2017 WPAC Season

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euro6208
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#621 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 30, 2017 9:35 am

This MJO and Kelvin means business. GFS has a somewhat large monsoon gyre like system in December? It has 2 systems affecting the Marianas.

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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#622 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 30, 2017 8:10 pm

18Z GFS continues with a Guam Typhoon...

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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#623 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 30, 2017 8:13 pm

A surface trough embedded within moderate to fresh trade winds north
of a near-equatorial trough is going to generate period showers and
a few thunderstorms near Yap today, Koror tonight and Saturday. As
the near-equatorial trough begins to lift northward on Sunday,
converging surface winds near the trough axis will increase shower
activity near both locations. Things should become wetter early next
week as the twin circulations currently southwest of Chuuk and
southwest of Pohnpei approach from the southeast. There is a chance
these circulations will merge into one and become better organized
when arriving at far western Micronesia next week. If so, gusty winds
and choppy seas are possible.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#624 Postby euro6208 » Fri Dec 01, 2017 7:42 am

NAVGEM now on board with development.

00Z

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06Z

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CMC

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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#625 Postby euro6208 » Fri Dec 01, 2017 7:58 am

While EURO continues to be quiet, the GFS has multiple lows in a large monsoonal like system. Eventually the eastern most wins out. You can see what is left of 94W near Yap and Palau almost 10 days after formation.

94W THREAD

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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#626 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Dec 02, 2017 7:34 am

Faguzzi, fugazzi, it's a whazzie, it's a whoozie.. it's a.. fairy dust. It doesn't exist. It's never landed. It's no matter, it's not on the elemental chart. not real! LOL

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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#627 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Dec 02, 2017 10:18 am

Heh, that looks fun to track. Something tells me it's not going to verify though. :P
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#628 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Dec 03, 2017 6:04 am

I have my doubts about 94W, it's simply scrambled eggs! Interesting to see GFS and CMC insist on a strong typhoon in the mid-range to long-range with the GFS shifting, showing a pretty noticeable trend. Let's see if this verifies. My gut tells me something big could happen this month or early next year.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#629 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 03, 2017 6:37 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:I have my doubts about 94W, it's simply scrambled eggs! Interesting to see GFS and CMC insist on a strong typhoon in the mid-range to long-range with the GFS shifting, showing a pretty noticeable trend. Let's see if this verifies. My gut tells me something big could happen this month or early next year.


Viola! 94W dissipates and GFS caves in to EURO showing no development at all. Applause for EURO. Fail for GFS. :lol:
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#630 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 03, 2017 6:41 am

EURO for the first time shows the Guam system but keeps it weak.

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GFS continues to be robust with it. It had it peaking sub 900mb but still a cat 5 barreling through the Islands. We've seen this before.

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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#631 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Dec 03, 2017 8:23 pm

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GFS 18z run faster building ridge would spell problems maybe for PI.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#632 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Mon Dec 04, 2017 1:03 am

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170KTS @850mb. on the run.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#633 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Dec 04, 2017 4:05 am

ECMWF now with a 981 mb typhoon strength system at TAU 240 with it turning east while getting pulled by a trough though a ridge rapidly begins developing. Too early to jump into conclusions thus far
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#634 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 04, 2017 7:40 am

95W THREAD

Invest now up for Micronesia system.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#635 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 04, 2017 7:53 am

EURO and GFS has more possible TC's developing from the Malay Peninsula to southeast of Guam.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#636 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Dec 04, 2017 9:21 am

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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#637 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Mon Dec 04, 2017 9:50 pm

http://www.cma.gov.cn/en2014/news/News/ ... 57038.html
"On November 16, China's most advanced research vessel, named Ke Xue (Science), completed its 2017 scientific expedition in the western Pacific Ocean. To understand the formation and evolution of clouds in low latitude area of the western Pacific Ocean and get insights into their macro- and micro property, MOC conducted the cloud observation in the western Pacific Ocean with millimeter-wave cloud radar and all sky imager onboard Ke Xue. The meteorological group released four meteorological drifting buoys as a way of collecting marine weather data. During this scientific mission, Ke Xue went through three typhoons, namely, Super Typhoon Lan, Typhoon Saola and Haikui."

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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#638 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Dec 07, 2017 12:21 pm

Image

That area south of Guam is starting to flare once again.
96W?
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#639 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:33 am

GFS and ECMWF still show a weak system intensifying over the South China Sea instead
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#640 Postby euro6208 » Fri Dec 08, 2017 1:02 am

:lol: Back to back strong phantom systems but nothing materializes.
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