ATL: MARIA - Models

[Steve]

0Z running, heading toward the coast in this frame.

Inner core from a 3/4 at that point along the OBX. Wild year in progress per GFS

That would probably be a strong 1 or a weak cat 2, but a very large one

For sure adjusted. I should have said that. I've only been out that way once, but I love all the NC islands. Hopefully it's more bark than bite.

[Alyono]

ec back west. Consensus may be shifting to between 74 and 74.5

[SunnyThoughts]

You guys in the mid Atlantic, get prepared...if it passes you by that's great, but be prepared just in case.

[GCANE]

00Z GFS
Stalls out here Wednesday afternoon & evening

[Vdogg]

Decent shift east on 06z GFS. It also shifted east on yesterday's 6z only to come back west so I wouldn't hang my hat on it just yet.

[Vdogg]

One thing to note is GFS is way faster than Euro. Gfs has impacts Wednesday while Euro not until Friday. Both solutions are at the 4-6 day range so additional changes in track are still likely.

[Vdogg]

FWIW, 6z Navgem came significantly west. I know, it's Navgem. Useless for track but perhaps useful for trend.

[seahawkjd]

FWIW, 6z Navgem came significantly west. I know, it's Navgem. Useless for track but perhaps useful for trend.

Link or picture? If nothing else the Navgem model always looks cool.

[Vdogg]

FWIW, 6z Navgem came significantly west. I know, it's Navgem. Useless for track but perhaps useful for trend.

Link or picture? If nothing else the Navgem model always looks cool.

I've been asking for days how to post a gif on this site but no one answered.
Here's a link.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

[Vdogg]

6z HMON with a wild, laughable, swing east. Doesn't even make it past 73w, even though the storm is almost at 73w right now and traveling NNW. That's not going to verify.

[emeraldislenc]

Do y'all think the threat to NC has gone up or down based on the models?

[seahawkjd]

Most of the models including the Euro and GFS so it getting too close for comfort where a wobble could mean a lot.

[Vdogg]

Do y'all think the threat to NC has gone up or down based on the models?

It's stayed the same. TS conditions are pretty much a guarantee at this point. The real question is whether hurricane conditions will come into play, which of course depends largely on track. There's been no real trend today, some runs are east and some came back west.

[emeraldislenc]

Thanks

[TheStormExpert]

A closer look at the 00z EPS (Euro) Ensembles.

[emeraldislenc]

What does that imply?

[Stellar]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2017_15L/web/displayGifsBy12hr_09.html

Eye wall replacement cycle beginning?

[stormreader]

A closer look at the 00z EPS (Euro) Ensembles.

As with the GFS ensembles posted yesterday morning, I think the key is the tracks taken by those western members. Still a pretty wide spread overall, but the western members actually lurch west and onto the coast. This west move in the Carolina coastal waters has been hinted at for some time now, and I think is going to become the final solution. Going to stick with a NC landfall at about Atlantic NC just at the south end of Pamlico Sound.

[MrJames]

The 00z UKMet ensembles have shifted east.

[Vdogg]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2017_15L/web/displayGifsBy12hr_09.html

Eye wall replacement cycle beginning?

Maybe that's why it's so weak. I've never seen a 947 mb storm with winds so low. Seems like recon is finding a low end Cat 2. With no land interaction for a few days and warmer water, it should have no problem completing.