WPAC: BOLAVEN - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 01W

#41 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:02 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 JAN 2018 Time : 091000 UTC
Lat : 9:24:19 N Lon : 119:44:54 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 /1003.4mb/ 39.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.3 2.5 2.5

Center Temp : +12.6C Cloud Region Temp : -18.2C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.19^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 27.0 degrees

****************************************************
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 01W

#42 Postby NotoSans » Tue Jan 02, 2018 8:42 am

Good to see JMA finally issuing detailed prognostic reasoning.

WTPQ30 RJTD 021200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TD LOCATED AT 09.4N 119.4E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TD IS LOCATED AT 9.4N, 119.4E. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
ANIMATED MSI. POSITION ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH INFLUENCE OF WARM SST,
HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. BUT ITS
STRUCTURE HAS NOT BEEN FIRM, SO IT HAS KEPT INTENSITY IN PAST SIX
HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CB CLUSTERS
ARE SCATTERED AROUND CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE GOOD CLOUD
FEATURES OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS THE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND CSC.
3.MOTION FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE UNTIL FT24. THE JMA MOTION FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM, AND REFERRED TO OTHER NWP MODELS. THE JMA MOTION FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE EACH NUMERICAL MODEL IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF WARM
SST, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
UPGRADED TO TS INTENSITY BY FT24. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON GUIDANCES.
=
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 01W

#43 Postby Alyono » Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:11 am

NotoSans wrote:Good to see JMA finally issuing detailed prognostic reasoning.

WTPQ30 RJTD 021200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TD LOCATED AT 09.4N 119.4E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TD IS LOCATED AT 9.4N, 119.4E. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
ANIMATED MSI. POSITION ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH INFLUENCE OF WARM SST,
HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. BUT ITS
STRUCTURE HAS NOT BEEN FIRM, SO IT HAS KEPT INTENSITY IN PAST SIX
HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CB CLUSTERS
ARE SCATTERED AROUND CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE GOOD CLOUD
FEATURES OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS THE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND CSC.
3.MOTION FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE UNTIL FT24. THE JMA MOTION FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM, AND REFERRED TO OTHER NWP MODELS. THE JMA MOTION FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE EACH NUMERICAL MODEL IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF WARM
SST, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
UPGRADED TO TS INTENSITY BY FT24. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON GUIDANCES.
=



where are you seeing this. I cannot see it on their site
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 01W

#44 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:21 am

Appears to have already made landfall over Palawan. Convection associated with the depression is now mostly found west of Palawan though, and the system's center is partially exposed, most probably due to increasing easterly shear.

Image
Image
Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 01W

#45 Postby NotoSans » Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:56 am

Alyono wrote:where are you seeing this. I cannot see it on their site


http://www.wis-jma.go.jp/cms/warning/ca ... formation/

Numerical guidance (the JMA global model and typhoon ensemble systems), best track, and any other information related to tropical cyclone are also released through this website.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 01W

#46 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:21 pm

No longer expected to become a tropical storm.

WDPN31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING
NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 369 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DISORGANIZED, PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT. A 021821Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A DEFINED LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
BROAD DIFFLUENCE. CONSEQUENTLY, TD 01W HAS STRUGGLED TO ORGANIZE BUT
HAS MAINTAINED AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS, WHICH IS SUPPORTED
BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES, SHOWING
27 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS (10 MINUTE MEAN).
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD 01W IS TRACKING
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 01W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STR WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND SHOULD
MAINTAIN INTENSITY AT 30 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, TD 01W
WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY DUE TO PERSISTENT VWS AND COOLER SST AS IT
APPROACHES VIETNAM AND IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS INLAND. MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ECMWF
AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE, REMAINS VERY INCONSISTENT. OVERALL, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AFTER TAU 12. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO
FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION, WHICH PROVIDES THE MOST CONSISTENT AND
METEOROLOGICALLY SOUND SOLUTION.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Tropical Storm

#47 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 02, 2018 8:16 pm

JMA upgrades to TS BOLAVEN.

TS 1801 (Bolaven)
Issued at 01:10 UTC, 3 January 2018

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 3 January>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N10°40' (10.7°)
E116°05' (116.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 35 km/h (18 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 3 January>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°30' (10.5°)
E113°05' (113.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 4 January>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°35' (10.6°)
E111°05' (111.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 5 January>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N11°00' (11.0°)
E107°00' (107.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1008 hPa
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Tropical Storm

#48 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:57 pm

According to Digital-Typhoon, this is only the 5th tropical storm on record to form within the first 3 days of the year in the WPac, with the most recent one being TS "Sonamu" of 2013 (also formed on Jan 3).
http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typho ... 18/TC1801/
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Tropical Storm

#49 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:12 am

FXXT01 ADRM 030300
IDY26500

Bureau of Meteorology, Darwin RSMC

ACCESS_TC TC tracking for model run: 20180103 0000 UTC

Cyc Name Date Time Lat Long C.Pres Max Wind(kts)

BOLAVEN 20180103 0000 10.2 115.8 1002.5 39.4
BOLAVEN 20180103 0600 10.7 114.5 1000.8 37.0
BOLAVEN 20180103 1200 10.8 113.1 1002.9 35.0
BOLAVEN 20180103 1800 10.9 111.9 1003.5 32.6
BOLAVEN 20180104 0000 11.0 110.9 1005.1 33.0
BOLAVEN 20180104 0600 10.8 110.1 1004.8 32.6
BOLAVEN 20180104 1200 10.5 109.3 1005.8 25.7
BOLAVEN 20180104 1800 10.4 108.5 1007.3 21.6
BOLAVEN 20180105 0000 10.4 107.6 1008.4 18.7
BOLAVEN 20180105 0600 10.5 104.6 1006.3 14.9



Note: wind speed is max wind at 10m in kts

This information and associated graphic is available at :

http://www.bom.gov.au/reguser/by_user/b ... ack1.shtml
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Tropical Storm

#50 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:07 am

TD Bolaven.

WDPN31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (BOLAVEN)
WARNING NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 477
NM EAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF
DISORGANIZED, PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. A 030600Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED LLCC WITH CONVECTION LOCATED
TO THE NORTHWEST. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND BROAD DIFFLUENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT REMAINS
AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON AN RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS). SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD
01W IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN EAST-WEST
ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 01W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH
AND SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY AT 30 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 12. AFTER TAU
12, TD 01W WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY DUE TO PERSISTENT VWS AND COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS IT APPROACHES VIETNAM. TD 01W IS FORECAST TO
MAKE LANDFALL SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS INLAND. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 12 WITH INCREASED SPREADING IN
MODEL GUIDANCE BEYOND TAU 12. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AFTER
TAU 12.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Tropical Storm

#51 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:15 am

TXPQ29 KNES 030908
TCSWNP

A. 01W (BOLAVEN)

B. 03/0830Z

C. 11.4N

D. 114.2E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SHEAR PATTERN WITH CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES LESS
THAN 1.25 DEGREE FROM SMALL COLD OVERCAST YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. MET AND
PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER

TPPN10 PGTW 030854

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (BOLAVEN)

B. 03/0830Z

C. 11.19N

D. 114.30E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0/S0.0/21HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. .20 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDS 1.0 DT. MET 1.5. PT 1.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


DAVIS
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Tropical Storm

#52 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:29 am

Hearing reports of 2 deaths from this . Areas already devastated from last month's storms.

Bad start to the season.
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Tropical Storm

#53 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:53 pm

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (BOLAVEN)
WARNING NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM
EAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 031349Z 89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC.
THE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS WEAK BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC
FROM THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HEDGED ON THE UPPER END OF MUTLI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.0 TO T2.0 (25-30 KNOTS) FROM
PGTW AND RJTD RESPECTIVELY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (26-27 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS BROAD DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT WITH NO DEFINED OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TD 01W IS TRACKING WESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 01W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN
A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, EVENTUALLY MAKING LANDFALL NORTH
OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM AROUND TAU 12. AFTER LANDFALL, THE
SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS INLAND THROUGH THE RUGGED
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN VIETNAM. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 12 WITH A GENERALLY WESTERN TRACK. AFTER
TAU 12, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREADING IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH NAVGEM
BEING THE PRINCIPLE OUTLIER, PRODUCING A NORTHWESTERN TRACK
SOLUTION. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AFTER TAU 12.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Tropical Depression

#54 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:57 pm

Image
Image

TD
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 4 January 2018

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 4 January>

Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N12°00' (12.0°)
E111°00' (111.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1006 hPa
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Tropical Storm

#55 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:42 pm

Final warning issued.

WTPN31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 12.3N 111.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 111.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 12.5N 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 12.7N 107.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 12.3N 110.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 268 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TD 01W IS
DISSIPATING AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS SOUTHERN VIETNAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
NORTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON THE
PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.0 (25 KNOTS). TD 01W IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AFTER IT
MAKES LANDFALL NORTH OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT; THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 10 FEET.//
NNNN
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/


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