ATL: OPHELIA - Extratropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1213
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Extratropical - Discussion

#301 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Oct 16, 2017 1:35 pm

There are major wildfires going on in Portugal and apparently the fires are taking advantage of the winds from Ophelia. Gotten bad over there.
0 likes   
I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

User avatar
Kazmit
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 780
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
Location: Bermuda

Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Extratropical - Discussion

#302 Postby Kazmit » Mon Oct 16, 2017 2:21 pm

Damage looks worse than I expected. Could this be yet another retirement candidate?
0 likes   
Florence 2006, Bertha 2008, Igor 2010, Gabrielle 2013, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Karl 2016, Nicole 2016

I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 26941
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Extratropical - Discussion

#303 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Oct 16, 2017 4:02 pm

Kazmit wrote:Damage looks worse than I expected. Could this be yet another retirement candidate?


Perhaps? I'm thinking this ends up several billion dollars (USD equivalent).
0 likes   

Whiskerbarb
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 5
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2017 7:38 am

Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Extratropical - Discussion

#304 Postby Whiskerbarb » Mon Oct 16, 2017 5:18 pm

Very stormy night at the moment here in the East of England. Currently 50-60 mph winds Gusting to 70 mph blowing over anything that's not tied down. Hopefully no more injuries or worse.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 26941
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Extratropical - Discussion

#305 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Oct 16, 2017 8:41 pm

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Based on all the data I have seen, here is what I would set (UNOFFICIAL) as the BT for Ophelia:

AL172017, OPHELIA, 31,
20171009, 0000, , TS, 30.5N, 40.1W, 35, 1006,
20171009, 0600, , TS, 30.9N, 40.0W, 35, 1006,
20171009, 1200, , TS, 31.3N, 39.9W, 40, 1004,
20171009, 1800, , TS, 31.7N, 39.6W, 40, 1003,
20171010, 0000, , TS, 32.0N, 39.1W, 40, 1002,
20171010, 0600, , TS, 31.9N, 38.8W, 40, 1002,
20171010, 1200, , TS, 31.6N, 38.5W, 40, 1002,
20171010, 1800, , TS, 31.3N, 38.2W, 45, 1000,
20171011, 0000, , TS, 30.9N, 37.8W, 45, 999,
20171011, 0600, , TS, 30.4N, 37.2W, 50, 996,
20171011, 1200, , TS, 30.0N, 36.7W, 50, 996,
20171011, 1800, , TS, 29.8N, 36.2W, 55, 993,
20171012, 0000, , HU, 29.9N, 35.9W, 65, 985,
20171012, 0600, , HU, 30.1N, 35.7W, 70, 982,
20171012, 1200, , HU, 30.3N, 35.6W, 80, 974,
20171012, 1800, , HU, 30.5N, 35.5W, 85, 969,
20171013, 0000, , HU, 30.5N, 35.1W, 85, 969,
20171013, 0600, , HU, 30.9N, 34.4W, 80, 973,
20171013, 1200, , HU, 31.4N, 33.3W, 75, 975,
20171013, 1800, , HU, 31.9N, 32.5W, 80, 972,
20171014, 0000, , HU, 32.6N, 31.5W, 85, 968,
20171014, 0600, , HU, 33.4N, 29.7W, 95, 961,
20171014, 1200, , HU, 34.2N, 27.7W, 105, 952,
20171014, 1800, , HU, 35.3N, 25.1W, 110, 950, Maximum wind and minimum pressure
20171015, 0000, , HU, 36.3N, 22.7W, 100, 954,
20171015, 0600, , HU, 38.0N, 19.7W, 90, 957,
20171015, 1200, , HU, 40.1N, 16.9W, 85, 959,
20171015, 1800, , HU, 43.1N, 14.5W, 80, 958,
20171016, 0000, , HU, 47.8N, 13.3W, 80, 954,
20171016, 0300, S, EX, 49.0N, 13.1W, 80, 952, Became extratropical
20171016, 0600, , EX, 49.9N, 12.7W, 75, 952,
20171016, 1200, , EX, 52.1N, 10.8W, 70, 954,
20171016, 1600, L, EX, 53.4N, 9.9W, 65, 958, Landfall - Roundstone, Galway (as extratropical cyclone)
20171016, 1800, , EX, 53.9N, 9.2W, 65, 961,
20171017, 0000, , EX, 56.4N, 6.5W, 55, 972,

A few notes:

* Until the eyewall was well established, the intensities are lower than Dvorak suggests due to the fact ASCAT passes were running low.
* The peak intensity - 110 kt - is based on a blend of several analyses showing T5.5 to T6.0, and the ADT was around T5.9 at the time.
* Extratropical transition is placed at 0300Z October 16, which is not at synoptic time, as it still had deep convection and a weak eye at 0000Z but it was gone in the next couple hours.
* The 959 pressure at Valentia was likely a bit east of the true center - at the time it was just offshore from what I could analyze (so the pressure at 1200Z was likely a bit lower, I analyzed it at 954).
2 likes   

User avatar
weathaguyry
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1146
Age: 15
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
Location: Sandy Devastation Area, NY

Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Extratropical - Discussion

#306 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Oct 16, 2017 9:28 pm

Hmm, that would be a good question if this would get retired or not, because it did have significant impact, but it was ET and outside the NHC forecasting zone, so I would think not.
1 likes   
My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.

Irene 11', Sandy 12'

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 26941
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Extratropical - Discussion

#307 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Oct 16, 2017 10:20 pm

weathaguyry wrote:Hmm, that would be a good question if this would get retired or not, because it did have significant impact, but it was ET and outside the NHC forecasting zone, so I would think not.


The big case against retirement is that the main impact was to a country that isn't even part of RA IV and doesn't sit on the committee.
1 likes   

User avatar
Buck
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 841
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:04 pm

Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Extratropical - Discussion

#308 Postby Buck » Tue Oct 17, 2017 6:20 am

CrazyC83 wrote:
weathaguyry wrote:Hmm, that would be a good question if this would get retired or not, because it did have significant impact, but it was ET and outside the NHC forecasting zone, so I would think not.


The big case against retirement is that the main impact was to a country that isn't even part of RA IV and doesn't sit on the committee.


Agreed... maybe this signals the opportunity for the WMO to add some 'outside members' to the committee... Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Cabo Verde, etc. for when special circumstances arrive such as this.
1 likes   

User avatar
abajan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3217
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Rendezvous Hill, Christ Church, Barbados

Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Extratropical - Discussion

#309 Postby abajan » Tue Oct 17, 2017 6:46 am

CrazyC83 wrote:The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service. ...

You do know this is no longer required with any posts, right? The rule has been changed for several months now.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 26941
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Extratropical - Discussion

#310 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 17, 2017 10:42 am

abajan wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service. ...

You do know this is no longer required with any posts, right? The rule has been changed for several months now.


I still do it as courtesy.
2 likes   

User avatar
Vince_and_Grace_fan
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 73
Joined: Thu Nov 03, 2016 9:25 am
Location: Szombathely (Hungary)

Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Extratropical - Discussion

#311 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Wed Oct 18, 2017 8:47 am

I made satellite animations from Ophelia:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QeOV4ERPvPY
1 likes   

User avatar
abajan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3217
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Rendezvous Hill, Christ Church, Barbados

Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Extratropical - Discussion

#312 Postby abajan » Wed Oct 18, 2017 12:17 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
abajan wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service. ...

You do know this is no longer required with any posts, right? The rule has been changed for several months now.


I still do it as courtesy.

Okay, fair enough. Just wanted to be sure you knew of the change.
0 likes   


Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest