ATL: OPHELIA - Extratropical - Discussion

[EquusStorm]

Wow. If this were in a more traditional environment in the deep tropics and with colder cloud tops, the current satellite appearance would probably merit major hurricane intensity.

[Sciencerocks]

I'd estimate 85 knots now.

Full ring of orange on ir
Clearing eye

Lee was a major with a slightly warmer eye.

[1900hurricane]

Warm medium grey eye is present.

[gfsperpendicular]

NHC goes with Cat2/100mph, I think that's a good call.

[EquusStorm]

I assume perhaps the northeasternmost cat 2 since Ivan in 1980. This year continues to impress.

[NotoSans]

One example I can think of in which there is a large discrepancy between ASCAT and recon data would be Typhoon Utor in 2013. The aircraft estimated 10-minute sustained winds of around 70 knots while ASCAT at that time was showing winds of around 45 knots. The central pressure estimated by the aircraft also suggested typhoon intensity. Utor is not a a system with a very small core but ASCAT still fails to resolve it well. Of course ASCAT is a very reliable intensity estimation tool, but I think there are some other examples where there are unusual discrepancies between the real intensity and the ASCAT data, and one should not take the latter as the ground truth.
For Ophelia, I think the actual intensity may be a bit lower than the Dvorak estimates as the rather shallow convection may be affecting the surface mixing, but I would say it’s at least a mid or even high-end category 1.

[KWT]

Interesting presentation from Ophelia on the 12z ECM, it still looks pretty tropical west of Portugal, SSTs are low (20-21C) but probably still do-able in a low upper set-up environment and the estimated radar still has a distinct eye and eyewall feature. This then opens up and it looks like it restrengthens as a transitioning storm. 850hpa temps at core are 21C at this point, impressively high for the time of year.

By Sunday evening its extra-tropical looking as it goes into Ireland, still with a weak warm core left over and still has a good presentation. ECM has 90mph gusts into the southern coast of Ireland.

[NDG]

So has Ireland been struck by a true tropical hurricane before?
This is crazy.

[Alyono]

just saw the full EC as well. No doubt, this would be a hurricane had it taken the Vince track. Probably would have had a moderate to strong cat 1 plowing into Portugal.

This is rapidly transitioning as it approaches Ireland. If it moves faster than forecast, it may just remain tropical until landfall or closest approach

[Lifeless]

So has Ireland been struck by a true tropical hurricane before?
This is crazy.

Debbie was the closest https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Debbie_(1961) and probably the most similar to this storm, Hurricane strength winds but not tropical.

[Alyono]

So has Ireland been struck by a true tropical hurricane before?
This is crazy.

Debbie was the closest https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Debbie_(1961) and probably the most similar to this storm, Hurricane strength winds but not tropical.

just spoke to the person who did the reanalysis for Debbie. Became ET well away from Britain

[Lifeless]

So has Ireland been struck by a true tropical hurricane before?
This is crazy.

Debbie was the closest https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Debbie_(1961) and probably the most similar to this storm, Hurricane strength winds but not tropical.

just spoke to the person who did the reanalysis for Debbie. Became ET well away from Britain

Is there any information on what other storms have kept tropical characteristics closer to the British Isles by any chance then? Im curious.. the only one I can think of is Grace (if that's even correct), and although a bit further away, Vince.

In terms of wind speeds though, I feel like Debbie and Ophelia might end up being relatively similar if the models are anything to go by, but again, definitely not tropical.

[Alyono]

Debbie was the closest https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Debbie_(1961) and probably the most similar to this storm, Hurricane strength winds but not tropical.

just spoke to the person who did the reanalysis for Debbie. Became ET well away from Britain

Is there any information on what other storms have kept tropical characteristics closer to the British Isles by any chance then? Im curious.. the only one I can think of is Grace (if that's even correct), and although a bit further away, Vince.

In terms of wind speeds though, I feel like Debbie and Ophelia might end up being relatively similar if the models are anything to go by, but again, definitely not tropical.

when I looked at the EC, Ophelia is a borderline case. Cold air is wrapping around the circulation, though it remains warm core, yet the simulated satellite did not have a clear frontal signature

[CrazyC83]

Here's what Met Eireann has to say:

There has been some media coverage that hurricane Ophelia will impact Ireland to some degree at the start of next week. At this stage, there is strong evidence from the weather forecast models that its remnants will track close to or even over parts of Ireland, but at present, there are still a wide spread of possible outcomes. Our forecasters are treating the situation with caution and are in contact with our international colleagues, but given the lead time and the inherent uncertainties that come with the modelling of a tropical system it won’t be possible to quantify the exact timing, nor the strength or intensity of the wind and rain, in any great detail until later in the weekend. Ophelia won’t be a hurricane in meteorological terms when it reaches our part of the world as she will have moved over the cooler waters of the mid-Atlantic and undergone what is known as extra-tropical transition. So while there could be the threat of wind gusts reaching hurricane force or indeed heavy rainfall with this system, it means the traditional attributes of a hurricane – such as an eye or an eye-wall containing a core of hurricane force winds - are very unlikely to be present. Instead, it will likely engage and merge with a frontal zone in the Atlantic, morphing into a mid-latitude depression with tropical characteristics. Met Éireann forecasters will be keeping a close eye on the evolution of this storm over the coming days and warnings will be issued as confidence in the evolution allows.

https://www.met.ie/news/display.asp?ID=448

[sikkar]

Santa Maria island webcams: http://www.spotazores.com/ilha/1

[Kazmit]

That would be really interesting if Ophelia made landfall in Ireland as a fully tropical hurricane. But with this season, I wouldn't be that surprised.

[CrazyC83]

Seeing some black around the eye - that would be T5.0 I believe?

[FireRat]

Well the NHC cone has it striking Ireland as an 'H'.
Wow, that's just batshite crazy!

[supercane4867]

TXNT23 KNES 130022
TCSNTL

A. 17L (OPHELIA)

B. 13/0000Z

C. 30.5N

D. 35.1W

E. ONE/MET-10

F. T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...EYE PATTERN WITH A WMG EYE THAT IS SURROUNDED BY LG AND
EMBEDDED IN MG. THIS RESULTS IN A DT OF 5.0 WITH 0.5 ADDED FOR AN EYE
ADJUSTMENT. MET IS 5.0 AND PT IS 4.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...WHISNANT


00z best track is already up to 90kt.

[CrazyC83]

Well the NHC cone has it striking Ireland as an 'H'.
Wow, that's just batshite crazy!

Only thing crazier would be an M in that circle.