ATL: OPHELIA - Extratropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#101 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 11, 2017 8:51 am

I think ADT needs to be thrown out right now as it is obviously too high. This is driving the SATCON mean up probably too high too. However, microwave intensity estimates (AMSU, ATMS, SSMIS) are all hanging out around 60 kt right now. That may be a good compromise intensity between subjective Dvorak and the possibly low-biased ASCAT data.

Image
0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#102 Postby Alyono » Wed Oct 11, 2017 8:52 am

ASCAT says this is still 40 kts

NHC needs to absolutely chuck the Dvorak estimates for this storm and give them the zero weight they deserve. This is a 40-45 kt TS at most
1 likes   

User avatar
Buck
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1128
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:04 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#103 Postby Buck » Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:16 am

Alyono wrote:ASCAT says this is still 40 kts

NHC needs to absolutely chuck the Dvorak estimates for this storm and give them the zero weight they deserve. This is a 40-45 kt TS at most


No doubt something is off, but I can't imagine only 40-45kt... best looking 40-45kt TS I've ever seen.
1 likes   

User avatar
fwbbreeze
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 885
Joined: Sun Mar 21, 2004 10:09 pm
Location: Fort Walton Beach, FL

Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#104 Postby fwbbreeze » Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:38 am

great structure this morning...though lacking deep convection.

Image
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#105 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:46 am

There is the resolution issue regarding ASCAT, but yeah in the absence of Recon, I would have only gone 50-55 kt (more weight on ASCAT despite the resolution issue). Perhaps the winds aren't reaching the surface over the cooler water.

If only money were unlimited and we could send Recon planes to the Azores to use as a base.
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#106 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:47 am

NHC goes with 60 kt, which is appears similar to my line of thinking.

000
WTNT42 KNHC 111439
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 11 2017

If I only had conventional satellite imagery, I would definitely
estimate that Ophelia was a hurricane. The cyclone has a ragged eye
surrounded by deep convection and cyclonically curved bands.
Furthermore, Dvorak intensity estimates, both subjective and
objective, from all agencies are T4.0 plus. However, several ASCAT
passes during the past day or so indicate that the winds have been
lower than the winds one could assign the cyclone by using Dvorak.
Once again this morning, a pair of ASCAT passes showed winds of
less than 45 kt, but I am assuming that the ASCAT can not resolve
the sharp wind gradient typically associated with an eyewall, and
earlier SSMIS data indicated that one is present. Since we do not
have a hurricane hunter plane to give us exact measurements, we
need to compromise between the very valuable satellite-based
estimates, and the initial intensity is set at 60 kt in this
advisory.

Although the ocean is not too warm, the shear is low and the
upper-troposphere is cool. These factors should provide some
low-octane fuel favoring slight strengthening, and Ophelia is
still expected to become a hurricane at any time within the next 12
hours. Extratropical transition is likely to start between day 3 and
day 4, and Ophelia is anticipated to remain a strong cyclone over
the northeastern Atlantic.

Ophelia is moving slowly toward the east at 3 kt, embedded within
light steering currents, and little motion is expected today. A
mid-level trough is forecast to amplify west of Ophelia, and this
pattern will provide a stronger southwesterly steering flow
which eventually force the cyclone to move toward the northeast with
increasing forward speed. Most of the track models agree with this
solution increasing the confidence in the track forecast. The NHC
forecast follows very closely the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA
which has been very skillful this season.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 30.0N 36.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 29.9N 36.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 30.1N 35.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 30.8N 34.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 31.5N 33.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 34.0N 26.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 40.0N 17.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 16/1200Z 51.5N 12.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila
1 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7281
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#107 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Oct 11, 2017 10:17 am

Looks like a hurricane to me. Will probably be upgraded to one later today.
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#108 Postby RL3AO » Wed Oct 11, 2017 10:20 am

I knew that was Lix after reading the first sentence. :lol:
7 likes   

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4665
Age: 62
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#109 Postby chaser1 » Wed Oct 11, 2017 10:27 am

Wonder how far a drone can be maneuvered to invest?
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#110 Postby Alyono » Wed Oct 11, 2017 11:24 am

Buck wrote:
Alyono wrote:ASCAT says this is still 40 kts

NHC needs to absolutely chuck the Dvorak estimates for this storm and give them the zero weight they deserve. This is a 40-45 kt TS at most


No doubt something is off, but I can't imagine only 40-45kt... best looking 40-45kt TS I've ever seen.


I'm surprised as well, but it is what it is
0 likes   

WeatherGuesser
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2672
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am

Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#111 Postby WeatherGuesser » Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:37 pm

Why is NHC still handling this when it's going away from North and Central America? Isn't there a Euro counterpart? Is is just by agreement or contract?
0 likes   

User avatar
BYG Jacob
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 893
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Aug 23, 2017 3:46 pm
Location: Tucson, Arizona

Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#112 Postby BYG Jacob » Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:42 pm

WeatherGuesser wrote:Why is NHC still handling this when it's going away from North and Central America? Isn't there a Euro counterpart? Is is just by agreement or contract?

The NHC is the defacto agency for the entire Atlantic for hurricanes.
0 likes   

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#113 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:43 pm

Take two.

AL, 17, 2017101118, , BEST, 0, 300N, 362W, 65, 990, HU, 34, NEQ, 40, 50, 60, 50, 1017, 300, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,
AL, 17, 2017101118, , BEST, 0, 300N, 362W, 65, 990, HU, 50, NEQ, 20, 30, 30, 20, 1017, 300, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,
AL, 17, 2017101118, , BEST, 0, 300N, 362W, 65, 990, HU, 64, NEQ, 0, 20, 20, 0, 1017, 300, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,
0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2297
Age: 28
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#114 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:43 pm

Time for the new ASCAT to ruin the mood once again. :lol:
1 likes   
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

User avatar
Kazmit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1915
Age: 21
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
Location: Williamsburg VA for college, Bermuda otherwise

Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#115 Postby Kazmit » Wed Oct 11, 2017 2:01 pm

If only recon could fly all the way out there. :P
0 likes   
Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019

I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Buck
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1128
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:04 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#116 Postby Buck » Wed Oct 11, 2017 2:42 pm

Kazmit wrote:If only recon could fly all the way out there. :P


If only they could fly from Portugal. :)
3 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#117 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Oct 11, 2017 2:51 pm

Cimss map changed to hurricane..
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 40
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#118 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed Oct 11, 2017 3:35 pm

Ophelia is now the 10th consecutive hurricane of the season. Wow...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
0 likes   

WeatherGuesser
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2672
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am

Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#119 Postby WeatherGuesser » Wed Oct 11, 2017 3:42 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 PM AST Wed Oct 11 2017

...OPHELIA BECOMES THE 10TH HURRICANE OF THE 2017 SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 36.1W
ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES
0 likes   

User avatar
Kazmit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1915
Age: 21
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
Location: Williamsburg VA for college, Bermuda otherwise

Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#120 Postby Kazmit » Wed Oct 11, 2017 4:16 pm

2017 is now tied with 1878, 1886, and 1893 for the most consecutive hurricanes on record. The most recent tropical storm formed on July 31st (Emily).
4 likes   
Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019

I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 26 guests