Disturbed weather in western Caribbean (Is Invest 93L)

[blp]

Everyone's favorite GEFS run, the Happy Hour version, has 4 members of 20 form a TS+
that passes SE of S FL 10/29-30. But it also has 3 TCs that hit S FL/Keys 10/31-11/1. Perhaps this suggests that a slower moving TC would ultimately be a greater threat to S FL? Any opinions?

Hmmm yeah saw that, slower might allow enough ridging to build back to get this close to South Florida. NAVGEM looks to have shifted more west and is slower. Looks to be moving ENE at the end:

[img]https://s1.postimg.org/5graj6xffj/nvg10.sfc10m.180.go_mex.gif[/]

I agree with both of you.

I see more ensembles members in 18z staying longer in the Carribean. They delay in IMO would allow a block of the ENE motion and direct to a more N or NNE which could bring Florida into play

Shell Mound made an excellent post in Global Model Thread which I am quoting below:

If the Euro track moves west, will So Fl be in line for a hit by the storm?

One thing that concerns me is that the 12Z EPS (ensemble) mean has trended toward a more amplified mid- to upper-level pattern in the long range range, that is, days six and beyond. The latest mean shows a more pronounced trend toward a negative NAO, with attendant height rises over Greenland. This strengthens the western-Atlantic (subtropical) high at the mid levels and also deepens the trough over the north-central United States. Additionally, this process induces greater divergence over the western Caribbean and eastern Gulf of Mexico, allowing a strong jet-exit outflow channel to develop. The trend toward a negatively tilted, northwest-to-southeast, longwave trough axis over central North America means the mid-level flow (wind vectoring) becomes more meridional, south-to-north, rather than zonal, west-to-east. This amplification would allow not only more conducive conditions over the Caribbean, but also produce a track farther northwest, and also enable the potential system to strengthen or maintain its intensity longer even as it curves into the westerlies. In other words, the setup becomes more of a Wilma- (2005) than a Michelle-type one. Conditions are going to be conducive to strengthening, so the EPS and the operational ECMWF are likely underestimating the intensity of this potential system.

[Alyono]

wouldn't be surprised to see this doodle in the Caribbean for more than a week

[blp]

wouldn't be surprised to see this doodle in the Caribbean for more than a week

You have mentioned that several times before and it had stayed stuck in my head. Maybe the models are to fast with the exit. So you are leaning toward the high being more amplified to block the exit out?

[gatorcane]

The 12Z JMA suggests doodling as the trough looks to miss it:

[Frank2]

Late season systems can do anything:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_Atla ... cane_Henri

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Ukmet is not quite done with cane's for the season either.

[Blown Away]

18z Navgem & CMC shifted W and CMC brushes SFL...

[WeatherEmperor]

18z Navgem & CMC shifted W and CMC brushes SFL...

0z Canadian shifts east and no longer brushes Florida




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[Alyono]

WTNT82 EGRR 230405

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 23.10.2017

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 15.8N 82.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.10.2017 96 15.8N 82.0W 1002 39
1200UTC 27.10.2017 108 17.0N 80.6W 999 45
0000UTC 28.10.2017 120 20.2N 79.2W 995 41
1200UTC 28.10.2017 132 23.4N 77.6W 987 56
0000UTC 29.10.2017 144 27.3N 74.8W 972 70

[LarryWx]

So, the Ukmet has about the same track E of FL for the 3rd run in a row.

[AJC3]

Folks, let's try and avoid making definitive statements or asking about outcomes being set in stone 5-6 days out.

Yes, certain outcomes are often decidedly more likely, especially this time of year. However, exchanges have often gotten testy in the past when the inherent uncertainty, no matter how small, isn't considered. Thanks.

[joey]

euro flip again

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _atl_7.png

[Steve H.]

Quote out of Melbourne Florida NWS Monday morning:


Thursday-Sunday...aloft upper troughing continues to push eastward
away from the peninsula as brief shortwave ridging moves across the
state and northerly winds quickly back to southwesterly ahead of an
approaching upper trough to the west for Fri into the weekend. At
the surface weak high pressure builds across the region on Thu, then
off of the Atlantic Seaboard late Fri into Sat with the approach of
a tropical low from the south. Presently, the European model (ecmwf) lifts this
feature into the Florida Straits by late Sat, northeast across Southeast
Florida Sat night, and further northeastward away from the peninsula on
sun, swept away by an approaching front/upper trough combo. Model
consistence and timing of surface/upper features will play a key
role going forward with exact track/strength of this system.

[toad strangler]

6z GFS shows virtually nothing.

[weathaguyry]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 231131
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western
Caribbean Sea during the next few days. Slow development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves northwestward to
northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Steve H.]

Thanks for posting. I see orange on the map now.....or is that yellow?

[tolakram]

Orange, 40% in 5 days.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western
Caribbean Sea during the next few days. Slow development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves northwestward to
northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

[gatorcane]

More GFS ensembles hit Florida:

[jlauderdal]

Thanks for posting. I see orange on the map now.....or is that yellow?

mandarin alert

[wxman57]

Euro and GFS indicate very strong wind shear from Cuba north through FL and the Bahamas by Friday - ahead of a strong cold front. 60-80 kt WSW winds aloft across the central to southern FL Peninsula by Saturday morning (and increasing from there). Would be hard for anything other than a weak and highly-sheared storm to form or move into that area.