Texas Spring 2018

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Brent
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#181 Postby Brent » Fri Mar 16, 2018 5:55 pm

bubba hotep wrote:About 20% of the Euro EPS members and the control get some winter wx into Texas over the next two weeks :roll:


:roflmao:

That would be something i have to admit
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#182 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Mar 16, 2018 9:28 pm

The wet signal continues to grow

Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#183 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Mar 16, 2018 9:34 pm

Bring on the rain! It's been too dry over the past few weeks. We're getting to the time of the year where we really need to avoid dry spells to prevent drought from rapidly growing across the region.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#184 Postby Brent » Fri Mar 16, 2018 10:01 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:Bring on the rain! It's been too dry over the past few weeks. We're getting to the time of the year where we really need to avoid dry spells to prevent drought from rapidly growing across the region.


yeah I mean if it snows great but I'm not holding my breath... more want to see some good rain while we can get it
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#185 Postby weatherdude1108 » Fri Mar 16, 2018 10:18 pm

Left DC this morning. Had snow flurries and 36 degrees. Didn't get out of the 40s entire time up there since last Sunday.
:cold: :froze:

Got to Austin this afternoon, driving home car said 90 degrees, but noticed it was 40s to 60s all week here. Rain would be great. Getting dry.
:thermo:
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#186 Postby JDawg512 » Fri Mar 16, 2018 11:01 pm

I'm getting very grumpy about not getting any rain. The only thing keeping me sane is enjoying great music at SXSW. Been going every day and having a great time. I keep telling other locals it's pretty ridiculous to avoid the Downtown area like the plague because it's easier to get around more than it has in years past due to ride sharing services. I will say it's easier to access DT from the southside than it is if your coming in from the north but all in all It's not as bad as people make it out to be.

The only thing that would make it even better is if we had some nice downpours then I would be dancing in the streets.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#187 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Mar 16, 2018 11:54 pm

bubba hotep wrote:The wet signal continues to grow

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_10.png


That northeast quadrant of the state seems to be the sweet spot this year.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#188 Postby Brent » Sat Mar 17, 2018 1:16 am

The 0z GFS is very wet statewide... no cold air but lots of rain

meanwhile today a small 5% tornado area in the southern DFW metro
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#189 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Mar 17, 2018 7:13 am

Grabbing a change of clothes today in case there is something chaseable just to my north after my shift ends.

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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#190 Postby TarrantWx » Sat Mar 17, 2018 8:22 am

Brent wrote:The 0z GFS is very wet statewide... no cold air but lots of rain

meanwhile today a small 5% tornado area in the southern DFW metro


It looks like most of the short-range guidance is keeping the threat just south of DFW from Cleburne down to Waco. We'll have to keep a close eye on the warm front and TD return today. If the warm front can push further north than guidance indicates, DFW could get in on the action. If I were chasing today, I'd set up somewhere around Hillsboro and adjust from there.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#191 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Mar 17, 2018 10:01 am

Hmmm....

Image

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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#192 Postby Ntxw » Sat Mar 17, 2018 10:29 am

I couldn't get a reanalysis for 1937 (data is hard to find) but 1996 and 2010 are two relatively late March with wintry precip at DFW

500mb anomaly for those two years. -EPO/Western North America ridging is consistent theme

Image

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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#193 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Mar 17, 2018 10:51 am

The warm front appears to be drifting north and is along a line from just north of Cleburne up through southern Dallas County and then out NE towards Mt. Pleasant. Decent amount of sun getting through here in Collin County north of the warm front, surface warming might allow it to lift farther north than models have been showing.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#194 Postby Haris » Sat Mar 17, 2018 11:34 am

CFS, ensembles and euro op. Show a very wet period late month
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#195 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Mar 17, 2018 2:29 pm

Storms already firing out west, the warm front is still sagging across DFW but has surged north on the eastern side and appears to now be along the McKinney to Paris line. I wonder if storms will eventually track farther NE along that boundary?

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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#196 Postby somethingfunny » Sat Mar 17, 2018 2:56 pm

This is one of those types of setups that have produced some big surprises during March in the past. I would be paying close attention to the weather this evening.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#197 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Mar 17, 2018 3:00 pm

You can see the warm front lifting north with the warm sector clearing and expanding, SPC might have to expand the watch a bit to the north.

 https://twitter.com/whatisthisrds/status/975098805183016960


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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#198 Postby rwfromkansas » Sat Mar 17, 2018 3:35 pm

My dew point in north FW was skyrocketing and just took a very steep dive. Is the front moving south again? I was close to 60 and am now at 45 and rapidly dropping.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#199 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Mar 17, 2018 3:51 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:My dew point in north FW was skyrocketing and just took a very steep dive. Is the front moving south again? I was close to 60 and am now at 45 and rapidly dropping.


Look at that thin boundary oscillating across norther Ft. Worth very near 820, I would guess you are very close to that and it is mixing back and forth over your area?

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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#200 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Mar 17, 2018 3:52 pm

:uarrow: also, that southern most cell is nasty looking.
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