WPAC: SAOLA

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm 27W

#21 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:31 am

Image

WDPN33 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 403 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
AT THE ONSET A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION PARTIALLY EXPOSED BEFORE
TUCKING INTO THE OVERCAST CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON THE MSI LOOP WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD
HIGHER THAN DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) TO REFLECT THE
SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
WITH A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A TUTT CELL TO THE
NORTHEAST. SSTS IN THE AREA AT 31 CELSIUS ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE. THE
CYCLONE IS QUASI-STATIONARY BETWEEN COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES: A
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED TO REFLECT THE VERY SLOW
STORM MOTION, AND CONSEQUENTLY, WEAK INTENSIFICATION.
B. TS 27W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR
GRADUALLY DOMINATES AND ASSUMES STEERING. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS SLOW TO CONSOLIDATE
RESULTING IN A WEAK/FLARING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TS 27W WILL
MAINTAIN A WEAK 35-4O KNOT CENTRAL WIND SPEED UP TO TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 27W WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY GAINS
LATITUDE AND CONSOLIDATES, THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL IMPROVE AND
PROMOTE STEADY INTENSIFICATION, REACHING 45 KNOTS BY TAU 120 AS THE
CYCLONE APPROACHES SAIPAN. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS WIDELY
SPREAD IN ALL DIRECTIONS, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#22 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:34 am

One good thing about this getting upgraded to a TS is that its adding more ACE seen on Maue and Colorado State's website. It just needs a name.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#23 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:37 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (Tropical Storm - JTWC)

#24 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:12 pm

WDPN33 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS WEAK FLARING, FRAGMENTED, AND
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT IS OBSCURING AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON AN ELONGATED AND
RAGGED LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 201118Z MICROWAVE
PASS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T2.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENED
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH A
DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A TUTT CELL TO THE
NORTHEAST. SSTS IN THE AREA AT 31 CELSIUS ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE.
HOWEVER, THE CYCLONE IS STRUGGLING TO ORGANIZE AND IS QUASI-
STATIONARY BETWEEN COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES: A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 27W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE
STR SLOWLY DOMINATES AND ASSUMES STEERING. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS SLOW TO CONSOLIDATE
RESULTING IN THE WEAK AND FLARING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TD 27W WILL
STRUGGLE AS A WEAK CYCLONE WITH 30-35 KNOT CENTRAL WIND SPEED UP TO
TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 27W WILL REMAIN IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AS THE SYSTEM
SLOWLY GAINS LATITUDE AND CONSOLIDATES, THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL
IMPROVE AND PROMOTE SOME INTENSIFICATION, REACHING 45 KNOTS BY TAU
120 AS THE CYCLONE SKIRTS JUST TO THE NORTH OF GUAM. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT TO A NORTHWEST- TO
SOUTHWEST-WARD TRAJECTORY; HOWEVER, THERE IS A WIDE SPREAD IN
DIRECTION AND SPEED AMONG THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS, LENDING OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (Tropical Storm - JTWC)

#25 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:14 pm

Image
Image


The size though. :eek:
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (Tropical Storm - JTWC)

#26 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 20, 2017 11:27 pm

WDPN33 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN)
WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
284 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA, NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER
THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF THE LLCC AND BROADER FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER
THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. MSI SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED
ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM PGTW
AND RECENT OSCAT DATA. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE (15
TO 20 KNOTS) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT, ENHANCED BY A WEAKENING TUTT CELL NEAR 26N 154E. TD 27W IS
TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 27W IS POSITIONED WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT
WITH A LOW-LEVEL (700MB) SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST, AND A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. A RECENT GUAM UPPER-AIR SOUNDING SUPPORTS THE PRESENCE OF
THE NER POSITIONED WEST OF GUAM WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 850-
500MB, WHICH MAINTAINS RESULTING IN A SLOW WESTWARD TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. THE TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH,
WHICH IS CURRENTLY AIDING OUTFLOW, IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH WEAK
EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
PERSISTING OVER THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 48 TO 72. THIS WILL LIMIT
INTENSIFICATION. DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SOLUTIONS
TRACKING 27W SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 27W, IF IT SURVIVES THE MARGINAL
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AS THE NER WEAKENS AND RECEDES EQUATORWARD, AND THE SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. TD 27W IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IMPROVES.
OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (Tropical Storm - JTWC)

#27 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 20, 2017 11:29 pm

Image

Now expected to pass south of Guam and weaker. All watches discontinued for the CNMI.
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (Tropical Storm - JTWC)

#28 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sat Oct 21, 2017 3:39 am

There is an even greater uncertainty as far as the track is concerned after 27W moves past the Marianas...

Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (Tropical Storm - JTWC)

#29 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 21, 2017 6:06 am

Image

Very good and detailed analysis. Could be a sleeper. It has a TS passing south of Guam.

WDPN33 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN)
WARNING NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 253
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH VERY LIMITED CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED LARGELY ON
PERSISTENCE FROM PREVIOUS DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30KTS), A
202313Z OSCAT IMAGE SHOWING A SOLID REGION OF 30 KNOT WIND BARBS ON
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY, AND A 210548Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 33
KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH, WHICH
PREVIOUSLY PROVIDED AN OUTFLOW MECHANISM, HAS DETERIORATED UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. INCREASING EASTERLY
FLOW FROM THE RIDGE HAS ALSO LED TO A RAPIDLY DETERIORATING SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE VERY WARM IN EXCESS OF 30
CELSIUS, BUT THE DETERIORATING UPPER-LEVELS HAVE THUS FAR HINDERED
THE POSSIBILITY OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TD 27W IS TRACKING SLOWLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 27W IS POSITIONED WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT
WITH MID-TO-LOW LEVEL RIDGES POSITIONED TO BOTH THE SOUTHWEST AND
NORTHEAST. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL RESULT IN A SLOW AND UNCERTAIN
TRACK MOTION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE WESTERN RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO BUILD BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE DOMINANT AND RESULTING IN A TRACK
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BEYOND TAU 36, THE
WESTERN RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RETREATING TO THE SOUTHWEST
WHILE THE EASTERN RIDGE STRENGTHENS, ACCELERATING TD 27W ON A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. INTENSE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST WHILE
TRAPPED BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES MITIGATING THE LIKELIHOOD OF FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE EASTERN STEERING RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AND AROUND TAU 72 UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE. SHOULD THE LLCC SURVIVE THE HOSTILE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT, THE IMPROVING CONDITIONS ALOFT COUPLED WITH SSTS
REMAINING FAVORABLY WARM, TD 27W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN GRADUALLY
INTENSIFYING. AROUND TAU 96 THE STEERING RIDGE WILL WEAKEN
SUFFICIENTLY TO BEGIN SLOWING DOWN TD 27W, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
ENTERING A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TRACK BEYOND TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE STEERING PHILOSOPHY, HOWEVER, THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL
UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT POSITION AND TIMING OF THE TURN THE NORTHWEST.
DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
WHILE IN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (Tropical Storm - JTWC)

#30 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 21, 2017 6:23 am

Image

Looks alot better.
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (Tropical Storm - JTWC)

#31 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 21, 2017 6:53 am

Indeed the GFS gone *Saola* becoming a typhoon well northwest of Guam.

00Z peaked it at 966mb and latest 06Z at 955 mb. Could be a threat for Iwo To down the road.

To complicate the track even further, GFS develops another system in front of it northeast of the Northern Marianas.

EURO brings this near Taiwan as seen from a couple post up.
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (Tropical Storm - JTWC)

#32 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 21, 2017 7:12 am

Very lucky this isn't a well established TC. The OHC potential is incredible.

Image

The maximum AMPI and RMPI is 169 and 165 knots.
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W

#33 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 21, 2017 4:08 pm

Image

65 knot peak.

WDPN33 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN)
WARNING NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
200 NM SOUTHEAST OF HAGATNA, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING, INTENSE CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 211822Z
SSMIS 91GHZ INDICATES A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE
PAST DAY WITH FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A
DEFINED CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS,
HEDGED HIGHER THAN DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T1.5 FROM KNES AND PGTW,
BASED ON A RECENT ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO
STRONG (25 TO 35 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY
STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, ENHANCED BY A WEAKENING TUTT CELL NEAR 28N
153E. TD 27W IS TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN A
COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 27W IS POSITIONED WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT
WITH A LOW-LEVEL (700MB) SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST, AND A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. A RECENT GUAM UPPER-AIR SOUNDING SUPPORTS THE PRESENCE OF
THE NER POSITIONED WEST OF GUAM WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT 850-
600MB, PRODUCING THE SLOW WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 36.
HOWEVER, THIS SOUNDING SHOWS INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW ABOVE 600MB,
WHICH SUGGESTS A WEAKENING NER AND BUILDING STR AS FORECAST BY THE
MODELS. THE TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH, WHICH IS CURRENTLY AIDING
OUTFLOW, IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH WEAK EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW AND
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PERSISTING OVER THE SYSTEM THROUGH
TAU 36. THIS WILL LIMIT INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU
48, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE LEADING TO A
PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION / CONSOLIDATION. DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AFTER TAU 36 WITH SOLUTIONS ACCELERATING TD 27W WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR ASSUMES STEERING
CONTROL.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 27W IS FORECAST TO RE-CURVE
POLEWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE STR. IMPROVED POLEWARD VENTILATION
WILL ALLOW TD 27W TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BY
TAU 120. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
AFTER TAU 120, STRONG ZONAL WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER
JAPAN MAKING LANDFALL OVER MAINLAND JAPAN EXTREMELY UNLIKELY.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W

#34 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 22, 2017 5:46 am

Image

Southward track continues.

WDPN33 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN)
WARNING NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 342
NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS WELL DEFINED AND FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION, AND
FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE WEST. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON AGENCY CURRENT
INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) AND ALSO SUPPORTED BY
A 220018Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A SOLID REGION OF 30 KNOT
WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG
EASTERLIES FROM THE NORTHEAST RIDGE INDUCING A VERY UNFAVORABLE
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE DIFFLUENCE. SSTS IN THE
REGION ARE ALSO VERY FAVORABLE NEAR 30 CELSIUS, HOWEVER DUE TO THE
HOSTILE UPPER-LVEL CONDITIONS TD 27W HAS NOT SHOWN SIGNS OF FURTHER
CONSOLIDATION. CURRENTLY TD 27W IS TRACKING ERRATICALLY WITHIN A
COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT POSITIONED BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THE COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE NER WEAKENS RETREATING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
THE STR STRENGTHENS DRIVING TD 27W TO THE NORTHWEST. RECENT UPPER
AIR SOUNDINGS FROM GUAM SHOW THE MID-TO LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFTING TO
A EASTERLY PATTERN, INDICATING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER, THE STRONG STR WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
FAIRLY STRONG AND CONSEQUENTLY HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO WEAK
TROPICAL STORM BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 27W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
NORTHWESTWARD SHIFTING TO A POLEWARD TRACK AROUND TAU 96. AS OUTFLOW
IMPROVES TD 27W WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE SYSTEM ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHWEST SOMETIME IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, HOWEVER THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT POSITION AND TIMING OF THE TURN.
FURTHERMORE, THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED TRACK LARGELY
DEPENDENT ON THE SCALE OF INTENSIFICATION WHICH MODELS ARE MIXED.
DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W

#35 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 22, 2017 5:52 am

Completely composed LLC seen here.

Image
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W

#36 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 22, 2017 6:10 am

GFS getting more bullish on future Saola.

Direct hits Guam.

Image

Peaks it at 925 mb and misses Tokyo but barely.

Image
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W

#37 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 22, 2017 6:12 am

NAVGEM at peak almost similiar to GFS.

Image

EURO brings it further west. The weakest out of the 3.

Image

Looks like the track will be adjusted as all three brings this to Guam.
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W

#38 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 22, 2017 6:23 am

HWRF very robust on this.

Image
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W

#39 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Oct 22, 2017 6:14 pm

This sleeper is lookin real good today, lots of moisture surrounding it now.

Image

JMA might name this within 24 hrs.

Image
TD a

TD
Issued at 22:10 UTC, 22 October 2017
<Analysis at 21 UTC, 22 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N9°00' (9.0°)
E147°40' (147.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 23 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°25' (12.4°)
E145°30' (145.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W

#40 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 22, 2017 7:14 pm

000
WTPQ33 PGUM 222158
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP272017
800 AM ChST Mon Oct 23 2017

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W MOVING WESTWARD...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
---------------------------
Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Guam and Rota and Coastal
Waters.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------------
Tropical Storm Watch now in effect for Guam and Rota and Coastal
Waters.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------
Location...9.3N 147.4E

About 340 miles south-southeast of Guam
About 365 miles south-southeast of Rota
About 410 miles south-southeast of Tinian
About 415 miles south-southeast of Saipan
About 135 miles north of Satawal
About 160 miles west-northwest of Ulul
About 190 miles northwest of Puluwat
About 200 miles east-northeast of Farulep
About 325 miles west of Fananu
About 330 miles west-northwest of Chuuk

Maximum sustained winds...35 mph
Present movement...west...270 degrees at 8 mph.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM ChST...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression 27W
was located near latitude 9.3 degrees North and longitude 147.4
degrees East...moving west at 8 mph. Tropical Depression 27W is
expected to turn toward the west-northwest today and then northwest
through Tuesday with an increase in forward speed. This forecast
track still anticipates Tropical Depression 27W passing south of
Guam on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 35 mph. Tropical Depression 27W is
not expected to significantly intensify today, but some gradual
intensification is expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

There is still much uncertainty on how close 27W will pass to Guam
or locations in Chuuk State so this system should still be closely
watched for any changes in motion or intensity.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 1100 AM this morning and the next scheduled advisory will
be issued at 200 PM this afternoon.

$$

Simpson
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