ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical Low - Discussion

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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#241 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 27, 2017 8:15 pm

Hammy wrote:Since Lee made it to major operationally, it wouldn't surprise me to see the post-analysis intensity bumped up to 105-110kt.


I'd guess that it probably peaked in that range too. It seems to be on its way down now though.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#242 Postby WeatherGuesser » Thu Sep 28, 2017 5:14 am

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
500 AM AST Thu Sep 28 2017

Although Lee remains a powerful hurricane, the cloud pattern
appears to be gradually losing some organization. The eye has
become ragged at times, and the convective pattern is now more
asymmetric with convection becoming limited over the northwestern
quadrant. The initial wind speed is held at 95 kt, based on an
average of the Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB/SAB and CIMSS at the
University of Wisconsin, but this could be a little generous.

Lee is headed toward an environment of strong wind shear and cooler
waters. These more hostile conditions should cause the system to
steadily weaken during the next couple of days, and Lee will likely
fall below hurricane strength in 36 to 48 hours. The system is
expected to lose its tropical characteristics in a little more than
2 days when it will be over SSTs below 20 deg C and in an
environment of about 30 kt of westerly shear. Dissipation is now
predicted to occur by day 3, in agreement with the latest runs of
the GFS and ECMWF models. The NHC intensity forecast is an update
of the previous one, and it remains in good agreement with the ICON
and HCCA consensus aids.

Lee has turned to the north at 8 kt on the western side of a
mid-level ridge. The hurricane is forecast to begin accelerating
to the northeast later today when it becomes embedded in fast
mid-latitude flow, and it should continue moving in that direction
until it dissipates. The models are tightly clustered, and only
minor changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 32.5N 57.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 34.5N 56.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 37.4N 53.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 41.0N 47.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 44.7N 39.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#243 Postby Kazmit » Thu Sep 28, 2017 8:44 am

Lee is looking somewhat ragged this morning, and seems to be on its way out. I have a feeling that Lee was a major during its first peak, and a while before being upgraded to one as well.

Image
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Re: ATL: LEE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#244 Postby GeneratorPower » Fri Sep 29, 2017 7:15 pm

I'm sorry, I've been away for a couple weeks. You're telling me Lee is still a cyclone?!!!?!?!?
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Re: ATL: LEE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#245 Postby HurricaneRyan » Fri Sep 29, 2017 10:38 pm

These storms are excellerating quickly
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Re: ATL: LEE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#246 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sat Sep 30, 2017 6:28 am

^^ They excelled quite well, but are now accelerating.


"Moving: NE at 51 mph"

Dude be booking it. Somebody better get the Scotch Malt ready.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#247 Postby Kazmit » Sat Sep 30, 2017 7:44 am

As I always do, here's an image of Lee near peak intensity:

Image
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Re: ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical Low - Discussion

#248 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Sep 30, 2017 9:58 am

NHC has now declared Lee a post-tropical low.

...LEE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
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Re: ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical Low - Discussion

#249 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 30, 2017 10:43 am

That was quite the run from a joke storm to regenesis and becoming another major hurricane to add to the September to Remember. But unlike some of your brothers and sisters, at least you were harmless.

Don't let the :Door: slam on you on the way out Lee - see you in 2023!
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