Dangerous 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted - GWO
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2312
- Joined: Thu Aug 22, 2013 12:06 pm
- Location: Lumberton, Texas
Re: Dangerous 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted - GWO
Where to begin
1. El Niño is likely, not neutral. May very well be east based as well
2. Aren't MDR water temps likely to be below normal?
3. The fact we may be in a quiet phase. Only becamse active last year due to the PDO crash in late September, which allowed for about 85 ACE after September 25 (Matthew, Nicole, and Otto were a near average season by themselves)
1. El Niño is likely, not neutral. May very well be east based as well
2. Aren't MDR water temps likely to be below normal?
3. The fact we may be in a quiet phase. Only becamse active last year due to the PDO crash in late September, which allowed for about 85 ACE after September 25 (Matthew, Nicole, and Otto were a near average season by themselves)
1 likes
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23499
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: Dangerous 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted - GWO
Seems there is a lot of latent heat buildup with warmer than normal SSTs across the Gulf and with Miami seeing its warmest winter on record to to mention a real lack of winter across much of the United States this year. The second year after El Niño is also one to watch especially after the record-breaking El Niño we saw in 2015, we are in some uncharted waters this year. The key will be whether an El Niño makes a comeback but it could very well be a weak one or Modoki at best so I am with the GWO's prediction of higher numbers this year than last.
0 likes
Re: Dangerous 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted - GWO
GWO has not been a great source of accuracy the past several years at least what they have made public. I know they are a private bunch and perhaps what they show internally may benefit only their clients but myself and others made posts (wxman57) about them adjusting and verification issues for what they show publicly. See below
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116998&start=20
Last year they were removed from our expert list due to these verification issues
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116998&start=20
Last year they were removed from our expert list due to these verification issues
2 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7284
- Age: 43
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Re: Dangerous 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted - GWO
They have no scientific reasoning behind their forecast and most times they're dreadful
0 likes
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22500
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: Dangerous 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted - GWO
What did they forecast last season?
They don't publish past forecasts on their website, but I found the 2016 forecast at the wayback machine. They were a bit high on their numbers. The term "major impact hurricane" is vague. I suppose Matthew had a major impact on some areas. Just about any hurricane has a major impact on someone.
GWO predicts 2016 will enter a "Climate Pulse Hurricane Enhancement Cycle
17 named storms - 9 hurricanes - 4 major hurricanes
Major Impact hurricane will likely strike the U.S. in 2016
They don't publish past forecasts on their website, but I found the 2016 forecast at the wayback machine. They were a bit high on their numbers. The term "major impact hurricane" is vague. I suppose Matthew had a major impact on some areas. Just about any hurricane has a major impact on someone.
GWO predicts 2016 will enter a "Climate Pulse Hurricane Enhancement Cycle
17 named storms - 9 hurricanes - 4 major hurricanes
Major Impact hurricane will likely strike the U.S. in 2016
0 likes
- TheStormExpert
- Category 5
- Posts: 8487
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
- Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Re: Dangerous 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted - GWO
They nailed the number of MH's for the 2016 but were only short two for both NS's and H's. I'd say it was mostly luck as to why they came so close to being spot on with last seasons numbers, but what do I know.
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1704
- Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2003 10:53 am
- Location: Nags Head, NC
- Contact:
Re: Dangerous 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted - GWO
Let’s face the “Sky is falling” is the best technique for selling their product. And as said before they were dropped because of their verification difficulties. If you go to their site you will notice that they have 11 zones, each zone costing $147.99 (with the exception of zone 11 which inexplicably cost $199.99). Just for the fun of it I was thinking of purchasing the zone 3 package, but I spent it on a $150.00 on shipping a debit card worth 10.5 million (yes, I’m kidding). Btw, I would be upset if I lived in Brownsville, why is that report $50.00 more than all the rest.
0 likes
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33397
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Dangerous 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted - GWO
Warm ocean temperatures don't get systems developing though, and they can't always counteract other factors like shear and dry air.
Even in the least active seasons with below normal SST's, the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and near the Bahamas are more than warm enough to support a major hurricane.
Even in the least active seasons with below normal SST's, the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and near the Bahamas are more than warm enough to support a major hurricane.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2312
- Joined: Thu Aug 22, 2013 12:06 pm
- Location: Lumberton, Texas
Maybe GWO hurricane prediction isn't unrealistic after all
with all the new info coming out, EURO showing what its showing now, maybe GWO is on to something.
http://www.prweb.com/releases/2017/02/prweb14025554.htm
http://www.globalweatheroscillations.com/
http://www.prweb.com/releases/2017/02/prweb14025554.htm
http://www.globalweatheroscillations.com/
0 likes
- Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7284
- Age: 43
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Re: Maybe GWO hurricane prediction isn't unrealistic after all
Maybe but there is no real reasoning in their forecast
1 likes
- xtyphooncyclonex
- Category 5
- Posts: 3688
- Age: 22
- Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
- Location: Cebu City
- Contact:
Re: Dangerous 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted - GWO
It's not yet even October, but here we are at 13 storms, 8 hurricanes, 5 majors and 2 category 5's (possibly 3) with an ACE approaching 200 for the first time in over the decade. Another noteworthy feature: Harvey broke the US drought of major hurricanes after 11 years, with Irma following the former a few weeks later over South Florida. All predictions have underestimated this season and sadly, it is a dangerous one indeed.
2 likes
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.
Re: Dangerous 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted - GWO
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:It's not yet even October, but here we are at 13 storms, 8 hurricanes, 5 majors and 2 category 5's (possibly 3) with an ACE approaching 200 for the first time in over the decade. Another noteworthy feature: Harvey broke the US drought of major hurricanes after 11 years, with Irma following the former a few weeks later over South Florida. All predictions have underestimated this season and sadly, it is a dangerous one indeed.
Not "all" predictions Take a look back at the pre-season Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll (though, if "all" referring to professional organizations than yes i'd agree with that statement)
1 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- toad strangler
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4177
- Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
- Location: Earth
- Contact:
Re: Dangerous 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted - GWO
NOAA mid season update was stellar at a time when things were still pretty slow.
1 likes
- SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9622
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: Dangerous 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted - GWO
Sky did fall in 2017..great forecast or lucky call who knows..
4 likes
Re: Dangerous 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted - GWO
Ntxw wrote:GWO has not been a great source of accuracy the past several years at least what they have made public. I know they are a private bunch and perhaps what they show internally may benefit only their clients but myself and others made posts (wxman57) about them adjusting and verification issues for what they show publicly. See below
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116998&start=20
Last year they were removed from our expert list due to these verification issues
Rightfully removed I might add. Its far easier for any single person or group to come in after the effect and suddenly present numbers and details that no one else can clearly verify. If a theory, model or tool exists that can more accurately predict an upcoming hurricane season (not to mention further claims to predicts 2 years in advance), then come forward and "wow the critical thinkers" with one's dazzling skill. Otherwise, all that we're seeing is yet another snake oil salesman making broad and vague claims just to fill in the missing details when the dust has finally cleared and fallen.
Tell ya what, I suggest that S2K come out with their own "paid prognostication" service that simply uses a correlated S2K Member group poll average (or a group average and then weighted by the 10 most accurately predicated members for the prior season). The prediction will likewise predict the upcoming years' total activity, number of hurricanes, T.S.'s, Major 'Canes, ACE, as well as anticipated regional zones of heightened storm track and projected risk. I think there's plenty of historical data to support the argument of a greater collective accuracy by prior year S2K Polls as compared to other professional or renown agencies and organizations. The service can be sold to Private & Commercial entities for a price that would amount to 1% of the cost that GWO charges, and additionally provide these paying customers free unfettered access to member opinion, analysis, & insights. S2K gains a boost in Internet traffic, further visibility to the worldwide amateur and professional meteorology community, and perhaps adds an additional vertical source of revenue to S2K coffers. Meanwhile, S2K poll members who participated in that years' generated Seasonal Prediction can be reciprocated by each polling member receiving a free (S2k Weather or Storm Geek?) tee shirt and special avatar indicating a new unique member group status within S2K.
1 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Dangerous 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted - GWO
toad strangler wrote:NOAA mid season update was stellar at a time when things were still pretty slow.
What? Wait...., you mean the mid season update that expressed an increase in seasonal activity that may ultimately range from 10-30 named tropical systems LOL, or whatever their "range" system puts out?
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- toad strangler
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4177
- Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
- Location: Earth
- Contact:
Re: Dangerous 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted - GWO
chaser1 wrote:toad strangler wrote:NOAA mid season update was stellar at a time when things were still pretty slow.
What? Wait...., you mean the mid season update that expressed an increase in seasonal activity that may ultimately range from 10-30 named tropical systems LOL, or whatever their "range" system puts out?
No, they specifically warned about a huge ramp up.
0 likes
Re: Dangerous 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted - GWO
toad strangler wrote:chaser1 wrote:toad strangler wrote:NOAA mid season update was stellar at a time when things were still pretty slow.
What? Wait...., you mean the mid season update that expressed an increase in seasonal activity that may ultimately range from 10-30 named tropical systems LOL, or whatever their "range" system puts out?
No, they specifically warned about a huge ramp up.
Yes they did however I'm rather poking fun at how this accurately predictive "ramp up" was
1) announced on August 9
2) increased from 11-17 named storms, to 14 to 19 named tropical systems this year.
I don't find it nearly that impressive if their forecast was "11 named storms" that was upped to "14 named storms. I'd be far more impressed if their forecast "was" 17 named storms and increased to 19 named storms. By the way, NOAA's forecast for number of named storms reaching hurricane intensity, did not change from early on and was predicted to be from 5-9. That's like me predicting a soccer team is going to score from 2-4 goals on any given night. Like "really", no kidding lol?? (for those who will respond, "well, they're not in the seasonal prediction business..." thats okay neither am I, or are many other people I know).
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- xtyphooncyclonex
- Category 5
- Posts: 3688
- Age: 22
- Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
- Location: Cebu City
- Contact:
Re: Dangerous 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted - GWO
chaser1 wrote:xtyphooncyclonex wrote:It's not yet even October, but here we are at 13 storms, 8 hurricanes, 5 majors and 2 category 5's (possibly 3) with an ACE approaching 200 for the first time in over the decade. Another noteworthy feature: Harvey broke the US drought of major hurricanes after 11 years, with Irma following the former a few weeks later over South Florida. All predictions have underestimated this season and sadly, it is a dangerous one indeed.
Not "all" predictions Take a look back at the pre-season Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll (though, if "all" referring to professional organizations than yes i'd agree with that statement)
I don't think anyone expected 200 ACE. I'm focused on the ACE/intensity over the storm count itself
0 likes
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Collenyd, Google [Bot], Google Adsense [Bot], jgh, LarryWx, Pas_Bon, Stratton23, weatherSnoop and 46 guests