2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[gatorcane]

12Z EC with lowering pressure in the Bahamas at 192 hours. Goes on to deepen the low some and sends it north to off the Northeastern US coastline:

[CyclonicFury]

18z FV3-GFS still develops the system, and the timeframe is moving up:

A mention from the NHC may be in order if it persists on the models for a couple more days.

[TheStormExpert]

Models basically are showing ultimately multiple areas of vorticity spinning around one big broad area of low pressure. Nothing organized.

[cycloneye]

12z old GFS has it more stronger just north of Bahamas for day 6.

[stormlover2013]

oh we could get a trop storm/dep out of this......by what models or showing

[floridasun78]

we getting may i do see bit early for tropical system maybe substropical

[fci]

An e-mail from "Hurricane Network"

The Hurricane Network is monitoring the possibility of our first tropical or subtropical cyclone forming south of the Bahamas later this week. The Hurricane Network has issued a Special Tropical Cyclone Outlook outlining this area of interest, giving it a low 20% chance in the next five days for tropical development. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will overspread northern Caribbean.

[wxman57]

I was conversing with a friend at the NHC about this feature earlier this morning. Word is that the hurricane specialists are not concerned about it. No special tropical weather outlook is being prepared at this time. I think a brief low center may form, only to be quickly sheared apart. I think I can detect a very weak feature east of the Caribbean along 50W that may be the source.

[TheStormExpert]

I would start watching the Western Caribbean for potential tropical development after mid-May. Already the GFS has been hinting on and off of this potential, the new-GFS had been even more bullish on this.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS long-range but we know the drill:

[ronjon]

Ok I'll start the annual GFS phantom storm discussion for the western caribbean - now two runs in a row, lol.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018050712&fh=360

[tolakram]

^ EPAC system, sniffing out the first one. Same thing every year.

[stormlover2013]

all this tells me though is hurricane season is on its way

[stormlover2013]

Gfs 18z at it again lol https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

[StruThiO]

Lul

Oh divine GFS, please lend us your infinite wisdom

[stormlover2013]

What’s bad we will be model watching now lol

[BYG Jacob]

Is that a hurricane in May? Kek GFS

[Hypercane_Kyle]

It's not even June and the GFS is already up to its usual tomfoolery.

[cycloneye]

Maybe not so laughable JB says.

@BigJoeBastardi
2cnd run in a row GFS day 16 storm. Now its in the Caribbean, MJO heading into favorable phases for mischief after May 15, so perhaps not so laughable



 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/993639591495327746

[chaser1]

Is that a hurricane in May? Kek GFS

Well, if this were to actually verify........ um yeah. Kind of borderline pressure for a minimal hurricane but not unreasonable. The pressures all around are fairly high so given the difference in relative pressure and gradient, I'd guess that 987mb in the N.W. Caribbean would support 65-70 knots.