ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 251941
AF307 0101A ALBERTO HDOB 15 20180525
192930 1935N 08534W 8429 01556 //// +159 //// 173004 005 016 000 05
193000 1934N 08536W 8425 01559 //// +156 //// 161004 005 016 000 01
193030 1933N 08537W 8429 01554 //// +157 //// 162004 004 016 000 01
193100 1932N 08538W 8429 01554 //// +155 //// 161004 004 016 000 01
193130 1930N 08539W 8430 01551 //// +155 //// 164004 004 016 000 01
193200 1929N 08540W 8429 01552 0080 +160 +151 152004 004 017 000 00
193230 1928N 08542W 8429 01552 0080 +160 +153 148004 004 017 000 00
193300 1927N 08543W 8430 01549 0080 +160 +152 132003 004 016 000 00
193330 1926N 08544W 8430 01549 0080 +160 +152 140002 003 015 000 00
193400 1925N 08545W 8429 01552 0082 +160 +153 093000 001 014 000 00
193430 1923N 08547W 8432 01551 0081 +162 +152 113001 001 016 000 00
193500 1922N 08548W 8429 01552 0079 +160 +152 273001 001 016 000 00
193530 1921N 08549W 8431 01549 0081 +160 +157 183002 002 016 000 05
193600 1920N 08550W 8431 01549 0081 +160 +156 252002 003 016 000 01
193630 1919N 08552W 8430 01549 //// +159 //// 274003 004 016 001 01
193700 1918N 08553W 8429 01551 //// +157 //// 248003 004 018 000 01
193730 1916N 08554W 8429 01551 //// +160 //// 191002 004 018 000 01
193800 1915N 08555W 8429 01551 //// +160 //// 223001 002 018 000 01
193830 1914N 08556W 8427 01552 //// +160 //// 231002 003 018 000 01
193900 1913N 08558W 8428 01551 //// +160 //// 213003 004 020 000 01
$$

[cycloneye]

@TropicalTidbits
[#tweetForNerds] For now, #Alberto is a mess. A dropsonde just NW of buoy 42056 found SE winds at the surface (buoy confirms), but WSW winds only 1 km above the surface. If anything, this might indicate that the mid-level center, w/ a bit more diabatic heating, may reach the sfc.

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 251951
AF307 0101A ALBERTO HDOB 16 20180525
193930 1912N 08559W 8431 01546 //// +161 //// 207003 005 017 000 01
194000 1911N 08600W 8429 01549 //// +160 //// 220002 003 016 000 01
194030 1910N 08601W 8433 01547 //// +161 //// 206002 003 017 000 01
194100 1908N 08602W 8428 01551 0074 +165 +162 173002 003 017 000 01
194130 1907N 08604W 8431 01548 //// +166 //// 147002 004 017 001 01
194200 1906N 08605W 8435 01545 //// +166 //// 145003 005 018 001 01
194230 1905N 08606W 8425 01554 0073 +168 +161 093003 004 017 001 01
194300 1904N 08607W 8428 01551 0072 +169 +162 077004 004 018 000 01
194330 1903N 08609W 8431 01547 0072 +170 +166 046004 004 016 000 01
194400 1901N 08610W 8429 01549 0069 +172 +164 056004 005 015 000 00
194430 1900N 08611W 8429 01548 0067 +175 +165 051005 005 017 000 00
194500 1859N 08612W 8430 01547 0067 +175 +169 083004 005 017 000 00
194530 1858N 08614W 8428 01551 0066 +180 +165 102005 006 017 000 00
194600 1857N 08615W 8437 01538 0064 +178 +168 119007 007 019 000 00
194630 1856N 08616W 8426 01552 0066 +175 +168 117007 008 019 000 01
194700 1854N 08617W 8428 01548 //// +174 //// 122007 008 021 001 01
194730 1853N 08618W 8430 01546 //// +173 //// 099006 007 021 001 01
194800 1852N 08620W 8430 01546 //// +174 //// 084007 008 021 001 01
194830 1851N 08621W 8545 01446 //// +173 //// 064007 007 021 000 05
194900 1850N 08621W 8781 01207 //// +191 //// 021006 007 018 000 05
$$
;

[cycloneye]

[Sciencerocks]

Most certainly closed with the LLC north of 20.

[GCANE]

Popups starting to fire across the Yucatan.
That should help to moisten the mid-layers and support convection over Alberto overnight and into the morning.

[Steve H.]

If the mid-level works down to the surface that would mean that the low-level Center would be forming further to the east. The small low-level vortice to the Southwest will probably dissipate.

[cycloneye]

Found center.

000
URNT15 KNHC 252005
AF307 0101A ALBERTO HDOB 17 20180525
194930 1848N 08621W 9056 00951 //// +202 //// 000006 007 016 001 05
195000 1847N 08620W 9242 00756 //// +209 //// 031005 007 021 000 01
195030 1847N 08618W 9241 00749 //// +215 //// 064002 004 020 000 01
195100 1846N 08617W 9270 00722 //// +216 //// 126002 003 018 001 01
195130 1845N 08615W 9243 00746 //// +215 //// 147004 005 017 000 01
195200 1845N 08614W 9257 00733 0063 +215 +213 164005 005 016 001 00
195230 1844N 08612W 9257 00732 0062 +216 +213 185005 006 015 000 03
195300 1842N 08613W 9238 00747 0060 +218 +212 194004 004 015 000 00
195330 1841N 08614W 9258 00729 0061 +215 +212 248003 004 015 000 01
195400 1840N 08615W 9248 00738 0058 +215 +211 282007 009 016 000 01
195430 1839N 08616W 9253 00733 0058 +216 +211 290013 013 016 000 00
195500 1838N 08618W 9244 00741 0059 +215 +213 294014 014 015 000 01
195530 1837N 08619W 9250 00735 0059 +218 +211 294014 015 015 000 00
195600 1836N 08620W 9248 00739 0059 +219 +209 307016 017 017 000 00
195630 1835N 08621W 9249 00738 0060 +222 +205 311016 017 019 001 00
195700 1834N 08622W 9250 00740 0063 +214 +212 308015 017 020 001 01
195730 1833N 08623W 9250 00738 0063 +217 +203 309017 018 020 000 00
195800 1832N 08625W 9251 00739 0065 +216 +202 311017 017 021 000 00
195830 1830N 08626W 9250 00740 0066 +213 +206 314017 017 019 000 00
195900 1829N 08627W 9250 00740 0065 +215 +204 316016 017 020 000 00
$$

[cycloneye]

[MGC]

I'm at ground zero in NHC first Alberto landfall forecast...likely will change though. Alberto looks like a prime candidate for center reformation to the NE closer to the MCL. I'm a bit surprised the NHC named the system this morning. What bothers me is the slowdown as Alberto approaches the Northern Gulf Coast. Reminds me of Alberto stalling in 1994 causing massive flooding in the south-east......MGC

[Evil Jeremy]

Most certainly closed with the LLC north of 20.

https://i.imgur.com/DnzRBK7.png

A bit NE of the 2pm advisory location.

Red circle is roughly where recon found west wind, blue circle roughly 2pm advisory location.

[tolakram]

Kinda surprised that the nhc classified this Alberto as ill defined as it is, but heck, they name winter storms now Nevertheless, it should develop during the weekend and could get close to hurricane status if he encounters favorable conditions for a time. Hoping the rain gets pulled west away from east central Florida!

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

The Weather Channel names winter storms, not a government agency. Just to be clear. I think the NHC knows what they are doing here.

[caneman]

Most certainly closed with the LLC north of 20.

https://i.imgur.com/DnzRBK7.png

A bit NE of the 2pm advisory location.

Red circle is roughly where recon found west wind, blue circle roughly 2pm advisory location.

I'm no rocket scientist or err.... meteorologist but that would seem to change downrange modeling and perhaps bring even closer to West coast of Florida. Will that make landfall Pensacola or East like Panama City?

[Aric Dunn]

That apparent circ on recon was not in the surface circ. that was 5000 plus feet. they were not fully at operational for some reason. when they went through the vort/llc to the south they were at 2000 feet. so nothing to the north is in the lower level. still mid level.


this can be confirmed by the bouy that recon nearly flew over showing ESE at the actual surface.

[tropicwatch]

They have found two vortices one where the red circle is placed and the other close to the area of the blue circle.

[tpr1967]

Most certainly closed with the LLC north of 20.

https://i.imgur.com/DnzRBK7.png

A bit NE of the 2pm advisory location.

Red circle is roughly where recon found west wind, blue circle roughly 2pm advisory location.

I think your red circle is the mid level circulation and the low level swirl just south and east of your blue circle is the low level center recon found.JMO.

[afswo]

Kinda surprised that the nhc classified this Alberto as ill defined as it is, but heck, they name winter storms now Nevertheless, it should develop during the weekend and could get close to hurricane status if he encounters favorable conditions for a time. Hoping the rain gets pulled west away from east central Florida!

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Actually, that is The Weather Channel , not the National Weather Service or other Government Agencies.

[Aric Dunn]

They have found two vortices one where the red circle is placed and the other close to the area of the blue circle.

The one to the north is not at the surface.

also not really a circ in the mid levels either.. just the change in wind direction as the descended in altitude.

[LarryWx]

Vortex message:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT2.shtml

000
URNT12 KNHC 252028
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012018
A. 25/19:50:50Z
B. 18 deg 46 min N
086 deg 17 min W
C. 925 mb 745 m
D. 22 kt
E. 043 deg 105 nm
F. 244 deg 14 kt
G. 043 deg 105 nm
H. EXTRAP 1006 mb
I. 17 C / 1525 m
J. 22 C / 746 m
K. 22 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 9
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF307 0101A ALBERTO OB 06
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 23 KT 222 / 56 NM 20:11:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
MAX FL TEMP 23 C 200 / 12 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[Aric Dunn]

1006 mb Dropsonde center pass.