#310 Postby weatherdude1108 » Fri Mar 23, 2018 3:43 pm
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
324 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018
.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
Low level moisture will steadily increase tonight through Saturday
night beneath a capping inversion. This will lead to increasing
cloud cover and warmer overnight lows. Can`t rule out some patchy
drizzle or light rain Saturday morning along the southern Escarpment.
Winds on Saturday should be weaker than today as the pressure
gradient relaxes slightly.
&&
.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
A strong capping inversion will remain in place Sunday and Monday
across central and eastern areas of the CWA with continued warm and
mostly cloudy conditions as well as a slight chance of showers.
Farther west, the dry line Sunday afternoon and evening should become
active across West Central Texas along with a few storms associated
with orographic lift up the Serranias del Burro. Can`t rule out some
of these storms making into far northern and far western areas of the
CWA late Sunday where cap erodes. CAPE values are forecast to
increase to over 1500 J/kg along with deep layer shear values of 60
kts, and can`t rule out a storm or two becoming strong to severe,
with hail and damaging straight-line winds the primary threat. The
Day 3 Marginal Risk from SPC clips far northwest areas of the CWA. A
mid level shortwave in the southwest flow aloft will aid in convection
chances Monday Night into Tuesday and send the dry line further into
the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains Monday afternoon
and evening and into the Hill Country Tuesday. This should allow for
better chances for showers and storms near and northwest of a Del Rio
to Llano line late Monday as the cap erodes. Again instability and
shear values should be favorable for some strong to severe storms
northwest of this line and eventually extending eastward through
portions of the eastern Hill Country Tuesday.
Better chances for more widespread rainfall will come Tuesday night
through Wednesday night as a combination of a potent upper level low
to the west across northern Mexico opens and approaches, interacting
with a frontal boundary and deep moisture in place. There is still
significant uncertainty on frontal timing between GFS and ECMWF on
Wednesday as well as run to run consistency. 12Z GFS is now quicker
and farther south with the front Wednesday with post frontal
precipitation and cool temperatures over the region. However it does
appear showers and storms will be likely in general Tuesday night
through Wednesday night, possibly with more of a focus for pockets of
locally heavy rainfall if all ingredients come together, especially
with a slower frontal solution and the significantly anomalous high
precipitable waters forecast over the region.
Drier conditions and clearing skies are expected Thursday as the main
trough axis moves east. An upstream disturbance aloft is shown by
the GFS to move through West Central Texas and into North Central
Texas Thursday night into Friday, possibly clipping northern areas
of the CWA. ECMWF has this signal as well, but slightly faster. At
this time will keep the Thursday night and Friday dry due to
confidence.
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