ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[tarheelprogrammer]

So, it may be at or below 980 mb, when earlier pass was 985? It has went from 988 to 980 or less in two passes?

[bella_may]

90 MPH now? I could see a cat 2 coming.

Possibly stronger than 90 right now

[hurricaneCW]

Recon supports 95 mph, NHC will probably go with 90.

[PandaCitrus]

Looks like it's going to get up to a Cat 2 before landfall with at least 100mph.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I am going with 120 at landfall. Based on current trends on IR and recon.

[bella_may]

Category two by lunch time if I had to bet

[artist]

Undecoded Observation (hide)
URNT15 KNHC 071418
AF305 0816A NATE HDOB 35 20171007
140900 2641N 08750W 6973 03059 9958 +095 +092 140059 063 068 032 03
140930 2641N 08752W 6965 03069 9960 +098 +098 142075 080 074 021 03
141000 2640N 08754W 6978 03042 9935 +104 +104 146071 075 072 013 00
141030 2639N 08756W 6969 03039 9895 +115 +100 142071 072 076 007 03
141100 2638N 08757W 6967 03033 9893 +110 +102 141070 071 078 007 00
141130 2637N 08758W 6969 03018 9870 +118 +100 134070 073 082 015 00
141200 2635N 08800W 6964 03016 9865 +115 +103 130062 070 083 018 03
141230 2634N 08801W 6983 02983 9857 +117 +117 135056 065 080 028 03
141300 2633N 08802W 6963 02991 9831 +122 +121 146038 049 067 039 03
141330 2631N 08803W 6974 02979 9820 +127 +113 156027 034 064 007 03
141400 2630N 08804W 6968 02989 9822 +130 +104 163021 025 036 003 03
141430 2629N 08806W 6966 02995 9827 +126 +109 174016 020 032 005 03
141500 2629N 08808W 6972 02990 9820 +139 +088 187012 014 031 003 00
141530 2629N 08810W 6973 02990 9816 +144 +071 184012 014 030 003 00
141600 2629N 08812W 6970 02990 9803 +156 +058 171013 015 030 002 00
141630 2629N 08814W 6958 03008 9811 +150 +058 164013 015 023 000 00
141700 2628N 08816W 6971 02991 9826 +138 +061 155012 012 019 002 00
141730 2628N 08818W 6973 02996 9830 +135 +082 130006 011 021 002 00
141800 2627N 08820W 6965 03006 9831 +134 +099 077004 007 020 002 00
141830 2626N 08822W 6970 03002 9818 +149 +094 005011 017 020 001 00
Select All

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071428
AF305 0816A NATE HDOB 36 20171007
141900 2625N 08823W 6968 03011 9817 +157 +086 339019 022 018 001 00
141930 2624N 08825W 6975 03010 9825 +157 +082 345026 030 016 002 03
142000 2625N 08827W 6965 03024 9825 +161 +070 353026 032 /// /// 03
142030 2627N 08826W 6970 03019 9815 +170 +065 336025 027 /// /// 03
142100 2627N 08824W 6966 03016 9800 +176 +063 340027 028 016 002 00
142130 2627N 08822W 6977 02999 9817 +153 +082 005009 028 018 001 00
142200 2628N 08821W 6963 03006 9817 +145 +091 080005 006 020 001 00
142230 2629N 08819W 6969 02997 9817 +145 +089 152012 017 017 001 03
142300 2630N 08818W 6962 03008 9830 +137 +070 158015 017 010 001 03
142330 2632N 08818W 6974 02988 9822 +140 +075 133012 016 /// /// 03
142400 2632N 08820W 6967 02999 9830 +132 +088 086013 014 /// /// 03
142430 2630N 08821W 6977 02988 9822 +142 +089 062009 013 014 002 03
142500 2629N 08823W 6966 03007 9812 +155 +076 338015 018 017 001 00
142530 2628N 08824W 6967 03011 9806 +169 +066 325025 026 019 002 00
142600 2626N 08826W 6969 03018 9815 +169 +056 325031 033 019 002 00
142630 2625N 08827W 6966 03029 9835 +158 +066 323032 033 021 002 00
142700 2624N 08829W 6968 03035 9847 +154 +066 324036 037 030 004 00
142730 2622N 08830W 6967 03040 9845 +163 +061 325040 041 037 003 00
142800 2621N 08831W 6967 03051 9864 +154 +067 325037 039 039 002 00
142830 2620N 08833W 6973 03052 9871 +158 +056 324036 038 039 003 00
$$
;

[ScottNAtlanta]

I think the AF plane might have missed the center. Showing 980mb east of where they found the wind shift and 983mb at the wind shift. Unless I am missing something.

With it moving so fast I would guess its a little harder to hit the center. A target moving at 22mph must be a little harder

[artist]

000
URNT15 KWBC 071434
NOAA2 WD16A NATE HDOB 41 20171007
142500 2702N 08644W 4462 06762 0357 -075 -100 135047 050 036 002 00
142530 2701N 08642W 4464 06762 0359 -073 -106 136044 045 035 001 00
142600 2700N 08640W 4464 06761 0358 -073 -099 142044 045 037 002 00
142630 2700N 08638W 4465 06756 0356 -073 -100 157046 047 045 004 00
142700 2659N 08636W 4452 06775 0356 -075 -091 156046 048 041 020 00
142730 2659N 08633W 4467 06757 0358 -076 -085 153041 044 040 014 00
142800 2658N 08631W 4465 06762 0362 -070 -106 146036 038 038 004 00
142830 2658N 08629W 4463 06767 0364 -072 -110 151037 038 036 003 00
142900 2658N 08626W 4463 06767 0365 -071 -100 155042 044 038 005 00
142930 2657N 08623W 4464 06767 0366 -071 -094 163039 041 036 004 00
143000 2656N 08621W 4463 06769 0367 -075 -096 165037 039 036 003 00
143030 2656N 08618W 4463 06772 0368 -078 -095 165038 039 037 002 00
143100 2655N 08616W 4463 06772 0369 -078 -095 165036 037 037 001 00
143130 2654N 08613W 4463 06773 0369 -081 -092 165038 039 036 002 00
143200 2653N 08611W 4463 06772 0370 -082 -095 164038 038 036 000 00
143230 2652N 08609W 4463 06777 0372 -082 -098 158037 038 034 001 00
143300 2652N 08606W 4463 06776 0373 -080 -098 158035 036 034 001 00
143330 2651N 08604W 4461 06780 0374 -081 -112 156037 037 034 001 00
143400 2650N 08601W 4462 06779 0374 -084 -119 157038 038 035 001 00
143430 2649N 08559W 4461 06782 0375 -083 -121 155040 041 035 001 00

[PandaCitrus]

It's possible it could get up to cat 3. 115mph to 120mph is possible. The 22mph forward speed will definitely give the Eastern quadrant a boost compared to a slower moving storm. It'll also make the west side very weak comparatively.

One positive is it won't be a cat 2/3 very long so the surge may underperform.

[wxman57]

Center at 26.4N, 88.4W. Well west of NHC's track. Still not much wind west of the center.

[timmeister]

00Z CMC

[galaxy401]

Looks like those east of landfall will face the burnt of Nate. People living west of the area of landfall might not find that much wind.

[GCANE]

Heavy duty 55 mm/hr rain rate reported by AF305.
Something usually seen in Cat 3 to 4 TCs.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071438
AF305 0816A NATE HDOB 37 20171007
142900 2618N 08834W 6970 03061 9882 +153 +053 324033 036 037 003 00
142930 2617N 08836W 6967 03069 9886 +155 +047 316030 032 035 003 00
143000 2616N 08837W 6968 03072 9906 +142 +055 303026 028 032 002 00
143030 2614N 08838W 6972 03072 9922 +131 +065 309025 027 030 002 00
143100 2613N 08840W 6972 03075 9933 +126 +057 310029 030 026 002 00
143130 2612N 08841W 6965 03086 9933 +128 +052 305026 028 025 002 00
143200 2611N 08842W 6970 03085 9941 +126 +057 301026 026 025 002 00
143230 2609N 08844W 6967 03090 9947 +120 +065 299025 026 023 002 00
143300 2608N 08845W 6966 03093 9956 +116 +064 292024 025 022 001 00
143330 2607N 08846W 6970 03091 9964 +110 +067 290025 026 022 001 00
143400 2605N 08848W 6970 03092 9966 +110 +073 301024 025 021 001 00
143430 2604N 08849W 6967 03097 9965 +110 +074 303021 023 019 002 00
143500 2603N 08850W 6969 03099 9975 +107 +077 289023 024 019 002 00
143530 2602N 08852W 6967 03102 9976 +107 +074 284025 026 020 002 00
143600 2600N 08853W 6970 03099 9969 +114 +070 283024 025 023 002 03
143630 2559N 08854W 6967 03103 9970 +114 +068 288025 025 024 002 00
143700 2558N 08855W 6969 03104 9976 +111 +065 286026 027 020 001 00
143730 2557N 08857W 6967 03109 9980 +110 +066 286027 027 020 001 00
143800 2556N 08858W 6971 03104 9986 +106 +062 277025 026 020 001 00
143830 2554N 08859W 6965 03113 9986 +108 +054 281024 025 020 000 00
$$

[PandaCitrus]

The formula im aware of is 2x forward speed =44mph in difference between the strong and weak sides of a hurricane.

If max winds are 100mph at landfall, the west side should only get 55mph winds according to the formula.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KWBC 071444
NOAA2 WD16A NATE HDOB 42 20171007
143500 2648N 08556W 4461 06781 0374 -081 -125 157040 041 035 001 00
143530 2647N 08554W 4460 06782 0374 -079 -127 159041 041 034 001 00
143600 2646N 08551W 4459 06782 0373 -082 -125 157041 042 034 001 00
143630 2645N 08549W 4459 06782 0373 -084 -122 156042 042 033 000 00
143700 2644N 08546W 4460 06782 0375 -082 -125 156043 043 033 000 03
143730 2644N 08543W 4460 06785 0376 -082 -124 154041 042 032 001 03
143800 2645N 08540W 4461 06782 0375 -081 -120 156043 044 027 001 00
143830 2646N 08538W 4461 06784 0377 -079 -121 159045 046 024 001 00
143900 2647N 08535W 4459 06788 0379 -075 -125 160045 046 024 000 00
143930 2648N 08532W 4458 06791 0380 -077 -125 158045 045 023 001 00
144000 2649N 08529W 4459 06791 0381 -079 -123 160045 045 020 001 00
144030 2650N 08526W 4460 06790 0381 -086 -115 162046 046 023 001 00
144100 2651N 08523W 4458 06795 0383 -087 -111 162044 044 023 001 00
144130 2652N 08521W 4459 06797 0386 -088 -111 166043 044 025 001 00
144200 2653N 08518W 4460 06795 0388 -088 -108 165041 042 027 001 00
144230 2654N 08515W 4460 06796 0389 -088 -107 167039 040 027 000 00
144300 2655N 08512W 4461 06796 0389 -090 -110 166037 037 025 001 00
144330 2656N 08509W 4461 06797 0391 -091 -111 170039 040 025 001 00
144400 2657N 08506W 4459 06797 0390 -089 -114 168039 039 027 001 00
144430 2658N 08504W 4459 06798 0388 -089 -113 163039 040 026 001 00

[artist]

000
URNT12 KNHC 071447
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162017
A. 07/14:17:50Z
B. 26 deg 28 min N
088 deg 19 min W
C. 700 mb 2955 m
D. 82 kt
E. 066 deg 21 nm
F. 143 deg 81 kt
G. 064 deg 35 nm
H. 985 mb
I. 10 C / 3045 m
J. 18 C / 2973 m
K. 6 C / NA
L. OPEN SW
M. C24
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 0816A NATE OB 13
MAX FL WIND 84 KT 124 / 52 NM 12:55:50Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 095 / 9 KT
;

[GCANE]

2.5 hrs ago from Windsat, 37GHz: