2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#81 Postby AJC3 » Tue May 08, 2018 4:26 am

Well before the week 2 wackiness, all of the global models are forming a weak BI (baroclinically initiated) low near Florida in about a week.
It forms in association with a cutoff 500MB low.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#82 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 08, 2018 6:48 am

@BigJoeBastardi
Was laughing before, not laughing any more at GFS longer term MJO forecasted through favorable phases, especially after day 10 ( phase 2) early activity next 10 days Pacific, then perhaps to Gulf, Caribbean or SW ATL day 10 on


 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/993818201858469888


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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#83 Postby gatorcane » Tue May 08, 2018 8:53 am

The new FIV3-GFS model is making this quite strong. The FIV3-GFS starts development in 1 week near Nicaragua and sends it north. Hard to believe something like this forms in May, looks more like October. Gets down to 975MB at 246 hours :double:

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Last edited by gatorcane on Tue May 08, 2018 8:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#84 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue May 08, 2018 8:54 am

You gotta be kidding me, right? The new-GFS shows a full-blown hurricane in the Gulf in a week and a half. Talk about an improvement from the current GFS. :lol:

Image
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#85 Postby gatorcane » Tue May 08, 2018 8:57 am

AJC3 wrote:Well before the week 2 wackiness, all of the global models are forming a weak BI (baroclinically initiated) low near Florida in about a week.
It forms in association with a cutoff 500MB low.


Yeah looks interesting, that should be the catalyst to start the rainy season I would think, good news in that it would start early reducing the length of the "fire season." Looks like the ECMWF has it passing just east of Florida while the GFS is in the Eastern Gulf.

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#86 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue May 08, 2018 9:33 am

gatorcane wrote:The new FIV3-GFS model is making this quite strong. The FIV3-GFS starts development in 1 week near Nicaragua and sends it north. Hard to believe something like this forms in May, looks more like October. Gets down to 975MB at 246 hours :double:

[img]https://s18.postimg.cc/kz8xt17h5/fv3p_


I know it is very early in the season to be asking this question...but do you think this could be a major test for the FV3 implementation of the GFS? If this ends up being a phantom storm, then would it make the FV3 look very bad?
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#87 Postby NotSparta » Tue May 08, 2018 9:35 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:
gatorcane wrote:The new FIV3-GFS model is making this quite strong. The FIV3-GFS starts development in 1 week near Nicaragua and sends it north. Hard to believe something like this forms in May, looks more like October. Gets down to 975MB at 246 hours :double:

[img]https://s18.postimg.cc/kz8xt17h5/fv3p_


I know it is very early in the season to be asking this question...but do you think this could be a major test for the FV3 implementation of the GFS? If this ends up being a phantom storm, then would it make the FV3 look very bad?


The FV3 has generally the same physics as the GFS operational, which would mean it's little help in the phantom department.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#88 Postby NotSparta » Tue May 08, 2018 9:48 am

FV3 puts a 974mb low over the CV islands :lol:

Image
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#89 Postby LarryWx » Tue May 08, 2018 9:57 am

NotSparta wrote:FV3 puts a 974mb low over the CV islands :lol:

Image


Actually, this FV3 run and the FV3 runs prior to it initialize a microlow in the 970s at CV and each run keeps it stationary the entire run!

Edit: Looking more closely, it has this right over the highest CV peak, Pico do Fogo, which is over 9,000 feet up:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pico_do_Fogo

This peak seems to be messing with the surface pressure.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#90 Postby tolakram » Tue May 08, 2018 10:25 am

IMO it will put in it the EPAC sooner or later.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#91 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 08, 2018 10:49 am

tolakram wrote:IMO it will put in it the EPAC sooner or later.


In fact,it began with development in EPAC for a few runs. This was on May 4.

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#92 Postby floridasun78 » Tue May 08, 2018 11:42 am

i think we see epac storm first and our side like we wont see one earliest and late june if happen i think models are going over their head with system next week but i do see fl getting good rain next week with setup i hearing
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#93 Postby LarryWx » Tue May 08, 2018 11:47 am

floridasun78 wrote:i think we see epac storm first and our side like we wont see one earliest and late june if happen i think models are going over their head with system next week but i do see fl getting good rain next week with setup i hearing


florida,
I agree that the East Pacific is favored but I will caution folks that IF there is El Nino coming (nobody knows), that actually would favor above normal chances for Gulf activity in June.
Of course, just one TC in the GOM in June would be above the normal.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#94 Postby gatorcane » Tue May 08, 2018 1:01 pm

FV3-GFS has it again where development starts in the SW Caribbean in about a week or so from now lifting north, 180 image below:

Image
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#95 Postby NotSparta » Tue May 08, 2018 1:05 pm

NAVGEM is on board, 1st non-GFS or GEFS model to show it. imo, it's more likely that this disturbance forms in the EPAC, but models like the SW Caribbean

Image
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#96 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue May 08, 2018 1:16 pm

FV3 at 240 hours. Just for fun.....

Image


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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#97 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue May 08, 2018 1:26 pm

I’m having doubts even with the slight increase in model support, it could be EPAC as well and with possible delays on timeframe with genesis.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#98 Postby gatorcane » Tue May 08, 2018 1:30 pm

Wow the FV3 GFS is going bonkers with this system: :double:

Wasn't this model supposed to reduce phantom storms like this?

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#99 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue May 08, 2018 1:38 pm

gatorcane wrote:Wow the FV3 GFS is going bonkers with this system: :double:

Wasn't this model supposed to reduce phantom storms like this?

Image

If I had to take a guess it looks like a potential convective feedback issues is going to be a MAJOR problem with this new-GFS. Correct me if I’m wrong, Alyono knows more about this.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#100 Postby LarryWx » Tue May 08, 2018 1:42 pm

:uarrow: Later, the crazy model strengthens it to 970 mb before going onshore and moving to just se of Ocala at 971 mb (hour 300 Sun eve 5/20)!
Last edited by LarryWx on Tue May 08, 2018 1:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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