2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#41 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Apr 13, 2018 12:00 pm

But it is such a happy medium sized fella for however long it survives as it moves towards the bahamas.. lol

https://i.imgur.com/EPYhQ2p.mp4
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#42 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Apr 13, 2018 12:42 pm

If this was next month or June it could’ve easily been a candidate for a named TD or Storm. With the Tropical Atlantic looking iffy this season this and the Western Caribbean, and Gulf will likely be the places to look for development or delayed development from Tropical Waves.

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#43 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 16, 2018 3:00 pm

@MJVentrice
GFS flirting w/the idea for a tropical low pressure to attempt genesis off the Carolina coast next Tues; Our calibrated GEFS only show a 10% risk. The reason for this tweet is not to say hey, watch for genesis.. but is related to models seeing a shift away from Winter (finally!)


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 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/985920914272505858


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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#44 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Apr 17, 2018 11:42 am

The 12Z GFS has me really intrigued with regards to the potent shortwave forecast to move along the Gulf Coast region and later across North Florida on Monday. The GFS is depicting a 1007 mb Low to move very slowly over the Northeast Florida area, and then become nearly stationary just off the coast of Jacksonville by Tuesday. Looks like a ridge of High Pressure in the Northeast and New England region will block this.storm from moving out and away from the region for much of next week.

This could be quite a heavy rain threat for North Florida and South Georgia. Sunday into Monday.

An interesting feature, but we have seen sub-tropical systems form in this area off the Southeast U.S. coast in April and May in recent years. It is something to watch next week.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#45 Postby LarryWx » Tue Apr 17, 2018 12:00 pm

northjaxpro wrote:The 12Z GFS has me really intrigued with regards to the potent shortwave forecast to move along the Gulf Coast region and later across North Florida on Monday. The GFS is depicting a 1007 mb Low to move very slowly over the Northeast Florida area, and then become nearly stationary just off the coast of Jacksonville by Tuesday. Looks like a ridge of High Pressure in the Northeast and New England region will block this.storm from moving out and away from the region for much of next week.

This could be quite a heavy rain threat for North Florida and South Georgia. Sunday into Monday.

An interesting feature, but we have seen sub-tropical systems form in this area off the Southeast U.S. coast in April and May in recent years. It is something to watch next week.


I'm not worried about a strong storm wind wise and doubt this would be subtropical, but I also am looking at the heavy rain potential. Absent a flooding event, this would be quite beneficial for S SC and SE GA, which until a couple of days ago were in the largest area of D2 drought in the E half of the US. Will be watching closely!
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#46 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Apr 17, 2018 12:13 pm

:uarrow: It is the rain threat I am looking at mostly as I referenced in my earlier post. I don't think it will mature to be a big wind-maker either. However, precedent is there for the slight chance of it transitioning to a sub-tropical feature once it gets out near the Gulf Stream next week. The presence of that blocking ridge next week will definitely have this system meandering for days off the S.E. U.S. Atlantic coast.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#47 Postby LarryWx » Tue Apr 17, 2018 3:50 pm

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: It is the rain threat I am looking at mostly as I referenced in my earlier post. I don't think it will mature to be a big wind-maker either. However, precedent is there for the slight chance of it transitioning to a sub-tropical feature once it gets out near the Gulf Stream next week. The presence of that blocking ridge next week will definitely have this system meandering for days off the S.E. U.S. Atlantic coast.


Due to the slow movement as well as large size of the progged storm's significant precip. area, the 12Z EPS mean has a whopping 1.5-2.5" for all of GA/SC and most of FL/AL, N MS, and S NC between this Saturday and next Wednesday! Wow, that's a lot of rain for this time of year especially with it over such a large area.

Edit: I do think there's a small chance that areas like the W NC mountains could get significant snow from this due to this very far south track for this time of year.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#48 Postby LarryWx » Thu Apr 19, 2018 12:05 pm

The EPS is still quite wet for much of the SE. However, the axis of heaviest rains on the 12Z GFS has shifted a bit further north because the low's track on the GFS is now a little north of KSAV vs KJAX a couple of days ago. The GFS no longer has the center going offshore the SE US. This NW trend is typical of the GFS with extratropical low tracks as one gets closer to the actual event.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#49 Postby cycloneye » Sun Apr 22, 2018 5:30 am

Here we go again with the old GFS doing it's thing of showing phanthoms.Hopefully,the new GFS that comes out in 2019 eliminates these.

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#50 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:36 pm

12z Euro spins up what looks like a brief Subtropical Storm in the Central Subtropical Atlantic in 48hrs FWIW.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#51 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 24, 2018 6:41 pm

Subtropical Storm Alberto?

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#52 Postby Kazmit » Wed Apr 25, 2018 5:43 am

Interesting.

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#53 Postby Alyono » Wed Apr 25, 2018 8:00 am

have a look at the simulated IR. Purely ET
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#54 Postby OuterBanker » Wed Apr 25, 2018 9:38 am

Alyono wrote:have a look at the simulated IR. Purely ET


Alyono. Do you mean Extratropical of Extraterrestrial?

After all it is the GFS!
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#55 Postby Weather150 » Fri Apr 27, 2018 7:44 pm

Image
GFS and FV3-GFS along with the Euro, CMC, and ICON briefly, are all trying to form some tropical disturbance next weekend. Still in the 200+ hour, so a lot can and will change.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#56 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Apr 27, 2018 8:27 pm

:uarrow: Likely just yet another annual phantom storm being portrayed by our friend the GFS. Also at the same time it develops and blows up a hurricane which goes onto making landfall in SW Mexico.

What we can take is that the SW Atlantic is likely to be the hotspot in my opinion this upcoming season.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#57 Postby Weather150 » Sat Apr 28, 2018 6:34 am

TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: Likely just yet another annual phantom storm being portrayed by our friend the GFS. Also at the same time it develops and blows up a hurricane which goes onto making landfall in SW Mexico.

What we can take is that the SW Atlantic is likely to be the hotspot in my opinion this upcoming season.

It honestly very well may be, but it is worth a watch nonetheless, the CCKW/MJO will be favorable at the time.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#58 Postby gatorcane » Sat Apr 28, 2018 6:48 am

TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: Likely just yet another annual phantom storm being portrayed by our friend the GFS. Also at the same time it develops and blows up a hurricane which goes onto making landfall in SW Mexico.

What we can take is that the SW Atlantic is likely to be the hotspot in my opinion this upcoming season.


Maybe not a phantom for the SW Atlantic system. The Euro has a similar solution now. Note that if this comes to fruition, the GFS first started picking it up 12+ days out so very impressive.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#59 Postby cycloneye » Sat Apr 28, 2018 11:12 am

The GFS replacement model FV3 is more bullish than the actual GFS. They are testing this model.


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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#60 Postby cycloneye » Sat Apr 28, 2018 3:40 pm

cycloneye wrote:The GFS replacement model FV3 is more bullish than the actual GFS. They are testing this model.

https://i.imgur.com/ZbjE707.png


12z run not so much but as the actual GFS,it has a big rain event for Puerto Rico,Hispanola and adjacent Islands from next Friday.

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