WPAC: KIROGI - Dissipated

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WPAC: KIROGI - Dissipated

#1 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Tue Nov 14, 2017 8:52 pm

Low-latitude disturbance, E/SE of Mindanao...

90W INVEST 171114 1800 3.3N 135.4E WPAC 15 NA

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Last edited by Imran_doomhaMwx on Sun Nov 19, 2017 3:09 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#2 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Tue Nov 14, 2017 9:52 pm

Model guidance indicates that it will remain at LPA to Tropical Depression status as it approaches and traverses Mindanao and/or Visayas within the next 3 days, and with a shot of becoming a Tropical Storm over the South China Sea.

It may reach Southern/Central Vietnam 4-5 days from now, possibly close to the areas impacted by the recent TyphoonDamrey. While 90W may remain a weak system once it reaches Vietnam, additional rainfall to the areas that got copious rainfall amounts from Damrey will definitely be a big threat/problem.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#3 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 6:20 am

90W INVEST 171115 0600 3.4N 134.0E WPAC 15 1010

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#4 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 6:27 am

A bit stronger from the EURO.

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GFS peak at 976 mb. Vietnam all over again.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#5 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 6:39 am

QUite impressive bandings...

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:36 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.0N 132.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.0N 128.8E, APPROXIMATELY 350
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD BUT
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 151731Z SSMI
85GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE WEST QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS MINDANAO ISLAND. LAND INTERATION WILL PREVENT SUBSTANTIAL
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER WATER WEST OF MINDANAO
AFTER 36 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#7 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Thu Nov 16, 2017 5:36 am

Now centered near/over Mindanao. It may become a Tropical Depression over the Sulu Sea tomorrow(Friday PhT), before it crosses Palawan island and emerges into the South China Sea—where it has a shot of becoming a Tropical Storm.

90W INVEST 171116 0600 7.1N 126.0E WPAC 15 1007

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Those in Southern and Central Vietnam should closely keep an eye on this one. While there is a chance of it remaining a weak system once it reaches Vietnam, it is still a big concern as it may affect/threaten areas that were heavily impacted by the recent Typhoon Damrey.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#8 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu Nov 16, 2017 6:51 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 NOV 2017 Time : 231000 UTC
Lat : 7:13:34 N Lon : 121:17:17 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.4 / 997.6mb/ 34.0kt


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http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/RSMC/

Tropical Depression 30Y_18
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#9 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 16, 2017 7:22 pm

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WTPN21 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.4N 122.7E TO 10.2N 113.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 161800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.7N 121.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.7N 121.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 120.8E, APPROXIMATELY
175NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WIDESPREAD AREA OF
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT IS BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE WEST OF
MINDANAO. A 161800Z HIMAWARI INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS
INCREASING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MODERATE AMOUNT OF
WIND SHEAR (5-20 KNOTS). EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS FAVORABLE. POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IS MODERATELY FAVORABLE BUT WILL HAVE LIMITED INTERACTION
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM, WHICH WILL LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT 27-28 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL
NUMERICAL MODELS FORECAST 90W TO PROPAGATE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE SULU SEA AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. 90W
WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN WATER WITH
FAVORABLE TO MODERATE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
172100Z.
//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: JMA Tropical Depression

#10 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu Nov 16, 2017 7:44 pm

TD
Issued at 21:55 UTC, 16 November 2017

<Analysis at 21 UTC, 16 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N8°05' (8.1°)
E121°40' (121.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1006 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 09 UTC, 17 November>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N8°40' (8.7°)
E118°20' (118.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 21 UTC, 17 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°30' (9.5°)
E114°35' (114.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 35 km/h (18 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 20

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#11 Postby Alyono » Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:22 pm

Tcs that hit south of Ho Chi Minh are typically very deadly. Linda in 1997 was a strong TS and it killed more than 3,000. May be the most vulnerable area in the entire WPAC aside from a Haiphong direct hit
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Re: WPAC: JMA Tropical Depression

#12 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu Nov 16, 2017 11:33 pm

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GFS modelling a possible cat1 on the run.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#13 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 16, 2017 11:45 pm

TPPN10 PGTW 170301

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W (SE OF PUERTO PRINCESA)

B. 17/0230Z

C. 8.86N

D. 120.70E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT NOT AVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LEMBKE

TXPQ26 KNES 170318
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)

B. 17/0230Z

C. 9.2N

D. 120.6E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=1.5 BASED ON .3 CURVED BANDING YIELDS A DT OF
1.5. MET=1.0 AND PT=1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIM
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Re: WPAC: JMA Tropical Depression

#14 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Fri Nov 17, 2017 1:09 am

Marine GPS wind data is at 35kts and a lone 40k in the field. They do use realtime ships obs data from within the area.

Image



UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm
RSMC Initialized


Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 NOV 2017 Time : 054000 UTC
Lat : 8:27:08 N Lon : 119:25:25 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 / 997.0mb/ 35.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.5 2.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -9.2C Cloud Region Temp : -50.4C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.54 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 27.0 degrees



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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#15 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Nov 17, 2017 5:14 am

What is that?
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#16 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Fri Nov 17, 2017 5:50 am

Looks like it's over the South China Sea now, just off the west coast of Palawan. Recent satellite and microwave images indicate an organizing and strengthening system, and there is a good chance that JTWC will also upgrade it into a TC @ 12Z.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#17 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Nov 17, 2017 5:58 am

Here are some ground obs from select location in Palawan as of 6PM local time

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Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#18 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Fri Nov 17, 2017 6:07 am

Alyono wrote:Tcs that hit south of Ho Chi Minh are typically very deadly. Linda in 1997 was a strong TS and it killed more than 3,000. May be the most vulnerable area in the entire WPAC aside from a Haiphong direct hit

Models have landfall north of Ho Chi Minh for this one, even ECMWF which was previously more south has trended higher.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#19 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 17, 2017 7:40 am

31W is here!

31W 171117 0600 9.2N 119.4E WPAC 20 1006
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 31W

#20 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:59 am

JTWC warning #1 for TD 31W

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