ENSO Updates

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Re: ENSO Updates

#9401 Postby NotSparta » Fri May 18, 2018 9:48 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote::uarrow: I looked through more posts, and the upcoming trade pattern looks similar, with the stronger ones toward the dateline, and westerly anomalies near South America. Not saying we'll have another failed attempt, but it seems that the pattern isn't the most favorable for El Niño, especially since they tend to build west to east.


I know it sounds like I'm beating a dead horse here lol, but the zonal wind pattern this year is a lot more El Nino-esque than last year. I don't recall one large scale WWB over the Eq. Pacific after Feb.2017. Compare that to the CFS wind graphic I posted earlier today which has repeated WWB's.


As will I :lol: , I haven't seen any coherent WWBs since March, and going into Boreal summer, things are more difficult for WWBs. The upcoming date line trade surge is not trivial, and suppresses the Bjerknes feedback, it appears.

You are correct about the Kelvin waves, though. However, it appears that the current one is stalled out, and hasn't moved in quite some time. After checking the buoy data, since 1990, every El Niño but 1994 and 2004 had the bulk of their respective warm pools a) very far east and b) close to the surface. This isn't really true with this year.

I could be wrong, but I'm just throwing my two cents in. :)
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9402 Postby Kingarabian » Fri May 18, 2018 10:38 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote::uarrow: I looked through more posts, and the upcoming trade pattern looks similar, with the stronger ones toward the dateline, and westerly anomalies near South America. Not saying we'll have another failed attempt, but it seems that the pattern isn't the most favorable for El Niño, especially since they tend to build west to east.


I know it sounds like I'm beating a dead horse here lol, but the zonal wind pattern this year is a lot more El Nino-esque than last year. I don't recall one large scale WWB over the Eq. Pacific after Feb.2017. Compare that to the CFS wind graphic I posted earlier today which has repeated WWB's.


As will I :lol: , I haven't seen any coherent WWBs since March, and going into Boreal summer, things are more difficult for WWBs. The upcoming date line trade surge is not trivial, and suppresses the Bjerknes feedback, it appears.

You are correct about the Kelvin waves, though. However, it appears that the current one is stalled out, and hasn't moved in quite some time. After checking the buoy data, since 1990, every El Niño but 1994 and 2004 had the bulk of their respective warm pools a) very far east and b) close to the surface. This isn't really true with this year.

I could be wrong, but I'm just throwing my two cents in. :)


There was a WWB in March that ended around the beginning of April.

Since April 19 till present, there has been a basin wide coherent WWB event shown here:
Image

As seen in Ntxw's recent posts, the sub-surface pool has reached the far eastern Pacfic and is beginning to surface.

I'm still going to go with warm neutral for ASO as long as the SST anoms remain at this level, but I would definitely would not be surprised to see an El Nino instead. Very warm and large sub surface pool is present, the atmosphere showing more signs of being welcome to an El Nino state and in a warm PDO regime -- with a perfect analog in 2009s El Nino, how much would one be willing to bet against an El Nino at this point?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9403 Postby NotSparta » Sat May 19, 2018 6:07 am

Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
I know it sounds like I'm beating a dead horse here lol, but the zonal wind pattern this year is a lot more El Nino-esque than last year. I don't recall one large scale WWB over the Eq. Pacific after Feb.2017. Compare that to the CFS wind graphic I posted earlier today which has repeated WWB's.


As will I :lol: , I haven't seen any coherent WWBs since March, and going into Boreal summer, things are more difficult for WWBs. The upcoming date line trade surge is not trivial, and suppresses the Bjerknes feedback, it appears.

You are correct about the Kelvin waves, though. However, it appears that the current one is stalled out, and hasn't moved in quite some time. After checking the buoy data, since 1990, every El Niño but 1994 and 2004 had the bulk of their respective warm pools a) very far east and b) close to the surface. This isn't really true with this year.

I could be wrong, but I'm just throwing my two cents in. :)


There was a WWB in March that ended around the beginning of April.

Since April 19 till present, there has been a basin wide coherent WWB event shown here:
Image

As seen in Ntxw's recent posts, the sub-surface pool has reached the far eastern Pacfic and is beginning to surface.

I'm still going to go with warm neutral for ASO as long as the SST anoms remain at this level, but I would definitely would not be surprised to see an El Nino instead. Very warm and large sub surface pool is present, the atmosphere showing more signs of being welcome to an El Nino state and in a warm PDO regime -- with a perfect analog in 2009s El Nino, how much would one be willing to bet against an El Nino at this point?


Oops, I was looking at a different graphic than yours.

The subsurface pool is in a weird spot. Every traditional El Niño since 1990 has had the bulk of it around the coast and very close to the surface. 2018's subsurface pool had time to do that, but it stalled, and has not moved very much in the past month or two, leaving the weaker, eastern parts to surface, and leaving the bulk very far west and deep under the surface.

Image

I think we get a west based Niño due to this, since those are the only Niños that have come out of these subsurface configurations.

I agree that warm neutral is most likely for ASO. However, I would be generally surprised to see El Niño by then, just simply because there isn't time to switch that fast, especially with an atmosphere that hasn't quite coupled.

The atmosphere is becoming more friendly to El Niño, but I think the PDO is actually slightly negative.

2009, at this point, had a Niño 3.4 at 0.4°C, and Niño 1+2 with the same anomaly. 2018 is behind both, and now by a good margin, without the warm pool being mostly close to the surface, so, IMO, 2018 is not a very good analog to 2009.

Actually I'm not betting against El Niño right now, I do believe there will be a weak one this winter, which given the factors is very believable.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9404 Postby Shell Mound » Sat May 19, 2018 6:33 am

The last time that the MDR featured above-average SSTs was on 13 March. That date coincided with a -NAO period and still (mostly) featured a +AMO signature, a legacy of 2017. Since then, the NAO has been robustly positive, the positive SSTs have disappeared, and a strong -AMO has emerged. Most importantly, the tropical Pacific has warmed substantially, while the central North Pacific has cooled, indicating a definite trend toward a +PDO and El Niño over time. As the graphic from Tropical Tidbits shows, the MDR went from being the warmest basin globally in 2017 to the coldest at this point in time, while the subtropical NW Atlantic is now the warmest spot on the planet. Also note that the short-lived -PDO of the past few months is eroding, as a cold pool emerges over the central N Pacific. Slowly but surely the Pacific is following the atmosphere toward El Niño, and the Atlantic is exhibiting similar feedback, trending toward unfavourable conditions.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#9405 Postby tolakram » Sat May 19, 2018 7:20 am

I don't see any connection between Atlantic SST's and nino / nina episodes. The Atlantic can be unfavorable regardless of the nino state, as far as I know. What am I missing?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9406 Postby Ntxw » Sat May 19, 2018 7:47 am

tolakram wrote:I don't see any connection between Atlantic SST's and nino / nina episodes. The Atlantic can be unfavorable regardless of the nino state, as far as I know. What am I missing?


There are papers indicating a background forcing of the spatial pressure pattern link between the Pacific-North American-Atlantic mode. During an El Nino, the domino tends to fall in way of increasing the subtropical sprawling high over the Atlantic, reversing during a La Nina. The stronger high, over average and time, creates the -AMO-like spatial pattern vice versa for La Nina. It is not 100% but a contributing factor as to why El Ninos can be a problem for the Atlantic basin other than shear.

It is not only that the ENSO effects the Atlantic, it can also be the opposite as well where SLP pattern over the Atlantic can fend off the Pacific even stunting growth of El Nino or La Nina.

It's a long read, but a very good one!

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00520.1

So while not directly SSTs, it does influence pressure patterns that do have a say in warming or cooling of basin SSTa in areas
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9407 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 19, 2018 9:25 am

JMA says not so fast for a warming Pacific.

@BenNollWeather
The latest JMA seasonal guidance has trended slower with a transition to ENSO-neutral+ this summer, as indicated by more persistent cool SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific.




https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/997839758536650752
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9408 Postby tolakram » Sat May 19, 2018 11:30 am

I can't find a good analog for this year when looking at past SST anomalies.


What years can 2018 be compared too? 2009 is not bad, but in May we were already headed to a strong el nino.

Image

1996 is interesting, though of course not an exact match.

This is the AUG 3rd image, earlier months not available for some reason.

Image

1996 ended up being a cold neutral / borderline weak la nina.

Source for all images above: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/index.html
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9409 Postby NDG » Sat May 19, 2018 11:45 am

tolakram wrote:I can't find a good analog for this year when looking at past SST anomalies.


What years can 2018 be compared too? 2009 is not bad, but in May we were already headed to a strong el nino.

https://i.imgur.com/L4tMyD4.gif

1996 is interesting, though of course not an exact match.

This is the AUG 3rd image, earlier months not available for some reason.

https://i.imgur.com/lvngEje.png

1996 ended up being a cold neutral / borderline weak la nina.

Source for all images above: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/index.html


I'm in the same train, I can't find a good analog either.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9410 Postby Ntxw » Sat May 19, 2018 12:56 pm

tolakram wrote:I can't find a good analog for this year when looking at past SST anomalies.


What years can 2018 be compared too? 2009 is not bad, but in May we were already headed to a strong el nino.

https://i.imgur.com/L4tMyD4.gif

1996 is interesting, though of course not an exact match.

This is the AUG 3rd image, earlier months not available for some reason.

https://i.imgur.com/lvngEje.png

1996 ended up being a cold neutral / borderline weak la nina.

Source for all images above: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/index.html


1994 is a good Atlantic match. Pacific is kinda sorta, southern hemisphere spatially a bit different

Image

Image

ECMWF image is from Ocean Reanalysis on their site

ECMWF Ocean Reanalysis
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9411 Postby Kingarabian » Sat May 19, 2018 2:54 pm

tolakram wrote:I can't find a good analog for this year when looking at past SST anomalies.


What years can 2018 be compared too? 2009 is not bad, but in May we were already headed to a strong el nino.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/L4tMyD4.gif[img]

1996 is interesting, though of course not an exact match.

This is the AUG 3rd image, earlier months not available for some reason.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/lvngEje.png[img]

1996 ended up being a cold neutral / borderline weak la nina.

Source for all images above: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/index.html


Here's a tweet about the composition of SST configurations preceding El Nino and how 2018 is aligning well:



https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/988880924451450880
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9412 Postby Kingarabian » Sat May 19, 2018 6:22 pm

+0.2C Monday? Looks like the +0.2C contour just crosses the 140W/0N intersection

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Re: ENSO Updates

#9413 Postby tolakram » Sat May 19, 2018 6:46 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Here's a tweet about the composition of SST configurations preceding El Nino and how 2018 is aligning well:

[tw eet]https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/988880924451450880[/tweet]



Why does he ignore the MDR and southern Atlantic?

I mean, if this was easy to predict .., well, it would be easy. :D
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9414 Postby Kingarabian » Sat May 19, 2018 6:52 pm

tolakram wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Here's a tweet about the composition of SST configurations preceding El Nino and how 2018 is aligning well:

[tw eet]https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/988880924451450880[/tweet]



Why does he ignore the MDR and southern Atlantic?

I mean, if this was easy to predict .., well, it would be easy. :D


In the graphics he tweeted, the MDR and southern Atlantic look almost the same to me. Maybe 2018's SST's in the MDR and southern Atlantic are a bit warmer.

Also going back to 2006 and 2009. I don't think both of those years had analogs as well. I think it's entirely possible for a year to have a different global SST configuration and still see certain results.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9415 Postby tolakram » Sat May 19, 2018 7:47 pm

Kingarabian wrote:In the graphics he tweeted, the MDR and southern Atlantic look almost the same to me. Maybe 2018's SST's in the MDR and southern Atlantic are a bit warmer.

Also going back to 2006 and 2009. I don't think both of those years had analogs as well. I think it's entirely possible for a year to have a different global SST configuration and still see certain results.


The Atlantic near the equator is very warm, but it may not mean much. It seems some of the mets, or tweets, like to cherry pick the data just like we do. :)

I agree, it may not have an analog, and these are only SST's which are a very small part of the story.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9416 Postby NotSparta » Sat May 19, 2018 7:59 pm

On Twitter, I compared the subsurface frames of mid May to Niño years, we do not match the configuration of a traditional east based Niño, but we also appear to mismatch from failed Niños, since 2018 is missing a cold pool.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9417 Postby Kingarabian » Sat May 19, 2018 10:36 pm

tolakram wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:In the graphics he tweeted, the MDR and southern Atlantic look almost the same to me. Maybe 2018's SST's in the MDR and southern Atlantic are a bit warmer.

Also going back to 2006 and 2009. I don't think both of those years had analogs as well. I think it's entirely possible for a year to have a different global SST configuration and still see certain results.


The Atlantic near the equator is very warm, but it may not mean much. It seems some of the mets, or tweets, like to cherry pick the data just like we do. :)

I agree, it may not have an analog, and these are only SST's which are a very small part of the story.

NotSparta wrote:On Twitter, I compared the subsurface frames of mid May to Niño years, we do not match the configuration of a traditional east based Niño, but we also appear to mismatch from failed Niños, since 2018 is missing a cold pool.


I agree with you two. I guess just continue to wait and see is the best lol. Since ENSO is composed of ocean and atmosphere, it's a lot harder to see which way the atmosphere is going to go compared to the ocean which seems to always be primed. When it comes to El Nino, I think for every argument for it, naturally there's a scientific counter argument against it.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9418 Postby NotSparta » Sun May 20, 2018 5:34 am

Kingarabian wrote:
tolakram wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:In the graphics he tweeted, the MDR and southern Atlantic look almost the same to me. Maybe 2018's SST's in the MDR and southern Atlantic are a bit warmer.

Also going back to 2006 and 2009. I don't think both of those years had analogs as well. I think it's entirely possible for a year to have a different global SST configuration and still see certain results.


The Atlantic near the equator is very warm, but it may not mean much. It seems some of the mets, or tweets, like to cherry pick the data just like we do. :)

I agree, it may not have an analog, and these are only SST's which are a very small part of the story.

NotSparta wrote:On Twitter, I compared the subsurface frames of mid May to Niño years, we do not match the configuration of a traditional east based Niño, but we also appear to mismatch from failed Niños, since 2018 is missing a cold pool.


I agree with you two. I guess just continue to wait and see is the best lol. Since ENSO is composed of ocean and atmosphere, it's a lot harder to see which way the atmosphere is going to go compared to the ocean which seems to always be primed. When it comes to El Nino, I think for every argument for it, naturally there's a scientific counter argument against it.


The data I use goes back to 1990 so it might just be the tiny sample size :lol:

Seriously though we need the warm pool to begin moving east again for traditional Niño, and it's looking like a Modoki atmospheric state too. The trade burst could disrupt that based on length, but it's not the best look for El Niño in general
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9419 Postby Kingarabian » Sun May 20, 2018 3:14 pm

Euro pushes the MJO into phase 3 towards the end of the month:

Image

This phase doesn't really favor Darwin or Tahiti. But if the MJO gets into phase 4 or 5 and amplifies, then that means there will be a very positive SOI setup and trades will takeover across the equatorial pacific.

Also latest Euro 10 day forecast shows the SOI closing off May as barely negative or at neutral. For El Nino chances, this is going to be a speed bump if it were to verify. But it does switch the SOI back to negative towards the end of its run.
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2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

#9420 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 20, 2018 5:56 pm

@webberweather
The tropical Atlantic & east-central subtropical North Pacific are continuing to progressively evolve together towards a weak-moderate CP El Niño down the road w/ cold MDR and +PMM remaining intact or intensifying. -SSTAs in the SE Pacific will try to thwart an east based event.


Image



https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/998333441505742853
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