2018 CPAC Season
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- Kingarabian
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2018 CPAC Season
I think this thread will be needed as all indicators point to an above-average CPAC season. So unfortunately, Hawaii will likely be under the gun. That's going to make it 4 out of the 5 past seasons (2014, 2015, 2016, and likely 2018) that Hawaii will be threatened.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2018 CPAC Season
There's been a lot of tweets from experts in regards to the higher threat to Hawaii this year. So post any that you see.
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/994902890165735424
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/994902890165735424
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: 2018 CPAC Season
I don't agree with all of the hype the basin is getting, which is at levels I haven't seen in my years tracking the basin but they're dead right on the Hawaii threat. An El Nino could cut off the door from approaching the state from the east but the era of cold water east of Hawaii is over.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2018 CPAC Season
We're probably a generation or two away from Hawaii being at a similar hurricane risk to say the south Pacific and Guam tbh. Fortunately though there's some chance that they will likely still fall apart once it gets very close to it due to topography
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- Kingarabian
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2018 CPAC Season
NOAA releases CPAC outlook: Near or above normal season.
http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa- ... al-pacific
http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa- ... al-pacific
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- CyclonicFury
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Re: 2018 CPAC Season
We have Invest 90C. No development expected.
ZCZC HFOTWOCP ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 AM HST Tue Jun 19 2018
For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:
1. An area of thunderstorms has developed about 750 miles south of the
main Hawaiian Islands. The disturbance may persist for a
Conditions days, but conditions in the upper atmosphere are not
very favorable for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.
Forecaster Donaldson/Kino
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2018 CPAC Season
Since late May/early June, SST's surrounding Hawaii to the south and west have been warm enough. Through July, waters east of the islands are sufficiently warm enough to keep an EPAC long tracker strong rounding the STR and allow a threat to the islands from the east through July. Going into August-September-October, waters to the east of Hawaii will allow any potential EPAC long tracker to strengthen upon entry into the CPAC.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2018 CPAC Season
Minmal EPS support but, 18z GFS has a well defined disturbance moving into the CPAC next week, something to keep an eye on:
00z Euro:
00z Euro:
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2018 CPAC Season
Potential Double trouble on the 00z Euro:
Hope the STR stays put.
Hope the STR stays put.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2018 CPAC Season
The moisture and instability are expected to taper off by early next week, so we expect a bit of respite from the wet weather pattern on Monday and Tuesday. However, by Wednesday the forecast models show a low-level disturbance moving westward just south of the state, with an area of enhanced tropical moisture passing near the Big Island, and potentially being pushed onshore by the trades. This implies that another increase in rainfall may occur around the middle of next week, especially over parts of the windward and southern Big Island, and possibly portions of windward Maui.
-CPHC
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Re: 2018 CPAC Season
Indeed the CPAC will see some increased activity over the next couple of weeks but of mostly weak systems especially the further north they track as a wall of shear has been more permanent than not across the Hawaiian Islands.
The GFS has been erroneously forecasting the TUTT to move north of the Hawaiian Islands.
The GFS has been erroneously forecasting the TUTT to move north of the Hawaiian Islands.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2018 CPAC Season
NDG wrote:Indeed the CPAC will see some increased activity over the next couple of weeks but of mostly weak systems especially the further north they track as a wall of shear has been more permanent than not across the Hawaiian Islands.
The GFS has been erroneously forecasting the TUTT to move north of the Hawaiian Islands.
[img]https://i.imgur.com/qXs9LLf.gif[img]
Yeah it sure is there every year.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2018 CPAC Season
Kingarabian,in your neck of the woods.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2018 CPAC Season
And the 12z Euro gets stronger.
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- Kingarabian
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2018 CPAC Season
Euro's 200mb wind forecast by day 10 shows the TUTT moving north of the Hawaiian Islands. Something to keep an eye on if there's a threat coming from the east or south east.
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Re: 2018 CPAC Season
While waters near Hawaii have warmed significantly in recent decades (and particularly since the +PDO/+PMM onset), shear has arguably increased to offset other conducive conditions. While not a yearly occurrence, more hurricanes seemed to affect Hawaii prior to the mid-1990s, including Dot (1959), Iwa (1982), and Iniki (1992). Since then, the frequency and intensity of landfalls seem to have dropped off rather significantly, despite SSTs' having become notably more favourable for impacts. This goes to show that SSTs are but one factor. In fact, the very factors that increase SSTs may also contribute to enhanced vertical wind shear (and other hostile conditions).
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
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