WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W

[euro6208]

94W INVEST 171016 1800 12.0N 118.0E WPAC 15 1010

The models were very excited with this a few days ago. GFS had a Cat 5 and EURO had this making landfall over Vietnam.

[doomhaMwx]

The models were very excited with this a few days ago. GFS had a Cat 5 and EURO had this making landfall over Vietnam.

Yeah, a few days ago ... Models show a different solution now...

[doomhaMwx]

Models indicate an eastward track for 94W, passing through the Visayas islands and emerging into the Philippine Sea within the next 3 days or so, and eventually being absorbed by Lan...



There appears to be a small window of opportunity for some weak development to occur (TD to weak TS) as it passes over the Philippine archipelago and/or once it emerges east of the Philippines, before being absorbed by the stronger and larger Lan...

[euro6208]

LOW chance.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12N
118.3E, APPROXIMATELY 221 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES .
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTH
WESTERN PERIPHERY. A 170201Z 89GHZ AMSU AND METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWS AN ELONGATED AND DISORGANIZED CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE SOUTH WESTERN PORTION OF THE
DISTURBANCE. THE UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE,
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS) AND VERY WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT
INDICATING DEVELOPMENT AS ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO NEARBY
TS 25W WILL PREVENT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION FROM PERSISTING AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

It looks horrible. Latest coordinates has the center near the Northern Tip of Palawan.

[euro6208]

Literally no model support now.

[doomhaMwx]

94W near Palawan is now the subject of a TCFA...

REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12N
118.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 115.8E, APPROXIMATELY 443 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FORMATIVE BANDING AND BROAD CONVECTION WRAPPING IN FROM THE
SOUTH WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS)
WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS). OBSERVATIONS
FROM PUERTO PRINCESA SHOW A THREE MILLIBAR PRESSURE DROP OVER THE
LAST THREE HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE EAST
TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINES. A 180142Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS DEPICTS 15-20
KNOT WIND BARBS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY ON THE
DISTURBANCE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
FEEDS INTO THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK AND SHORT-LIVED AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD AND GETS ABSORBED INTO
NEARBY TY 25W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

[doomhaMwx]

GFS and ECMWF models indicate a greater opportunity for it organize/strengthen further into a Tropical Depression or into a weak Tropical Storm when it enters the Sulu Sea this Wednesday night or tomorrow(Thursday) morning PhT... Passage over the Visayas region will also occur tomorrow... It will then emerge into the Philippine Sea (east of the Philippines) and eventually be absorbed by the stronger and larger Tropical Cyclone Lan...





Looks like this will be a small/compact storm system passing through the Visayas, but something worth paying attention to is that a larger area will experience stronger winds to the south of the center, as compared to the north, due to southwesterly winds being enhanced in the region...

[euro6208]

We now have 26W.


26W TWENTYSIX 171018 1800 9.6N 116.8E WPAC 25 1002

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 388 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LIMITED AREA OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO
A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 181341Z
89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION MOSTLY IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH EVIDENCE OF FORMATIVE BANDING. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI AGENCY
POSITION FIXES AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM T1.0 TO T1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES
RESPECTIVELY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS
TRACKING THROUGH AND AREA OF WARM (30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TD 26W HAS A WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
AND NO POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO
THE NORTHEAST ALONG A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W.
B. TD 26W IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES SHORTLY
AFTER TAU 12, TRANSIT ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES, AND TRACK OUT INTO THE
PACIFIC OCEAN SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY
DUE TO ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FEEDING INTO THE CIRCULATION,
THOUGH SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THE SYSTEM
TRACKING OVER LAND. AROUND TAU 36, AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE
EASTERN PHILIPPINES, IT WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH TYPHOON 25W
(LAN), EVENTUALLY BECOMING ABSORBED BY TY 25W BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TXPQ22 KNES 182140
TCSWNP
CCA

A. 26W (NONAME)

B. 18/2030Z

C. 9.8N

D. 116.7E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5/d1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR STORM DESIGNATION. SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED
BY CIRCULAR DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND A CENTER LOCATED NEAR A SMALL COLD
OVERCAST MEASURING LESS THAN 1.5 DEG FOR A DT=2.0 MET AND PT ARE 1.5. FT
IS BASED ON MET DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN CENTER FIX POSITION AND A LACK
OF CLEAR CUT FEATURES.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER

[euro6208]

TPPN12 PGTW 190027

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (W OF PHILIPPINES)

B. 19/0000Z

C. 10.38N

D. 117.35E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO
CLASSIFY.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


DAVIS

[doomhaMwx]

Contrary to what I was expecting yesterday, it appears that 26W will take roughly another 24hrs to enter the Sulu Sea...
Nonetheless, expected effects/impacts in the Visayas from this storm system together with enhanced southwesterly winds in the region are still pretty much the same...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Weaker Lan = Stronger 26W and 93W??

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Worst case scenario would be something like Jangmi.... Unexpectedly intensified with an eye over Visayas

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 10.9N 118.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9N 118.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 12.0N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 13.3N 123.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 11.2N 118.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 283 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED AS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION UNRAVELED AND THE CONVECTION SHEARED WESTWARD. THE
INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 4-HOUR OLD
ASCAT PASS AND THE 190451Z GPM MICROWAVE PARTIAL PASS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA
OF STRONG 25-KNOT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM TYPHOON 25W 795 NM TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST. DUE TO THE HARSH ENVIRONMENT, TD 26W IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY TAU 12 AS IT DRAGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE
ARCHIPELAGO. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z
IS 8 FEET. REFER TO TYPHOON 25W (LAN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN