2017 TCRs
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2017 TCRs
Tropical Storm GREG report is up.
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Re: 2017 TCRs
IMO Gert was quite likely to be a major at one point given its fast motion enhancing the winds, the low bias of Dvorak estimates at higher latitudes and AMSU estimates supporting an intensity of around 100 kt. But I would say 95 kt is a good compromise by the NHC as there was no conclusive evidence supporting an upgrade to major.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2017 TCRs
Hurricane MAX report is up. Formed from same wave that spawned Jose.
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Re: 2017 TCRs
All EPAC reports have been released and there are only four ATL reports left, namely Emily, Maria, Ophelia and Nate.
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- galaxy401
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Re: 2017 TCRs
Greg apparently is the same system that spawned that TD in the Atlantic as well. Max is slightly stronger in the report as well.
Glad the Pacific is finished now.
Glad the Pacific is finished now.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
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Re: 2017 TCRs
Regarding Gert, I agree. 95 kt seems most reasonable - the ADT may have run too high there (it supported up to 115 kt at one point) so the subjective numbers and AMSU provide better estimates. It's possible it was briefly a major, but without conclusive evidence we will never know.
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Re: 2017 TCRs
I know this probably isn't the best place for this thought, but it came up in the Katia --> Otis discussion.
One thing I would change in the operational plans is that if the low-level remnants of an Atlantic storm (whether an intact TC or not) cross into the EPAC (or vice versa) and redevelop, it would keep the originally assigned name from the other basin. Thoughts of that?
If those rules were applied in 2017, Otis would have still been named Katia.
One thing I would change in the operational plans is that if the low-level remnants of an Atlantic storm (whether an intact TC or not) cross into the EPAC (or vice versa) and redevelop, it would keep the originally assigned name from the other basin. Thoughts of that?
If those rules were applied in 2017, Otis would have still been named Katia.
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Re: 2017 TCRs
I agree completely. It's always been weird to me that a storm will degenerate back into a wave, and then if it establishes a circulation again, they just start issuing advisories again using the same name. If a storm does that and then doesn't redevelop a circulation again until the Epac, they rename it. I feel like they need to be a little more consistent with it. The requirements for using the same name seem much more lenient for storms that stay in the ATL.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2017 TCRs: Hurricane MARIA report is up
MARIA report is up.Landfall intensity in Puerto Rico's landfall was 135kts.
The hurricane weakened somewhat before its landfall
on that island due to the eyewall replacement, but also grew in size. Maria’s center crossed the
southeast coast of Puerto Rico near Yabucoa around 1015 UTC 20 September, and the
hurricane’s maximum winds at that time were near 135 kt, i.e., just below the threshold of category
5 intensity.
The landfall intensity of the cyclone in Puerto Rico, 135 kt, is based on an extrapolation of
the weakening trend noted in the aircraft data after the eyewall replacement began several hours
earlier. There were no believable Doppler-derived winds from the San Juan WSR-88D radar that
supported a higher intensity. It should be noted, however, that in Puerto Rico, winds of category
5 intensity were almost certainly felt at some elevated locations on the island.
The hurricane weakened somewhat before its landfall
on that island due to the eyewall replacement, but also grew in size. Maria’s center crossed the
southeast coast of Puerto Rico near Yabucoa around 1015 UTC 20 September, and the
hurricane’s maximum winds at that time were near 135 kt, i.e., just below the threshold of category
5 intensity.
The landfall intensity of the cyclone in Puerto Rico, 135 kt, is based on an extrapolation of
the weakening trend noted in the aircraft data after the eyewall replacement began several hours
earlier. There were no believable Doppler-derived winds from the San Juan WSR-88D radar that
supported a higher intensity. It should be noted, however, that in Puerto Rico, winds of category
5 intensity were almost certainly felt at some elevated locations on the island.
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Re: 2017 TCRs: Hurricane MARIA report is up
Emily also posted. Winds upped to 60mph. Rather impressive given she made landfall a few hours after forming
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2017 TCRs: Hurricane MARIA report is up / TS EMILY is also up
I can say that already this is in the news here and many dont believe it was a 4 at landfall. Maybe,they will do the upgrade in the next few years.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2017 TCRs: Hurricane MARIA report is up / TS EMILY is also up
IMO,regardless it was a cat 4 or cat 5, Puerto Rico was devastated and almost 7 months after it struck,we are still in the rebuilding phase with many thousands still without power and many homes still with damaged roofs with the blue tarps.
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- CyclonicFury
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Re: 2017 TCRs: Hurricane MARIA report is up / TS EMILY and Hurricane NATE are also up
The last remaining report left is Ophelia.
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
- cycloneye
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Re: 2017 TCRs: Hurricane MARIA report is up / TS EMILY and Hurricane NATE are also up
Hurricane NATE report is also up.Peak intensity was 80 kts.
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Re: 2017 TCRs: Tropical Storm EMILY / Hurricane MARIA / Hurricane NATE reports are up
The damage numbers from Maria are incredible.
$1.3B of damage on Dominica, population 75,000, is more than double the GDP of the country. It was as if an intense tornado crossed the island, while producing 20 inches of rain at the same time.
$90B of damage on an island of about 3.3 million people - more than 15 times the next costliest storm (adjusted for inflation). The same rate of damage in Florida would be over $700 billion.
$1.3B of damage on Dominica, population 75,000, is more than double the GDP of the country. It was as if an intense tornado crossed the island, while producing 20 inches of rain at the same time.
$90B of damage on an island of about 3.3 million people - more than 15 times the next costliest storm (adjusted for inflation). The same rate of damage in Florida would be over $700 billion.
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Re: 2017 TCRs: Tropical Storm EMILY / Hurricane MARIA / Hurricane NATE reports are up
CrazyC83 wrote:The damage numbers from Maria are incredible.
$1.3B of damage on Dominica, population 75,000, is more than double the GDP of the country. It was as if an intense tornado crossed the island, while producing 20 inches of rain at the same time.
$90B of damage on an island of about 3.3 million people - more than 15 times the next costliest storm (adjusted for inflation). The same rate of damage in Florida would be over $700 billion.
and t think, the eyewall missed San Juan
Imagine how destructive Irma would have been had it not made that last minute WNW turn, bringing the cat 5 eyewall into San Juan
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Re: 2017 TCRs: Hurricane MARIA report is up
BadLarry95 wrote:Emily also posted. Winds upped to 60mph. Rather impressive given she made landfall a few hours after forming
The report moves the genesis of Emily up 18 hours - actually formed on the afternoon before.
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- galaxy401
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Re: 2017 TCRs: Tropical Storm EMILY / Hurricane MARIA / Hurricane NATE reports are up
They kept Nate as a hurricane at landfall on the Gulf Coast. They probably suspect that hurricane force winds were at a remote part of a bayou with no recordings.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
- wxman57
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Re: 2017 TCRs: Hurricane MARIA report is up / TS EMILY is also up
cycloneye wrote:I can say that already this is in the news here and many don't believe it was a 4 at landfall. Maybe,they will do the upgrade in the next few years.
I don't know how one would be able to differentiate the damage from a 135kt cat 4 from a 140kt cat 5. Fortunately, Maria was weakening as it reached PR - not enough, though.
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Re: 2017 TCRs: Hurricane MARIA report is up / TS EMILY is also up
cycloneye wrote:IMO,regardless it was a cat 4 or cat 5, Puerto Rico was devastated and almost 7 months after it struck,we are still in the rebuilding phase with many thousands still without power and many homes still with damaged roofs with the blue tarps.
I'm actually surprised it was not dropped to 125 kts at landfall. The final aircraft did not find any evidence of a cat 5 hurricane. The hurricane appeared to weaken a little more after the final recon flight. No radar or surface observations justified close to cat 5
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