2017 ACE: NATL - 226.0 | EPAC - 98.2 | WPAC - 154.5 | NIO - 16.1

[WeatherGuesser]

Has Maria hit 40?

[WeatherEmperor]

Has Maria hit 40?

According to Ryan Maue it has already hit 40.

Source: http://wx.graphics/tropical/


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[Alyono]

Almost certainly will finish the month over 200

With the niña, there is a good chance this will be the most active year in history from an ACE perspective

[WeatherEmperor]

Almost certainly will finish the month over 200

With the niña, there is a good chance this will be the most active year in history from an ACE perspective

What percent chance do you give for the Caribbean to produce a major hurricane in October??


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[Steve]

You probably will see a couple systems down there. I don't know about 250 though. Otoh I didn't see 150 coming either. But still that just seems like once in a century or less type of a situation to me.

[TheStormExpert]

This season went from a quantity to quality season with multiple record strength long-track storms overnight. This has to be record high ACE for such small amount of Named Storms and Hurricanes I would think?

[EquusStorm]

And this from the same season that had the lowest ACE total on record for the first five storms. Literally every named storm after the first five has been a hurricane though (and after Franklin, all have been at least high-end category two)

[Ryxn]

If the Atlantic Basin can hit 211.2 units (192 currently and it took around 8 the past two days, so lets say it gets 10 more before Oct 1), all it would take is ONE Wilma-like storm (38.9 units) in October and 9.2 more units to break the 2005 satellite-era record of 250 units (19.3 more units to break the 1933 basin record of 259 units). While not exactly likely, a Wilma-like storm is possible considering the vast amount of untapped energy and OHC in the western Caribbean and the transition into La Nina along with the lower than normal wind shear that is forecast.

And again, October could be quite ACTIVE as well in general so we may not need 39 units from one storm to beat the record. We could have FIVE storms in October (like in 2012) with two strong storms having a considerable ACE of 17 (one in open Atlantic, one in Caribbean), two more having values of 5 and one having 4.1.

Add two more 5-ACE storms (providing a SEVEN total for October like 2005) or 2 units to each of the five storms and the season passes 260 ACE.

And then there's November which hopefully won't deliver a Lenny with a 19.9 ACE (inflating the season total to a possible 280) and an additional two storms contributing 3 units (286 ACE total), but then again it is POSSIBLE.

This puts a crazy value of 300 ACE on the hypothetical table given October could produce 11 more units if one or two storms were stronger (e.g. 28 ACE Caribbean storm in October instead of 17) and November could produce 3 more units granted a stronger "Lenny" storm (23 units) or other November storm (e.g. 6 units instead of 3)

Hypothetical Atlantic Hurricane Season Oct-Dec, 2017

ACE as of September 30, 2017: 202

October (6 storms, 69.1 ACE, 271.1 ACE season total)

1. Nate (14) - 9 units (Gulf of Mexico C3/4, 81% the ACE of 2017's Harvey) (In real life, it WAS in the GOM but as a Cat 1)
2. Ophelia (15) - 4 units (TS open Atlantic, 93% the ACE of 2005's TS Harvey) (In real-life, probably will be in the open Atlantic)
3. Philippe (16) - 17 units (Gonzalo-track, same time of month, Cat 3, ~68% the ACE of 2014's Gonzalo)
4. Rina (17) - 5 units (TS/C1 open Atlantic, 84% the ACE of 2005's C1 Philippe)
5. Sean (18) - 29 units (October monster, Cat 5, 74% the ACE of Wilma)
6. Tammy (19) - 5.1 units (Short-lived C1/2 storm, 84% the ACE of 2017's Katia)

*Greater individual storm intensity could make up for a lower storm count

November (3 storms, 29 ACE, 300.1 ACE season total)

1. Vince (20) - 8 units (Open-sea long-tracker, C1, 60% the ACE of 2005's Epsilon)
2. Whitney (21) - 18 units (November monster, Cat 4, 90% the ACE of 1999's Lenny)
3. Alpha (22) - 3 units (Considerable TS open Atlantic, 50% of ACE of 2005's Delta, this storm will last half as long as Delta)

*Greater individual storm intensity could make up for a lower storm count

December (0-5 ACE)

0-2 (Beta [23], Gamma [24]) storms that could make up for a lower ACE for October and November (22-24 Season Total Named Storms, 15-16 Hurricanes, 9 Majors)

300 ACE...wouldn't that be something Definitely within the realm of possibility.

But my more realistic approach would expect a total around 230-260 ACE

Something to think about: If Whitney was the 3-ACE tropical storm and Alpha was instead the latter 18-ACE hurricane, could it be possible for Cat 4 Alpha to be retired if it causes enough havoc in what's likely to be the Caribbean? If it were to be retired, it would be the first occurrence for a Greek-named storm. However whether Greek-lettered names can get retired or not is still up for debate. If they could get retired, what names would replace them? Read this article for more: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10. ... S-87-6-760)

Sources
1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_Atla ... _.28ACE.29 (2005 ACE indexes)
2. https://books.google.ca/books?id=2Nwlpo ... (Hurricane Lenny ACE index)
3. http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Rea ... thatlantic (2017 ACE indexes)
4. http://media.bmsgroup.com/?p=4833 (2014's Gonzalo's and Edouard's combined ACE which is 62.5% of 65.1 [40.7] Both storms around same duration, but Gonzalo was 21% stronger and a major hurricane for much longer meaning Gonzalo had ~25 ACE)

[Alyono]

Almost certainly will finish the month over 200

With the niña, there is a good chance this will be the most active year in history from an ACE perspective

What percent chance do you give for the Caribbean to produce a major hurricane in October??


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80%

[Hammy]

This season went from a quantity to quality season with multiple record strength long-track storms overnight. This has to be record high ACE for such small amount of Named Storms and Hurricanes I would think?

2017 broke the record (even global record I think) for most ACE in a single month, so quite likely the ACE per storm within a single month was also likely broken.

[CrazyC83]

What I think would be crazy is if the EPAC can beat the WPAC as well. If that basin can see some long-lived or monster storms in October or November...

[NotSparta]

ACE update:

ATL: 196.9

EPAC: 97.4

WPAC: 117.2

NIO: 3.9

[Ryxn]

200 ACE this evening . Thanks to Lee and Maria strengthening, it will race past my 202 end-of-month estimate.

[NotSparta]

ACE update:

ATL: 199.3 (about to pass 200)

EPAC: 97.4

WPAC: 117.2

NIO: 3.9

[Ryxn]

Should be up at 220 ACE by Oct 1 at this pace (significantly above my initial 202 projection where I thought Maria and Lee would be decaying away much quicker). This is due to Lee still going strong and Maria hanging around for a couple more days as a hurricane
UNPRECEDENTED Which means beating 250 ACE by Nov 30, just got LIKELY

New Range: 240-280 ACE

With a very active October and November forecast, a 300 ACE is more likely to happen that it is to not.

[NotSparta]

Should be up at 220 ACE by Oct 1 at this pace (significantly above my initial 202 projection where I thought Maria and Lee would be decaying away much quicker). This is due to Lee still going strong and Maria hanging around for a couple more days as a hurricane
UNPRECEDENTED Which means beating 250 ACE by Nov 30, just got LIKELY

New Range: 240-280 ACE

With a very active October and November forecast, a 300 ACE is more likely to happen that it is to not.

The 2005 record is an active late season away, it's definitely possible

[Alyono]

2005 had 11/5/2 AFTER this date. That's how active 2005 was. Basically, a below average season's worth just from Sept 30-Jan 6

Now, I do not believe we will be THAT active. But we do not need to be for this to be a record active season. 6/4/2 may do the trick

[Ryxn]

Has it passes 200 units yet?

[1900hurricane]

I'm at 197.175 as of 00Z.

[RL3AO]

Here's what I have through 6z.

Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy
Name System ACE Max Intensity
------------------ ------------ ---------------
Arlene (01L) [TCR] 0.81 45
Bret (02L) 0.6875 40
Cindy (03L) 1.55 50
Four (04L) 0 25
Don (05L) 0.6875 40
Emily (06L) 0.405 45
Franklin (07L) 3.685 75
Gert (08L) 7.2675 90
Harvey (09L) 11.1225 115
Irma (11L) 67.505 160
Jose (12L) 41.795 135
Katia (13L) 6.055 90
Lee (14L) 14.15 100
Maria (15L) 42.5575 150

Season Total 198.278