Texas Spring 2018

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South Texas Storms
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#41 Postby South Texas Storms » Sat Mar 03, 2018 11:34 am

Euro Ensemble is showing a large trough returning to the western U.S. in about 2 weeks. Hopefully that leads to a wet weather pattern across a large part of the state for the second half of the month.

That system in about 8-10 days (that bubba posted about above) also could bring some decent rain chances to parts of the state.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#42 Postby Ntxw » Sat Mar 03, 2018 12:34 pm

That system in 7-10 days has me intrigued for a number of reasons. Maybe a small shot at 1962 redux?

SOI is running positive since Feb 22nd with some lag effects accounting for the dry period here and to come. The second half of the month we may see more negative values, but not a given yet.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#43 Postby ravyrn » Sat Mar 03, 2018 1:30 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:This is the 4 year anniversary of a major sleet thunderstorm which dropped a couple inches of sleet in a two hour period along with lots of wind and lightning. I was living north of Lindale at the time. We had sleet drifts over 6 inches deep and lake effect snow the next morning with temps in the teens.


I saw you share this on your facebook page and I just came to the realization sometimes the world isn't that big after all, even here in Texas. I am pretty sure I work with your wife in Palestine lol

Also, what a drastically different start to March compared to four years ago!
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#44 Postby EnnisTx » Sat Mar 03, 2018 8:03 pm

Spring is here ! The dreaded crickets are singing their song!
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#45 Postby downsouthman1 » Sat Mar 03, 2018 9:39 pm

EnnisTx wrote:Spring is here ! The dreaded crickets are singing their song!

And the mockingbirds, which sing almost constantly day and night.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#46 Postby Brent » Sun Mar 04, 2018 2:12 am

The 0z GFS brings the first 90s in 4 short months I've seen on the DFW meteogram

Next Saturday GFS/Euro both into the 80s(short-lived though)
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#47 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Sun Mar 04, 2018 10:56 am

Looks like 2 freezes in the mid 20s are on deck for this next week up here.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#48 Postby Ntxw » Sun Mar 04, 2018 2:12 pm

In large part, compared to past two years the trees are not budding out as much. Frost threats this week and freezes outside the urban cores

There are no imminent signal for early spring heat waves yet.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#49 Postby Ntxw » Sun Mar 04, 2018 2:18 pm

SOI positive again and has been since Feb 22nd..with the lag we are probably entering a rather dry period. Doesn't mean no rain or storms but the Pacific linkage will wane for a time. Large scale multi inch rains coverage seems like a low risk first half of the month.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#50 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Mar 04, 2018 3:11 pm

I agree with the 1st half of the month being drier with the pattern shifting somewhat towards the early winter pattern. There are a number of systems coming down from the NW and it would only take one digging a bit more than currently modeled to pull some decent rain back towards I35. Also, that means that we will probably see the colder surface air bleed farther back west than currently modeled, so maybe a freeze or two at DFW. After that things could get active again with the Euro dropping a big system in the NW with a plume of deep moisture originating out in the Pacific south of Hawaii. That could be our next big rain event, depending on how things go.

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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#51 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Sun Mar 04, 2018 5:02 pm

Ntxw wrote:In large part, compared to past two years the trees are not budding out as much. Frost threats this week and freezes outside the urban cores

There are no imminent signal for early spring heat waves yet.

Up here none of the mesquites or pecan trees have even tried putting on leaf buds yet. Also, none of my livestock have even started losing winter coats yet. All of the coyotes I’ve come across within the week is still sporting a strong winter coat with no signs of shedding it yet.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#52 Postby JDawg512 » Sun Mar 04, 2018 6:39 pm

We are definitely in a quiet period. As I expected our area of Texas is on the very back edge with these Pacific fronts only bringing glancing thin lines or the lines build east of I-35. This next front is no exception. I guess the good news for many (though not for myself) is this year's SXSW and Rodeo will have pleasant weather for the most part. Of course pleasant weather in my eyes is rain and storms. Maybe the last half of my favorite month of the year will be more accomodating.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#53 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:34 pm

ravyrn wrote:
Ralph's Weather wrote:This is the 4 year anniversary of a major sleet thunderstorm which dropped a couple inches of sleet in a two hour period along with lots of wind and lightning. I was living north of Lindale at the time. We had sleet drifts over 6 inches deep and lake effect snow the next morning with temps in the teens.


I saw you share this on your facebook page and I just came to the realization sometimes the world isn't that big after all, even here in Texas. I am pretty sure I work with your wife in Palestine lol

Also, what a drastically different start to March compared to four years ago!

Awesome
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#54 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:20 am

Both the Euro EPS and GEFS are showing a return of the Western Trough in the long range and are now both starting to show individual members with big rain events as we move into the 2nd half of March (DFW speaking). Enjoy the next 7 - 10 days of coolish spring wx because it looks like a return to wet weather is just around the corner. Also, remember that as we move into the wetter spring months that it takes more to build positive anomalies and that even avg is pretty wet.

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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#55 Postby CaptinCrunch » Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:32 am

Well at least I got the backyard mowed Saturday, Sunday was pretty much rain free, only had a drop or 2 fall in southern Tarrant Co.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#56 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:41 am

Cold front is through DFW and that should make for an awesome afternoon/evening as drier air finally filters in.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#57 Postby Ntxw » Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:08 am

bubba hotep wrote:Cold front is through DFW and that should make for an awesome afternoon/evening as drier air finally filters in.


Really brisk out there and you can definitely feel the change
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#58 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:37 am

3 yrs ago today...

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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#59 Postby Ralph's Weather » Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:14 pm

Mid to upper 70s around here but the front and associated storms are on my doorstep. I am looking forwards to a few cooler days and some frosty mornings. Maybe we can sneak in a freeze this week.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#60 Postby Brent » Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:19 pm

bubba hotep wrote:3 yrs ago today...



Last time Dallas saw more than a dusting. My first winter here and I had unrealistic expectations after that :P
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