otowntiger wrote:Back to nada for the next 16 days.
0z GFS at 360hrs for your entertainment
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otowntiger wrote:Back to nada for the next 16 days.
Frank2 wrote:Westerlies are dropping south, per Nate's lopsided landfall. Hopefully a good sign that the end of the season is nearing. GFS only shows a weak disturbance east of the Bahamas drifting north late this week. Statistically most seasons end in October or once the westerlies drop southward - lets hope so...
Frank2 wrote:That's the weak disturbance the GFS is showing as not doing much by the weekend. Since that tweet yesterday morning JB has shifted to other topics - lets hope the outcome stays that way...
Frank2 wrote:Westerlies are dropping south, per Nate's lopsided landfall. Hopefully a good sign that the end of the season is nearing. GFS only shows a weak disturbance east of the Bahamas drifting north late this week. Statistically most seasons end in October or once the westerlies drop southward - lets hope so...
Frank2 wrote:That's the weak disturbance the GFS is showing as not doing much by the weekend. Since that tweet yesterday morning JB has shifted to other topics - lets hope the outcome stays that way...
CyclonicFury wrote:Frank2 wrote:Westerlies are dropping south, per Nate's lopsided landfall. Hopefully a good sign that the end of the season is nearing. GFS only shows a weak disturbance east of the Bahamas drifting north late this week. Statistically most seasons end in October or once the westerlies drop southward - lets hope so...
Maybe seasons do usually end in late October for the U.S., but over half of Atlantic hurricane seasons feature a named storm form in November. At least 1 in 10 seasons have featured some sort of December activity.
You may be right. Sounds good to me.Frank2 wrote:Westerlies are dropping south, per Nate's lopsided landfall. Hopefully a good sign that the end of the season is nearing. GFS only shows a weak disturbance east of the Bahamas drifting north late this week. Statistically most seasons end in October or once the westerlies drop southward - lets hope so...
MetroMike wrote:12Z CMC has an area of low pressure coming in from the Atlantic moving west near the Florida straits next Saturday and then stalling in the Central Gulf then going back East towards the Florida West Central coast presumably as a Hurricane in 10 days
Would be surprised to see the same thing on the next run.
psyclone wrote:The fact that nothing is on the immediate docket is certainly good news. The fact that it's currently 90 with a 77 degree dewpoint (yielding at heat index of 103) at KTPA is not good news. The fact that the normal first front (typically around 10/10 for central florida) is nowhere in sight is not good news. to add to that the CPC extended outlooks show above normal temps continuing to blanket the eastern US until further notice. the reality is until we get repeated incursions of cool, dry air we (especially the Florida peninsula in the CONUS) will remain fair game for late season issues.
otowntiger wrote:You may be right. Sounds good to me.Frank2 wrote:Westerlies are dropping south, per Nate's lopsided landfall. Hopefully a good sign that the end of the season is nearing. GFS only shows a weak disturbance east of the Bahamas drifting north late this week. Statistically most seasons end in October or once the westerlies drop southward - lets hope so...
WeatherHoon wrote:Models continue to push back SWC development to the end of the run, so that seems to be good news. Of course things can happen without model support, but not seeing much is definitely encouraging.