2017 WPAC Season

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#641 Postby euro6208 » Fri Dec 08, 2017 8:24 am

Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#642 Postby euro6208 » Fri Dec 08, 2017 8:50 am

GFS has a triple threat for Vietnam. One from a SCS system which has support from multiple models...The system south of Guam...And another originating near the dateline.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
doomhaMwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2398
Age: 25
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
Contact:

Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#643 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Dec 09, 2017 7:16 am

A LPA may form in the vicinity of Palau and Yap islands within the next 24/48hrs. The global models(GFS, ECMWF, CMC, NAVGEM) indicate the possibility of gradual organization and strengthening over the Philippine Sea this coming week. At the moment, uncertainty exists on the extent of development and with regards to its track.

Image
Image
Image
0 likes   
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#644 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 10, 2017 5:19 am

0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#645 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 11, 2017 6:56 am

When will this season ever end? 174 hours out...Past runs showed a Mindanao landfall.

Image

Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138881
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#646 Postby cycloneye » Tue Dec 12, 2017 2:15 pm

ECMWF have a strong Typhoon slamming the Mindanao/Visayas area while GFS recurve future 97W.

Image
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#647 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:34 am

Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#648 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:45 am

97W THREAD

Up for monster storm.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#649 Postby euro6208 » Sat Dec 16, 2017 6:13 am

Less than halfway through the end of the season, the models are still insisting on more development.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3613
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#650 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Dec 17, 2017 12:19 pm

If season ends now, 2017 would be Philippines' 1st typhoon free year since 2005 (10 min)
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#651 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 18, 2017 9:31 pm

GFS has another TS in just 198 hours...Impacts Palau and weakening before reaching the P.I.

Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#652 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 19, 2017 8:56 am

GFS takes the TS to Guam on Christmas day and Luzon. Development in 120 hours out.

Image
Image
Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#653 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 20, 2017 4:42 am

NWS starting to notice.

Little change in the forecast as the monsoon trough stays
well to the south of the Marianas. Couple of trade-wind surges
are visible upstream in the satellite imagery but are somewhat
difficult to time. Expect some brief periods of showers and
moderate to fresh winds with each arrival. Models have toned down
the development of the weak circulation south of Kosrae and just
north of the equator near 165E, but it still bares watching just
in case it gains more latitude than what is expected.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#654 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 20, 2017 9:11 am

GFS spins this up pretty quickly. Full blown TS in just 24 hours.

Image

Strikes Pohnpei.


Image

Christmas day passing south of Guam.


Image

Peak.

Image

Recurves.

Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#655 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 20, 2017 9:15 am

It's literally straggling the equator.

Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3613
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#656 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Dec 20, 2017 9:25 am

Looks like it's spinning a bit now - painfully close to equator.


Image
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#657 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Dec 20, 2017 10:08 pm

ASCAT does show a weak circulation embedded in a near equatorial trough. It's not suddenly becoming a tropical storm 24 hours from now like the GFS keeps insisting, but it might be invest worthy.

Image

Image
0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3405
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#658 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Dec 20, 2017 10:35 pm

Looks like the GFS is alone with this one, although the latest Euro run recognizes this area and develops it somehow into a disturbance. I don't know, GFS is telling me not to let my guard down but after all the sub-900s typhoon scare recently, I am not holding my breath.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3688
Age: 22
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#659 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Dec 21, 2017 12:10 am

And the GFS changes big time

Image
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#660 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 21, 2017 8:01 am

NWS discounting GFS for now.
Little change in the forecast as the Marianas are dominated by
moderate to fresh trade-wind flow in high pressure. A couple of
surges can be seen upstream, similar to today`s passage with the next
one pass through Friday night. GFS model suggest winds, especially
in the northern portion of our AOR...in the vicinity of Saipan and
Tinian may temporarily reach 25 knots which would result in a short
term small craft advisory for them. This will be more clear tomorrow
as to the timing and intensity of this event. Completely disregarded
the GFS run for the circulation southeast of Kosrae as it is the only
model we have that predicts any development...and if past record is
any indication...it `ain`t` going to happen.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: cainjamin, cycloneye, Dougiefresh and 49 guests