Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#261 Postby Alyono » Mon Dec 11, 2017 3:57 pm

SFMR had 91 kts at landfall for Isabel. 95 kts may be a better approximation of the landfall winds
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#262 Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Dec 11, 2017 10:54 pm

1900hurricane wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
I'd need to see other images, but I would set it at 125 kt right there. That would EASILY be the strongest storm so far east - I'm not aware of any storms that strong even east of 40W, forget 30W. That should also be a wakeup call for Cape Verde knowing that a cat 4 storm could occur so close to them...

What site has those old satellites? I'm curious about other older storms.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/maps/gridsat/
https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/satellite/hursat/

Yep, that's exactly where I acquired those images.


I like looking past satellite images of hurricanes and other rain events.

Hurricane Isabel in 2003 looked very impressive on satellite. I even thought 145 knots was a bit on the low side. 160 knots sounds about right.
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#263 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:09 pm

Given its location way out in the Central Atlantic and the lowest pressure measured by recon, Isabel likely had windspeed higher than Irma at peak intensity.
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#264 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Dec 12, 2017 8:26 pm

It's possible, but I don't think I would have enough confidence to go that high without either recon data or a really high SATCON estimate, which Isabel '03 unfortunately predates. I'd probably set peak intensity at 18Z September 11th to 155 kt/910 mb or so. Aside from the official peak intensity, that's also higher than the Dvorak Technique estimates (155 kt is a verbatim T7.5 intensity estimate), and the windspeed is a little higher than KZC would estimate for that pressure, but neither is exceptionally so like observed with Irma '17. I'm certainly open to revising this estimate, but I think we need to know more about what makes the most intense tropical cyclones do what they do before I'm comfortable doing so. For what it's worth though, Isabel 03's and Irma 17's SSMI microwave presentations did look similarly intense near peak intensity, at least to my eyes. Both of the passes below were taken by the same satellite (DMSP F-15) on the same frequency (85 GHz) to try to eliminate as many variables as possible.

Image

Image
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#265 Postby NotoSans » Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:05 am

NotoSans wrote:JMA has actually been conducting reanalysis on Typhoon Haiyan using Doppler radar data. The related documents are given below. It is said in the second document that the paper regarding the reanalysis will be submitted by the end of 2017, but as far as I know the paper has yet to be published.

https://confit.atlas.jp/guide/event-img ... df?type=in
http://www.typhooncommittee.org/49th/Do ... ionJMA.pdf


The paper has been released early online on Monthly Weather Review. Inner core structure is also discussed in the paper.
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10. ... -17-0120.1
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#266 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:52 pm

Heh, so pressure estimates of 860 mb and 906 mb have been derived for Haiyan '13. Just your typical 46 mb estimation range...
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#267 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:00 pm

1900hurricane wrote:Heh, so pressure estimates of 860 mb and 906 mb have been derived for Haiyan '13. Just your typical 46 mb estimation range...


The real pressure was probably somewhere in the middle. Using the Schloemer equation from data provided by iCyclone and other storm chasers gave me a Leyte landfall estimate of 897 mb.
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#268 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:35 pm

As I mentioned on the previous page, I've begun to do some reanalysis work on Pacific typhoons as a personal project. Today, I posted an introduction to my reanalysis work on my blog. It is just an introduction, meaning there is no actual reanalysis done in this particular entry, but it does go into more detail on the why and how this reanalysis is being conducted. My next several entries will be dedicated to the topic of reanalysis, with a few entries over the next week or two about the 1979 Typhoon Season (since that is the only season I have completed at this time) and more likely to come after that. If anyone is curious, feel free to read!

Reanalyzing Pacific Typhoon Seasons: An Introduction

*EDIT: I now have my post on the 1979 Pacific Typhoon Season reanalysis up.

Reanalyzing Pacific Typhoon Seasons: 1979
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#269 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:49 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:From what I can tell, in the Dvorak satellite era, storms that reached cat 4 or 5 without Recon at an Atlantic peak (relative or absolute) were:

* 1981 Harvey
* 1988 Helene
* 1991 Claudette
* 1995 Felix
* 1996 Edouard
* 1999 Cindy
* 1999 Gert
* 2000 Isaac
* 2003 Isabel
* 2004 Karl
* 2008 Ike
* 2010 Igor
* 2010 Julia
* 2011 Katia
* 2011 Ophelia

Isabel is the only storm in this era known to have reached cat 5 without Recon in the Atlantic.

Revisiting this, after looking at images of these systems from HURSAT and NRL, I think the strongest of this group aside from Isabel is probably Edouard '96. Instantaneous DTs did reach 7.0 around 06Z, August 25th, which is when the NHC estimated the overall peak intensity of 125 kt/933 mb.

Image

I'd say the darkhorse strong one is Claudette '91, a system that featured a white CDO shade and a pinhole eye.

Image

Image
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#270 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Jan 14, 2018 1:13 am

1900hurricane wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:From what I can tell, in the Dvorak satellite era, storms that reached cat 4 or 5 without Recon at an Atlantic peak (relative or absolute) were:

* 1981 Harvey
* 1988 Helene
* 1991 Claudette
* 1995 Felix
* 1996 Edouard
* 1999 Cindy
* 1999 Gert
* 2000 Isaac
* 2003 Isabel
* 2004 Karl
* 2008 Ike
* 2010 Igor
* 2010 Julia
* 2011 Katia
* 2011 Ophelia

Isabel is the only storm in this era known to have reached cat 5 without Recon in the Atlantic.

Revisiting this, after looking at images of these systems from HURSAT and NRL, I think the strongest of this group aside from Isabel is probably Edouard '96. Instantaneous DTs did reach 7.0 around 06Z, August 25th, which is when the NHC estimated the overall peak intensity of 125 kt/933 mb.

Image

I'd say the darkhorse strong one is Claudette '91, a system that featured a white CDO shade and a pinhole eye.

Image

Image


I've always felt Edouard 1996 was stronger than estimated pre-Recon as well. Recon found 125 kt winds on its first flight the next day, but the Dvorak presentation had dropped quite a bit. Out of a bit of caution, I would go with 135 kt for the actual peak intensity. Claudette looks to be 125 kt.
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#271 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jan 14, 2018 5:08 am

I thought this thread (as indicated in the first few post) was to talk about record breaking storms (Patricia) rivalring the WPAC Super Typhoons but Atlantic hurricanes reaching Cat 4 or 5? Is there anything else to talk about except Wilma and Gilbert?
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#272 Postby Florida1118 » Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:06 am

euro6208 wrote:I thought this thread (as indicated in the first few post) was to talk about record breaking storms (Patricia) rivalring the WPAC Super Typhoons but Atlantic hurricanes reaching Cat 4 or 5? Is there anything else to talk about except Wilma and Gilbert?

This certainly wasn’t a “WPAC” centric thread from my interpretation. The title literally states “discussion of intense tropical cyclones”, not “discussion of intense tropical cyclones only if you compare to the great and all powerful WPAC”. Not everything needs to be a “WPAC vs” thread.
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#273 Postby psyclone » Sun Jan 14, 2018 2:15 pm

euro6208 wrote:I thought this thread (as indicated in the first few post) was to talk about record breaking storms (Patricia) rivalring the WPAC Super Typhoons but Atlantic hurricanes reaching Cat 4 or 5? Is there anything else to talk about except Wilma and Gilbert?


That's not at all what it said. read it again. One thing it did say is...
be respectful of differing opinions...
the "my basin can beat up your basin" posts are non productive, tiresome and frankly played
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#274 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:43 pm

I've been doing some more WPac reanalysis recently. I still have quite a few storms to get to in my 1977-1987 period (the majority of them in fact), but I have managed to knock out several of the significant ones. Here's how some of them stack up, with both my reanalyzed LMIs and the current best track values in brackets.

Rita '78: 185 kt (two separate peaks!) [150 kt]
Tip '79: 175 kt [165 kt]
Forrest '83: 175 kt [150 kt]
Abby '83: 170 kt [145 kt]
Judy '79: 165 kt [135 kt]
Vera '79: 160 kt [140 kt]
Hope '79: 155 kt [130 kt]
Marge '83: 155 kt [145 kt]
Owen '79: 140 kt [110 kt]
Ellen '83: 140 kt [125 kt]
Alice '79: 135 kt [110 kt]
Wayne '83: 135 kt [135 kt]
Sarah '79: 130 kt [110 kt]

As you can see, most of the storms are from either 1979 or 1983. That's because those are where I have focused my reanalysis efforts first (I did Rita '78 as a one-off initially). There are still many big storms I haven't gotten to (Vanessa '84, Dot '85, Betty '87, etc). As can be seen though, lots of intensities are going up from the largely Atkinson-Holliday derived values in best track.
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#275 Postby tolakram » Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:08 pm

euro6208 wrote:I thought this thread (as indicated in the first few post) was to talk about record breaking storms (Patricia) rivalring the WPAC Super Typhoons but Atlantic hurricanes reaching Cat 4 or 5? Is there anything else to talk about except Wilma and Gilbert?


No, you are wrong. This thread is as titled. A discussion of intense tropical cyclones.
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#276 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Jan 23, 2018 10:07 am

1900hurricane wrote:I've been doing some more WPac reanalysis recently. I still have quite a few storms to get to in my 1977-1987 period (the majority of them in fact), but I have managed to knock out several of the significant ones. Here's how some of them stack up, with both my reanalyzed LMIs and the current best track values in brackets.

Rita '78: 185 kt (two separate peaks!) [150 kt]
Tip '79: 175 kt [165 kt]
Forrest '83: 175 kt [150 kt]
Abby '83: 170 kt [145 kt]
Judy '79: 165 kt [135 kt]
Vera '79: 160 kt [140 kt]
Hope '79: 155 kt [130 kt]
Marge '83: 155 kt [145 kt]
Owen '79: 140 kt [110 kt]
Ellen '83: 140 kt [125 kt]
Alice '79: 135 kt [110 kt]
Wayne '83: 135 kt [135 kt]
Sarah '79: 130 kt [110 kt]

As you can see, most of the storms are from either 1979 or 1983. That's because those are where I have focused my reanalysis efforts first (I did Rita '78 as a one-off initially). There are still many big storms I haven't gotten to (Vanessa '84, Dot '85, Betty '87, etc). As can be seen though, lots of intensities are going up from the largely Atkinson-Holliday derived values in best track.

I think the cumulative lesson to be taken from this entire thread is that the evolving science fully illustrates a) the weakness of purely conventional satellite estimates; b) the importance of using other quantifiers (background/environmental pressures, RMW, intensity trends, eye temperature, upper-air temperature, dropsonde profiles and SFMR vs. simply flight-level winds, pressure-wind relationships, etc.); and c) how important recon is, but also how it, like satellite, can be misleading, both on the high and low ends of intensity estimates, if a holistic approach is not taken in respect to estimation of global TC intensities. Finally, all this serves to show just how little we know, or knew, but are now beginning to know more fully about global TC intensity trends. The emerging results so far, and experience with recent and past TC seasons in all basins, strongly suggest that, on the whole, the most intense storms are perhaps more likely to be underestimated than overestimated, especially while over water and far from in-situ, especially recon-based, monitoring. And the fact that TC intensities fluctuate quite rapidly mean that even fairly extensive recon coverage may not tell the whole story about just how strong a cyclone may have been between fixes. All this throws a monkey wrench into ultimate questions about long-term climatic trends, such as whether climate change is really causing an increase in the ratio/intensity of the strongest TCs.

Just my humble opinion, of course, and not a Pro Met's authoritative judgment.
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#277 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:55 am

This might be wishful thinking, but does anyone know how to fully decode the Typhoon Analogs TD 9635 dataset? This is what I have so far, but I know there is way more data in there. *EDIT: I do think I have it decoded.

117523197511191201320141033801033801034001034900800130020874-31160174190025031101380300 JUNE

1-2: Month of birth
3-4: Year
5-6: Storm Number
7-8: Entry Number
9-10: Year
11-12: Month
13-14: Day
15-16: Hour
17-20: Longitude
21-25: Latitude
26-28: Direction of movement 1 (degrees) [unspecified interval]
29-31: Speed of movement 1 (kt) [unspecified interval]
32-34: Direction of movement 2 (degrees) [unspecified interval]
35-37: Speed of movement 2 (kt) [unspecified interval]
38-40: Direction of movement 3 (degrees) [unspecified interval]
41-43: Speed of movement 3 (kt) [unspecified interval]
44-46: Direction of movement 4 (degrees) [unspecified interval]
47-50: Speed of movement 4 (kt) [unspecified interval]
52-53: ROCI (degrees)
54-56: 12 h change in ROCI (degrees)
57-60: Pressure (mb)
61-63: 12 h pressure change
64-66: Best Track Vmax (kt)
67-69: Computed Vmax [unknown P/W relationship] (kt)
70-72: 700 mb height (dam)
73-75: latitude of 700 mb ridge (degrees)
76-79: height of 700 mb ridge (dam)
80-84: longitude of 700 mb trough (degrees)
85-87: height of 700 mb trough (dam)

96-- : Name
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#278 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:52 pm

While looking back at some satellite imagery from Maria '17, I noticed an interesting feature around the time of peak intensity. Just before 00Z September 20th, there was a large and cold convective burst near the edge of the CDO (still image below, loop here). I'm not sure this phenomenon has a proper name, so for now, I'm going to call it lobing.

Image

Based on recon data, it appears like it might have coincided with a halt in intensification since the previously falling pressure evened out at 909 mb at the 2219Z pass and only varied by a millibar up and down from that number for the next six hours before rising. This lobing phenomenon could possibly be associated with structural changes. Lobing isn't exclusive to Maria '17 either. It appears it has occurred with a number of intense tropical cyclones across multiple basins. Some of the more clear examples are Nepartak '16, Patricia '15, Usagi '13, and Gilbert '88. Patricia '15 and Gilbert '88 each had recon near the time of lobing (near 18Z October 23rd for Patricia and 00Z September 14th for Gilbert), and both cases were similar to the Maria '17 data which showed no appreciable deepening from that time on. Patricia '15 actually began to weaken rapidly, although land interaction may have played a part in that case. Regardless, it may be a good sign to indicate whether an intense tropical cyclone has peaked.
Last edited by 1900hurricane on Mon Feb 19, 2018 10:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#279 Postby euro6208 » Fri Feb 16, 2018 6:24 am

1900hurricane wrote:This might be wishful thinking, but does anyone know how to fully decode the Typhoon Analogs TD 9635 dataset? This is what I have so far, but I know there is way more data in there. *EDIT: I do think I have it decoded.

117523197511191201320141033801033801034001034900800130020874-31160174190025031101380300 JUNE

1-2: Month of birth
3-4: Year
5-6: Storm Number
7-8: Entry Number
9-10: Year
11-12: Month
13-14: Day
15-16: Hour
17-20: Longitude
21-25: Latitude
26-28: Direction of movement 1 (degrees) [unspecified interval]
29-31: Speed of movement 1 (kt) [unspecified interval]
32-34: Direction of movement 2 (degrees) [unspecified interval]
35-37: Speed of movement 2 (kt) [unspecified interval]
38-40: Direction of movement 3 (degrees) [unspecified interval]
41-43: Speed of movement 3 (kt) [unspecified interval]
44-46: Direction of movement 4 (degrees) [unspecified interval]
47-50: Speed of movement 4 (kt) [unspecified interval]
52-53: ROCI (degrees)
54-56: 12 h change in ROCI (degrees)
57-60: Pressure (mb)
61-63: 12 h pressure change
64-66: Best Track Vmax (kt)
67-69: Computed Vmax [unknown P/W relationship] (kt)
70-72: 700 mb height (dam)
73-75: latitude of 700 mb ridge (degrees)
76-79: height of 700 mb ridge (dam)
80-84: longitude of 700 mb trough (degrees)
85-87: height of 700 mb trough (dam)

96-- : Name


How do you decode it?
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#280 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Feb 16, 2018 8:18 am

euro6208 wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:This might be wishful thinking, but does anyone know how to fully decode the Typhoon Analogs TD 9635 dataset? This is what I have so far, but I know there is way more data in there. *EDIT: I do think I have it decoded.

removed wall of text


How do you decode it?

For each line, the sequence of numbers represents some sort of information. For example with the line I have above, it is the 23rd storm of 1975 at November 19th 12Z. The storm has an analyzed pressure of 874 mb and a Vmax of 160 kt. That storm's name is June. That's just an example of all the information encoded in all those numbers, and I have the decoder a few posts up. However, when I ran a python script to decode all the information and put them in ATCF format, I learned that about half the dataset was missing a 0 in the first field when it was required. Luckily, my text editor can edit multiple lines at once, so I was able to fix my copy of the dataset, but it's something worth noting.
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