flight level winds have been pretty steady around 140-145kt this whole flight. No SFMR data to see what's happening on the surface. Maybe the dropsonde will get something down low but I think 140kt looks right here.

Sorry that was flight level.

[GCANE]

Could be a real turn to the left

[SouthDadeFish]

There are some hints of a secondary wind maximum in the NE quadrant looking at flight-level winds. Nonetheless, it looks like the central pressure is gradually falling by about a mb between passes. Now down to 929-930 mb.

[GCANE]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 13:07:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°09'N 62°52'W (16.15N 62.8667W)

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 225° at 123kts (From the SW at ~ 141.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the SE (141°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 932mb (27.53 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,039m (9,970ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)

L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles)

Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 144kts (~ 165.7mph) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the NNE (29°) from the flight level center at 13:10:00Z

[Aric Dunn]

Could be a real turn to the left

All thiss more wnw motion is quickly shrinking any chance of PR escaping the right front.

[GCANE]

[Aric Dunn]

you can see the outer eyewall on the radar. its not solid so it still has a way to go but looks underway.

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... f_com.html

[Aric Dunn]

Wind field has expanded quite a bit from yesterday..

[gtalum]

It'd be nice if there were a right shift to spare PR the worst.

[Ken711]

The track in PR may go right over the giant radio telescope at Arecibo in mountainous terrain. My uncle worked there with Cornell University in building that facility.

[Stormtrack03]

It'd be nice if there were a right shift to spare PR the worst.

It appears that Maria is right on NHC track so far today.

[galaxy401]

Have there been any reports from Dominica yet? I checked online but it seems communications are still down over there.

[Raebie]

Have there been any reports from Dominica yet? I checked online but it seems communications are still down over there.

I haven't seen any. Not a good sign.