Could we get 2 name storms before june?

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
stormlover2013
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2312
Joined: Thu Aug 22, 2013 12:06 pm
Location: Lumberton, Texas

Could we get 2 name storms before june?

#1 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon May 14, 2018 7:06 am

Has that ever happen before?
1 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: Could we get 2 name storms before june?

#2 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon May 14, 2018 7:08 am

Yes it has, two times in the past 6 years. 2012, and 2016. Btw, in my opinion there's probably about a 50/50 shot of it happening again this May.
1 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
Kazmit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1915
Age: 21
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
Location: Williamsburg VA for college, Bermuda otherwise

Re: Could we get 2 name storms before june?

#3 Postby Kazmit » Mon May 14, 2018 8:21 am

There's a decent chance of it happening. I think at least one of them will become a named storm.
1 likes   
Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019

I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Shell Mound
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2434
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL → Scandinavia

Re: Could we get 2 name storms before june?

#4 Postby Shell Mound » Mon May 14, 2018 9:03 am

Here are all the known cases since 1851, with date of formation listed:

1887 Storm #1 – 15 May - TS
1887 Storm #2 – 17 May – TS
1908 Storm #1 – 6 Mar – C2
1908 Storm #2 – 24 May – C1
1951 Storm #1 – 4 Jan - TS
1951 ABLE – 16 May – C1
2012 ALBERTO – 19 May - TS
2012 BERYL – 26 May - TS

Seasonal ACE values:

1887: ACE 181
1908: ACE 95
1951: ACE 126
2012: ACE 129

Average 1951-2000 ACE: 93.2

Sources: Wikipedia, HURDAT

Three-fourths of the years ended up at least slightly above average in terms of ACE. 1908 was apparently about average.

Interestingly, all of the years were fairly active in the MDR, at least in terms of TS-strength storm formation(s).
1 likes   
CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

User avatar
NotSparta
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1644
Age: 22
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Naples, FL
Contact:

Re: Could we get 2 name storms before june?

#5 Postby NotSparta » Mon May 14, 2018 9:18 am

Shell Mound wrote:Here are all the known cases since 1851, with date of formation listed:

1887 Storm #1 – 15 May - TS
1887 Storm #2 – 17 May – TS
1908 Storm #1 – 6 Mar – C2
1908 Storm #2 – 24 May – C1
1951 Storm #1 – 4 Jan - TS
1951 ABLE – 16 May – C1
2012 ALBERTO – 19 May - TS
2012 BERYL – 26 May - TS

Seasonal ACE values:

1887: ACE 181
1908: ACE 95
1951: ACE 126
2012: ACE 129

Average 1951-2000 ACE: 93.2

Sources: Wikipedia, HURDAT

Three-fourths of the years ended up at least slightly above average in terms of ACE. 1908 was apparently about average.

Interestingly, all of the years were fairly active in the MDR, at least in terms of TS-strength storm formation(s).


Average ACE for those years is 132.75.

I can't find ENSO data for 1887 or 1908, but 1951 was followed by a weak-moderate El Nino (peak ONI was 0.9) and 2012 was a failed El Nino. It does appear that this activity is linked with at least a warm up of ENSO and at least the attempt at a Nino.
0 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.

My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138884
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Could we get 2 name storms before june?

#6 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 14, 2018 12:54 pm

27 storms have formed in May since 1851 until 2017.

Image
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1970
Age: 25
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: Could we get 2 name storms before june?

#7 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon May 14, 2018 10:15 pm

I doubt we will see two named storms before June at this point, especially with the Gulf of Mexico disturbance failing to organize. We could still get Alberto this month if a gyre forms, but even that may not happen.
1 likes   
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 56 guests