ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[supercane4867]

This doubling of eye diameter just weird. It went from 5nm to 10nm in one pass.

[Sanibel]

So much for the "east Caribbean graveyard"...Historic storm will hit Puerto Rico at full category 5 intensity for Dominica II...

[Alyono]

So much for the "east Caribbean graveyard"...Historic storm will hit Puerto Rico at full category 5 intensity for Dominica II...

east Caribbean is either very favorable or very unfavorable. It is clearly very favorable this time. It is one place where rapid intensification occurs not that infrequently. It is not a graveyard. An old John Hope myth that should be forgotten

[Hurrilurker]

Eyewall in San Juan a metro over 1.5 million would be a nightmare.

It's going to be close enough that it'll be a disaster anyway. At this point it would take something really freakish to happen to deflect the core significantly away from San Juan. As of now it looks like the eye may miss a bit to the west but it's the strong side so...

[Kazmit]

[galaxy401]

So much for the "east Caribbean graveyard"...Historic storm will hit Puerto Rico at full category 5 intensity for Dominica II...

I think the East Caribbean graveyard applies only for developing storms (like Harvey during his first stint). Developed storms have no problem in this region (like Matthew last year).

[Ryxn]

Maria growing in size considerably the past couple hours...

[Exalt]

This doubling of eye diameter just weird. It went from 5nm to 10nm in one pass.

Irma did the same thing. Inexplicable wind radii expansion and eyewall growth without the usual pressure increases, wind speed declines, and eye fumbles normally seen in a EWRC.

[msbee]

Gustywind , insane is right.
Stay safe.
Praying for those in our neighboring islands.

[Nimbus]

Eyewall in San Juan a metro over 1.5 million would be a nightmare.

It's going to be close enough that it'll be a disaster anyway. At this point it would take something really freakish to happen to deflect the core significantly away from San Juan. As of now it looks like the eye may miss a bit to the west but it's the strong side so...

Slowing down last few frames with a N wobble, it would take a miracle for Maria to pull a Charley and leave all of Puerto Rico on the weak side of the storm.

[NDG]

So much for the "east Caribbean graveyard"...Historic storm will hit Puerto Rico at full category 5 intensity for Dominica II...

east Caribbean is either very favorable or very unfavorable. It is clearly very favorable this time. It is one place where rapid intensification occurs not that infrequently. It is not a graveyard. An old John Hope myth that should be forgotten

I agree, it is only a bad area for development and or intensification during certain times of the year and certain years, Matthew last year also proved the "graveyard" wrong.

[SouthDadeFish]

FYI... ERCs typically take between 12-24 hours to complete. This one is just starting. It may not complete before a potential Puerto Rico landfall, but it will be close. It's concerning to see the pressure continue to fall like this with a secondary eyewall forming. Nothing is slowing it down for now.

do you have any ideas as to why ewrcs have not been causing weakening this year? Harvey intensified through its replacement, as did Irma through its initial one.. I've never seen this before

Great question. I'm beginning to wonder if these really intense TCs have a unique version of ERCs that allows them to continue to intensify. Like something with the dynamics are different than the "typical" ERC. I also do not recall TCs intensifying like this while the secondary eyewall forms... This would be a fantastic research opportunity with the radar datasets from Irma and now Maria.

[cvalkan4]

So much for the "east Caribbean graveyard"...Historic storm will hit Puerto Rico at full category 5 intensity for Dominica II...

east Caribbean is either very favorable or very unfavorable. It is clearly very favorable this time. It is one place where rapid intensification occurs not that infrequently. It is not a graveyard. An old John Hope myth that should be forgotten

I believe John Hope said that if a system did not have an established circulation when it entered the east Caribbean, it was unlikely to develop until it reached the central or western Caribbean. Unfortunately, his "rule" has been a bit mischaracterized over the years.

[Aric Dunn]

THis ERC is very odd.

[curtadams]

Great question. I'm beginning to wonder if these really intense TCs have a unique version of ERCs that allows them to continue to intensify. Like something with the dynamics are different than the "typical" ERC. I also do not recall TCs intensifying like this while the secondary eyewall forms... This would be a fantastic research opportunity with the radar datasets from Irma and now Maria.

I noticed that these storms have often not had the more traditional circular eyewall surrounded by a moat. Their structure has been more of a continuous spiral. It might not explain everything, because sometimes these storm have had the more traditional structure, but I thought it was odd.

[loro-rojo]

PR radio is telling people to get ready to hide in closets and hallways to ride out the storm.

[SouthDadeFish]

Great question. I'm beginning to wonder if these really intense TCs have a unique version of ERCs that allows them to continue to intensify. Like something with the dynamics are different than the "typical" ERC. I also do not recall TCs intensifying like this while the secondary eyewall forms... This would be a fantastic research opportunity with the radar datasets from Irma and now Maria.

I noticed that these storms have often not had the more traditional circular eyewall surrounded by a moat. Their structure has been more of a continuous spiral. It might not explain everything, because sometimes these storm have had the more traditional structure, but I thought it was odd.

I agree with this observation. Even if you look at microwave right now, it looks like this is another case of a spiral band trying to become a secondary eyewall. I wonder if environmental moisture and shear plays a role in this.

[Aric Dunn]

Great question. I'm beginning to wonder if these really intense TCs have a unique version of ERCs that allows them to continue to intensify. Like something with the dynamics are different than the "typical" ERC. I also do not recall TCs intensifying like this while the secondary eyewall forms... This would be a fantastic research opportunity with the radar datasets from Irma and now Maria.

I noticed that these storms have often not had the more traditional circular eyewall surrounded by a moat. Their structure has been more of a continuous spiral. It might not explain everything, because sometimes these storm have had the more traditional structure, but I thought it was odd.

I mean what ERC ? It's like it got started begin to contract then some sort of convective ring ( i posted it earlier) begin expanding out from the center and now we are back to a full curved band and no outer eyewall.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Watching St. Croix webcam right now. Things are starting to look harry there -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Q2CzQclKQc

[EquusStorm]

The 913 is official now in the position update. We have a weird situation where Maria is the most intense storm of the year but 20mph away from the strongest of the year by wind speed.