2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS has cat.1/cat.2 conditions for western/SW Florida.

[floridasun78]

do think too early still say this likely happen south fl dont need this or any other area as beach here going be pack for long weekend

[floridasun78]

18z GFS has cat.1/cat.2 conditions for western/SW Florida.

this not aug so you discount this that look like hurricane irma

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

With all the consistency with many of the major models and euro also showing something- this potential sheared tropical cyclone has my attention. Models show a lot of rain especially for the east coast of Florida and the Keys long range- regardless of development Florida might have some big flooding problems down the road. Parts of South Florida have seen 7 inches of rain this week.

[Sciencerocks]

With all the consistency with many of the major models and euro also showing something- this potential sheared tropical cyclone has my attention. Models show a lot of rain especially for the east coast of Florida and the Keys long range- regardless of development Florida might have some big flooding problems down the road. Parts of South Florida have seen 7 inches of rain this week.

Yep, if the trend keeps up and with the majority of models(outside of the gfs!) continue to show it this may hint at Alberto. It wouldn't surprise me as this is near or within an week of the time the A storm typically forms within the gulf or western caribbean.

[johngaltfla]

18z GFS has cat.1/cat.2 conditions for western/SW Florida.

this not aug so you discount this that look like hurricane irma

Technically, you are correct. However a Cat 1 hurricane for SW Florida is not unusual for late May-Early June in the hurricane season. Would I be shocked no? Would I be mad? Oh yes so those roofers best finish up by Friday!!!!!!

[gatorcane]

FV3 GFS going with a 960mb CAT 3 major hurricane in the Eastern Gulf. The experimental model that is supposed to replace the current GFS needs some tweaking.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Evening everyone,

It's looking as if this season is going to start off busy. The wave that came in from the Bahamas a week or so ago, then the current disturbance soaking S. Fla, Now a potential TC in a week or so. I don't see the SST's along the Gulf coast that warm to support a high end Cat 1 let alone a Cat 2,, but looks to be windy and wet no matter what forms.

[NDG]

This would really stink if models pan out for Memorial weekend, a lot of beach plans will be ruined. Good thing that this is still in the 7-10 day range and things could still change, hoping for ridging to build in and keep it away from FL.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z GFS has cat.1/cat.2 conditions for western/SW Florida.

this not aug so you discount this that look like hurricane irma

Technically, you are correct. However a Cat 1 hurricane for SW Florida is not unusual for late May-Early June in the hurricane season. Would I be shocked no? Would I be mad? Oh yes so those roofers best finish up by Friday!!!!!!

? That's still extremely, extremely rare. A weak TS is not unusual for SW Florida in early June. I can only think of 1-2 occurrences in the last 70 years where a Cat 1 has it Florida before June 15th.

[CyclonicFury]

Would not be surprised to see a sheared moderate TS making landfall in NW Florida sometime around Memorial Day weekend. Still a long way out, but that would be the favored track for this time of year.

[Sciencerocks]

Evening everyone,

It's looking as if this season is going to start off busy. The wave that came in from the Bahamas a week or so ago, then the current disturbance soaking S. Fla, Now a potential TC in a week or so. I don't see the SST's along the Gulf coast that warm to support a high end Cat 1 let alone a Cat 2,, but looks to be windy and wet no matter what forms.

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
HURRICANE ALLISON DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN JUN 04 1995

RECON SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN CENTRAL PRESSURE THIS EVENING. HIGHEST
OBSERVED FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 74 KNOTS...SUGGESTING SURFACE WINDS
NEAR MINIMAL HURRICANE FORCE. ALTHOUGH STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO FIRE NEAR THE CENTER OF ALLISON...OVERALL THE STORM IS NOT THAT
WELL ORGANIZED. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY WSR-88D RADAR OBSERVATIONS
WHICH DO NOT SHOW A WELL-DEFINED EYE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS
STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST...BUT IT APPEARS
UNLIKELY THAT ALLISON WILL STRENGTHEN BEYOND CATEGORY ONE STATUS.
NOTWITHSTANDING...THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM SURGE HEIGHTS TO NEAR 10
FEET STILL EXISTS FOR THE COASTAL AREA OF APALACHEE BAY.

RECON FIXES SHOW A CONTINUED NORTHWARD MOTION NEAR 14 KNOTS. THE
CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT
IS JUST A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTH IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MORE
REASONABLE-LOOKING OBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTIONS. THE MID- AND
DEEP-LAYER MEAN FLOWS LOOK ZONAL ENOUGH TO THE NORTH OF 30N LATITUDE
TO CARRY THE SYSTEM OUT TO SEA WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NE UNITED STATES
AFTER ALLISON...IF IT SURVIVES ITS TRANSIT OVER THE SE UNITED
STATES...EMERGES INTO THE ATLANTIC.

PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0300Z 28.2N 86.1W 65 KTS
12HR VT 05/1200Z 30.1N 85.6W 70 KTS
24HR VT 06/0000Z 32.2N 83.9W 35 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT 06/1200Z 34.0N 81.0W 30 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT 07/0000Z 36.0N 77.5W 30 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT 08/0000Z 39.0N 69.0W 30 KTS

NNNN




It's possible but unlikely! And yes, this alison weakened to a tropical storm on the northern coast but it wasn't far from land as a hurricane.

[TheProfessor]

Going to be watching this closely, going to be going on vacation to Jamaica this Saturday and it seems like the models have been wavering on whether Jamaica sees a quite a bit of rain or very little. It would actually be better for me to have a stronger storm near CA(but worse for them) and I'm going to need that Ridge to flex its muscles lol.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Euro brings our potential future tropical storm up the west coast of Florida bringing heavy rain and wind to the entire peninsula. 996 mb just west of Tampa Bay on day 10. The consistency of the euro as well as other models has my close attention.

[cycloneye]

Here is the 00z Euro on day 10.

[northjaxpro]

6Z GFS just out in agreement with the latest EURO in showing our potential tropical cyclone emerging off the Florida West Coast. It is showing 990 mb strong TS /borderline cat 1 cane just west of Tampa Bay at 240 hours.

Later, GFS moves it to make landfall at Apalachicola in 264 hours.

[northjaxpro]

A track like the EURO and GFS is currently showing would bring serious flooding concerns to much of the Florida peninsula, especially North and Central Florida. I am watching this very closely. Also, potential tornadoes would be a major concern as well if this track were to pan out.

[Florida1118]

Wrap of last night's frames showing the area as it starts to organize. Definitely consensus on some disturbed weather in the Caribbean late next week:

[BobHarlem]

Memorial Weekend looks, um, interesting, for Florida with the 6Z GFS. The GFS showing a hurricane stalled off of Tampa over that weekend is going to ruin a lot of plans. Euro is showing the same thing. It being May is a guarantee of it being a really messy disorganized system in any case.

[stormlover2013]

going to be interesting to watch, but don't jump the gun yet, these models have already been going wacko this year even though I think they are on to something