ATL: OPHELIA - Extratropical - Discussion

[EquusStorm]

Oh, and something else - as Wilma, the sixth major of 2005, didn't even develop until October 15th, we are ahead of 2005 on major hurricane count for a few days. Of course, 2004 beats both by a while with its 6th, and 2005 ended with seven, but still.

[supercane4867]

A major hurricane approaching Europe is definitely one of the weirdest scenes on history for the Atlantic.

[WAcyclone]

Very unusual place to be for a major hurricane:

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/919200325818507264







Source: NASA Worldview

[supercane4867]

SSTs around the Azores are near 24C(75F). Ophelia strengthened to major hurricane last night while moving over 25C waters and she's still maintaining CAT3 intensity on even cooler SSTs. This is unbelievable.

[Macrocane]

What a remarkable season! Even small systems that didn' seem to achieve too much at first sight like Lee and Ophelia have given us surprises. (Let's forget the first 5 storms )

[Hammy]

What a remarkable season! Even small systems that didn' seem to achieve too much at first sight like Lee and Ophelia have given us surprises. (Let's forget the first 5 storms )

Even those (except Cindy) overachieved merely by existing.

[supercane4867]

Still a major at 18z. Even more symmetrical than 6 hours ago.

As of 18:00 UTC Oct 14, 2017:

Location: 35.3°N 25.1°W
Maximum Winds: 100 kt  Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 960 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 15 NM






Ophelia is now showing up in the Western European sector of Eumetsat site.

[tatertawt24]

This really is like the second coming of 2005 where nearly every storm makes a name for itself by doing something weird and unexpected. Ophelia is reminding me most of Vince.

[Cryomaniac]

This reminds me a lot of Grace in 2009, given that it might impact the UK. It's been unseasonably warm here for the last couple of days, and is forecast to be over 70 degrees on Monday. I'll be interested if I get any strong winds here, like I did with Grace.

[CrazyC83]

Could this maybe make a run at category 4 status?

I'd go with 110 kt given its earlier numbers and more symmetrical appearance now.

[Alyono]

This really is like the second coming of 2005 where nearly every storm makes a name for itself by doing something weird and unexpected. Ophelia is reminding me most of Vince.

If this were going to Portugal and Spain, it would be nearly certain to make landfall as a borderline cat 1/2 hurricane, not extratropical

[CrazyC83]

If the watch/warning program was used in Europe, we'd be at the point where a Hurricane Watch would be needed for parts of the British Isles.

[Alyono]

If the watch/warning program was used in Europe, we'd be at the point where a Hurricane Watch would be needed for parts of the British Isles.

Think Portugal and France use regular watches and warnings since they're issued for the French Caribbean as well as for the Azores

[supercane4867]

Ophelia will be only much stronger than Vince and Grace on her way to Europe. Looks like we may need to have some storm chasers on the ground in Ireland...is this real life?

[CrazyC83]

If the watch/warning program was used in Europe, we'd be at the point where a Hurricane Watch would be needed for parts of the British Isles.

Think Portugal and France use regular watches and warnings since they're issued for the French Caribbean as well as for the Azores

I know the British Caribbean uses them as well, but they are not run directly by the UK but rather by their individual territorial governments. That said, I'm not convinced it will be fully extratropical before at least strong winds reach the shores.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

If they were issued and looking at the 48 hour threat areas, I'd go with:

Hurricane Watch
* Killala to Yougall (Ireland), matching the Red Alert area

Tropical Storm Watch
* Yougall to Bettystown (Ireland), matching the Orange Alert area that will fall within the 48 hour threat - will need to extend north in time
* Plymouth to Gooseham (England)
* Isles of Scilly

[EquusStorm]

Kept at 100kt for the new advisory, but probably was stronger than that in between. Honestly I don't even know what to say about the surreal satellite shots from today. It's like the image of a significant hurricane was pasted onto the end of a trough way off somewhere where something that intense shouldn't be.

[supercane4867]

120kt wind gusts forecasted for the potential sting jet...ouch

[hurricaneCW]

I assume we've never seen a MH this far north & east in the Atlantic.

[Michele B]

That's what I was wondering....is this normal?!?!?

Seems weird. Like too far east and/or south to be in the Gulf Stream, where the water is very warm.

[Sciencerocks]

I assume we've never seen a MH this far north & east in the Atlantic.

yes. There has never been one this far north and east.

This has a chance of making ireland Tropical.