Disturbed weather in western Caribbean (Is Invest 93L)

[gatorcane]

Does anybody have the 12Z ECMWF ensembles? Looking at the TropicalTidbits plots, it appears many still heading into Southern Florida or near SE Florida and are west of the ECMWF OP:

[wxman57]

I can't understand why the GFS continues to develop the now Tropical Storm in the EPAC in 96hrs. It is not even a microcane anymore. Makes the model completely useless to figure out what will happen here with Carribean system.

you have been on this board a long time...its the gfs. expect odd solutions and even solutions that are impossible based on the setup...gfs could be correct in this case, highly unlikely....checkout 57's shear post, unlikely this thing gets to florida as anything that would require preps other than an umbrella

Wilma was supposed to be battling shear from the approaching front also, instead the front help aid her outflow. I know model forecasts are better now then in 2005 but you never know.

The strong upper-level winds weren't over south Florida for Wilma, they were well to the northwest of Wilma.

[psyclone]

Winter look in the GOM with a cloud-clearing cold front - hurricane season is almost over...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

Yep. Dewpoints are plunging in the panhandle with a gusty northwest wind. Thundering here with prefrontal convection and another front is already on the docket for Sunday. I think Nate was Florida's October hurricane...it just got lost on the way. Let's hope so anyway..

[BYG Jacob]

If this just doodles around in the Caribbean and avoids the trough a hurricane is very likely, otherwise this gets torn apart by shear.

[BYG Jacob]

Looks like something is trying to spin up just off Nicaragua

[blp]

Does anybody have the 12Z ECMWF ensembles? Looking at the TropicalTidbits plots, it appears many still heading into Southern Florida or near SE Florida and are west of the ECMWF OP:

[img]https://s1.postimg.org/1cgdvgqt7j/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_Norm_watl_7.png[/]

See below. Check the difference in 24hrs. Sizable shift toward the west.

Current:


24hrs Ago:

[blp]

Looking at TT EPS ensembles for the 500mb anomaly for 120hrs the past few runs it looks like the trough is a little more delayed with each run and further SW. The timing and placement as always will be key. A slower and more SW orientation of the trough would tend to bring it further N and may keep it outside the bad shear longer.

[Frank2]

The models will continue to try to spin up something, but shear is the big factor...

[gatorcane]

Big shift west by the GFS though looks weak:

[TheStormExpert]

So are we still going to buy that random storm the GFS keeps insisting will occur in the E-PAC in 96hrs.?

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Usually when the the mjo is over a basin the upper-level shear levels decrease.

[blp]

:uarrow: So are we still going to buy that random storm the GFS keeps insisting will occur in the E-PAC in 96hrs.?

Main reason I am still keeping an eye on this. I dont trust the intensity modeling from GFS and Euro as they keep spinning up microcanes in the EPAC which I think is causing phantom interference with the Carribean system. The models that dont have it tend to have a stronger system. So lets see how it plays out.

[sunnyday]

Does anyone else hear the fat lady singing?

As always, this is only my opinion. Please see the NHC or NWS for accurate forecasts.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I think the miami nws has the fat lady singing:

By Saturday, and area of tropical moisture, as well as a weak low,
will move up from the south. This will help to increase chances of
convection once again for Saturday and possibly Saturday night.
Both the GFS and the European model (ecmwf) have a weak low moving northeast over
central Cuba, and then progressing over the Bahamas by Sunday
night. This is ahead of the next cold front, which models area
showing to push through by next Monday morning.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS ensembles shift west. Maybe not time to bring out the fat lady just yet:

[CyclonicFury]

NHC doesn't think the fat lady is singing yet. Up to 10/50!
000
ABNT20 KNHC 232328
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An elongated area of low pressure has formed near the northeastern
coast of Nicaragua. This broad disturbance is producing widespread
cloudiness and scattered thunderstorms over much of the northwestern
and southwestern Caribbean Sea, and the adjacent coastal areas of
northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras. Further development,
if any, should be slow to occur for the next couple of days due to
interaction with the high terrain of Central America. Thereafter,
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some
development to occur over the northwestern Caribbean Sea while the
system moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[WeatherEmperor]

18z NAVGEM shifts west and skirts South Florida




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[SFLcane]

Stacy bullish tonight on development up to 50%..

[gatorcane]

18z NAVGEM shifts west and skirts South Florida

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201710 ... 801a11.png


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Skirts the Keys also with near landfall. Seems there has been a west trend with some of the models and ensembles today.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS ensembles MSLP view: