Two years after El Nino's end...

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Dean_175
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Re: Two years after El Nino's end...

#61 Postby Dean_175 » Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:40 pm

I think the only reason for this would be the state of ENSO two years after El Nino tends to be La Nina or neutral. I do not remember off the top of my head how La Nina impacts the probability of a landfall in the US- but if neutral or weak Nina increases that probability over moderate-strong Nina, that could be an answer- since the second year after El Nino tends to feature either neutral or a weaker La Nina than the previous (with many exceptions though).

I don't think that there is any more to it than that. Part of it may just be coincidental; If you look at meteorological statistics long enough, you will always eventually find random combination of variables that will correlate strongly(across some time range) to something by chance (ie. 2 years after a El Nino that followed a La Nina in a positive AMO era..but with a negative PDO... etc). Another example would be : the current list of Atlantic names has featured an active season the last several times it has been used--but clearly that is by chance.
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Re: Two years after El Nino's end...

#62 Postby Andrew92 » Wed Sep 20, 2017 8:05 pm

Dean_175 wrote:I think the only reason for this would be the state of ENSO two years after El Nino tends to be La Nina or neutral. I do not remember off the top of my head how La Nina impacts the probability of a landfall in the US- but if neutral or weak Nina increases that probability over moderate-strong Nina, that could be an answer- since the second year after El Nino tends to feature either neutral or a weaker La Nina than the previous (with many exceptions though).

I don't think that there is any more to it than that. Part of it may just be coincidental; If you look at meteorological statistics long enough, you will always eventually find random combination of variables that will correlate strongly(across some time range) to something by chance (ie. 2 years after a El Nino that followed a La Nina in a positive AMO era..but with a negative PDO... etc). Another example would be : the current list of Atlantic names has featured an active season the last several times it has been used--but clearly that is by chance.


That's a fair point, but the first year after is more hit-or-miss in that same regard. 2007 and 2010 both came off of El Nino's, and the US was largely spared the big storms those years. Last year did feature Matthew though, whose pressure still qualified even up into South Carolina. But 2008, 2011, and 2017 definitely saw all of those years have at least one big one in the US.

Also, 1979 and 2004 are examples I look at in this same spot that had warmer, Modoki profiles in the EPAC. The former was not far from being a traditional event as well. That didn't stop Frederic from reaching the Gulf coast, or the multiple Florida hits in 2004 (or David in the Caribbean).

Keep in mind too, 2000 was a solid La Nina, with very few US mainland threats as well. That was a longer period of time after the most recent El Nino, but it only enhances the mystery, in my opinion.

Why the second year after a traditional El Nino, every time? And why not always the first year after, or the third year, when conditions are otherwise favorable? There has to be something to this notion if the former has happened at least once in every example since the 1950s but the others have not, if you ask me.

-Andrew92
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Re: Two years after El Nino's end...

#63 Postby HurricaneRyan » Sun May 13, 2018 11:48 pm

This theory was pretty much proved right in 2017. If I may add on to this theory just a bit, I'd like to say that while the 2nd year after an El Nino will have a major US strike, the first year after an El Nino is one that the Caribbean, Central America, Cuba, Haiti, Canada and the other countries should keep watch. Aside from 1973 and 1984, every 1st year after an El Nino featured a major landfall in places outside the US, with 1959, 1995 and 2016 being the only ones to actually feature a major US landfall.

1 Year later
1957-1958: Gracie hits the uS
1965: Hurricane Inez devastates parts of the Caribbean
1968: Camille hits the US, plus Francelia kills over 200 in Central America
1972: None
1976-1977: Greta hits Central America
1982-1983: N/A
1986-1987: Gilbert and Joan, nuff said
1991-1994: Luis and Marilyn devastate the Islands while Roxanne causes damage in Mexico. Opal also hits the US as major hurricane
1997: Georges and Mitch - nuff said
2002: Fabian causes damage in Bermuda while Juan causes damage in Canada. Isabel also hits the US
2006: Dean and Felix both make landfalls at Category 5 intensity
2009: Igor hits Newfoundland badly and Tomas causes damage in St. Lucia
2015: Matthew hits Haiti and Cuba before heading into the US. Otto also causes damage in Costa Rica

Interestingly, 1969, 1988, 1998, 2003, 2007 and 2016 all featured Category 5 hurricanes one year after the end of an El Nino (although Camille occurred in a Modoki).
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Re: Two years after El Nino's end...

#64 Postby JPmia » Mon May 14, 2018 9:53 am

So this begs the question.. what happens 3 years after El Nino??
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Re: Two years after El Nino's end...

#65 Postby HurricaneRyan » Mon May 14, 2018 12:07 pm

JPmia wrote:So this begs the question.. what happens 3 years after El Nino??


From what I can tell, it's usually storms that recurve away from the US with very few land threats. 2000 and 2012 both represent this. 2000 had Keith and 2012 had Isaac and Sandy obviously.
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Re: Two years after El Nino's end...

#66 Postby HurricaneRyan » Mon May 14, 2018 12:38 pm

And Andrew92 already touched on this in one of the other threads.

Third years are pretty rare I think. As Andrew92 pointed out, we've only really seen it happen in 2000, 2012 and 1990.
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Re: Two years after El Nino's end...

#67 Postby NotSparta » Mon May 14, 2018 12:48 pm

HurricaneRyan wrote:And Andrew92 already touched on this in one of the other threads.

Third years are pretty rare I think. As Andrew92 pointed out, we've only really seen it happen in 2000, 2012 and 1990.


Most of them have high storm count, but with weaker systems.
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Re: Two years after El Nino's end...

#68 Postby Andrew92 » Wed May 30, 2018 1:15 am

Can't believe I've missed this! But been busy with other matters. In anay event.....

Three years after an El Nino, a major hit in the US is rare. It has only happened in three such hurricane seasons: 1950 with both Easy and King (may be fourth year or later too!), 1975 with Eloise, and 2012 with Sandy (more non-tropical when it hit anyway).

To corroborate NotSparta, 1990 and 2012 were indeed busy, as was 2000, which also fell in this spot. 1981 was another such year that was busier than normal when you consider the overall inactive Atlantic phase. But while lots of storms form, few get really powerful. 1981 had three majors, 1990 one (for less than 24 hours, I might add), 2000 three, and 2012 two.

There can often be one sizable threat though. I mentioned 1950, but also 1956 had Betsy, 1971 had Edith, 1990 had Diana, 2000 had Keith, and 2012 had Sandy. US landfalls are iffy though. Besides the big four I mentioned, there were Flossy in 1956, Edith in 1971, Fern in 1971, for now Ginger in 1971 (on my list of storms that may get downgraded though), and Isaac in 2012. Yes, Isaac was the first US landfalling hurricane three years after an El Nino in 37 years! Gordon in 2000 was awfully close though.

As for 1975? As Hurricane Ryan mentioned, 1973 was one such first-year-after with no really big threatening storm in the tropics south of 20 degrees. The only other such year was 1984 (if you consider a warm EPAC MDR in 1983 as being essentially an El Nino). One must remember that the Atlantic was colder overall than since 1988, since maybe the mechanics were a little messed up and delayed the process. Of course, Carmen still hit in 1974 and both Elena and Gloria in 1985. Does that explain though how Eloise made the Gulf Coast as a powerful hurricane? Caroline and Gladys were plenty big threats too that year; the former hit just south of the border as a major in fact.

1962 was also three years after an El Nino if you consider 1959's EPAC MDR as behaving like an El Nino as well, like 1983. That year had very little threats to speak of. Daisy in Maine and Canada?

The Atlantic seems cooler this year though, and the threats don't seem to be lining up like in the last couple years. I can see a somewhat busy season, but low-quality with no more than one or two big threats. Hopefully there is a much-needed break after last year.

At least 2018 isn't a second year after though!!!

-Andrew92
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Re: Two years after El Nino's end...

#69 Postby LarryWx » Wed May 30, 2018 1:59 am

Andrew92 wrote:Can't believe I've missed this! But been busy with other matters. In anay event.....

Three years after an El Nino, a major hit in the US is rare. It has only happened in three such hurricane seasons: 1950 with both Easy and King (may be fourth year or later too!), 1975 with Eloise, and 2012 with Sandy (more non-tropical when it hit anyway).

To corroborate NotSparta, 1990 and 2012 were indeed busy, as was 2000, which also fell in this spot. 1981 was another such year that was busier than normal when you consider the overall inactive Atlantic phase. But while lots of storms form, few get really powerful. 1981 had three majors, 1990 one (for less than 24 hours, I might add), 2000 three, and 2012 two.

There can often be one sizable threat though. I mentioned 1950, but also 1956 had Betsy, 1971 had Edith, 1990 had Diana, 2000 had Keith, and 2012 had Sandy. US landfalls are iffy though. Besides the big four I mentioned, there were Flossy in 1956, Edith in 1971, Fern in 1971, for now Ginger in 1971 (on my list of storms that may get downgraded though), and Isaac in 2012. Yes, Isaac was the first US landfalling hurricane three years after an El Nino in 37 years! Gordon in 2000 was awfully close though.

As for 1975? As Hurricane Ryan mentioned, 1973 was one such first-year-after with no really big threatening storm in the tropics south of 20 degrees. The only other such year was 1984 (if you consider a warm EPAC MDR in 1983 as being essentially an El Nino). One must remember that the Atlantic was colder overall than since 1988, since maybe the mechanics were a little messed up and delayed the process. Of course, Carmen still hit in 1974 and both Elena and Gloria in 1985. Does that explain though how Eloise made the Gulf Coast as a powerful hurricane? Caroline and Gladys were plenty big threats too that year; the former hit just south of the border as a major in fact.

1962 was also three years after an El Nino if you consider 1959's EPAC MDR as behaving like an El Nino as well, like 1983. That year had very little threats to speak of. Daisy in Maine and Canada?

The Atlantic seems cooler this year though, and the threats don't seem to be lining up like in the last couple years. I can see a somewhat busy season, but low-quality with no more than one or two big threats. Hopefully there is a much-needed break after last year.

At least 2018 isn't a second year after though!!!

-Andrew92


Interesting stuff! I know of El Niño's before 1951-2 and would love to see your 3rd year after El Niño analysis going back further if you're interested and have time. Actually, 1950 was a whopping 9 years after the prior El Niño! Here are some older ones:

1941-2, 1940-1, 1939-40, 1930-1, 1929-30, 1925-6, 1923-4, 1918-9, 1914-5, 1913-4, 1911-2, 1905-6, 1904-5, 1902-3, 1900-1, 1899-00, 1896-7, 1888-9, 1887-8, 1885-6, 1884-5, 1880-1, 1877-8, 1876-7, 1868-9, 1867-8, 1865-6, and 1864-5.
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Re: Two years after El Nino's end...

#70 Postby chaser1 » Wed May 30, 2018 9:20 am

Andrew92 wrote:Can't believe I've missed this! But been busy with other matters. In anay event.....

Three years after an El Nino, a major hit in the US is rare. It has only happened in three such hurricane seasons: 1950 with both Easy and King (may be fourth year or later too!), 1975 with Eloise, and 2012 with Sandy (more non-tropical when it hit anyway).

To corroborate NotSparta, 1990 and 2012 were indeed busy, as was 2000, which also fell in this spot. 1981 was another such year that was busier than normal when you consider the overall inactive Atlantic phase. But while lots of storms form, few get really powerful. 1981 had three majors, 1990 one (for less than 24 hours, I might add), 2000 three, and 2012 two.

There can often be one sizable threat though. I mentioned 1950, but also 1956 had Betsy, 1971 had Edith, 1990 had Diana, 2000 had Keith, and 2012 had Sandy. US landfalls are iffy though. Besides the big four I mentioned, there were Flossy in 1956, Edith in 1971, Fern in 1971, for now Ginger in 1971 (on my list of storms that may get downgraded though), and Isaac in 2012. Yes, Isaac was the first US landfalling hurricane three years after an El Nino in 37 years! Gordon in 2000 was awfully close though.

As for 1975? As Hurricane Ryan mentioned, 1973 was one such first-year-after with no really big threatening storm in the tropics south of 20 degrees. The only other such year was 1984 (if you consider a warm EPAC MDR in 1983 as being essentially an El Nino). One must remember that the Atlantic was colder overall than since 1988, since maybe the mechanics were a little messed up and delayed the process. Of course, Carmen still hit in 1974 and both Elena and Gloria in 1985. Does that explain though how Eloise made the Gulf Coast as a powerful hurricane? Caroline and Gladys were plenty big threats too that year; the former hit just south of the border as a major in fact.

1962 was also three years after an El Nino if you consider 1959's EPAC MDR as behaving like an El Nino as well, like 1983. That year had very little threats to speak of. Daisy in Maine and Canada?

The Atlantic seems cooler this year though, and the threats don't seem to be lining up like in the last couple years. I can see a somewhat busy season, but low-quality with no more than one or two big threats. Hopefully there is a much-needed break after last year.

At least 2018 isn't a second year after though!!!

-Andrew92


Great stuff Andrew! I always enjoy reading the data you've accumulated and your reasoning. My thoughts are generally in-line with your own though I'm teetering toward the idea that this season might not be far from the average in terms of number of storms. From my perspective there seems to be an unusually strong 200mb flow over the tropics not associated with any El Nino, yet a pattern like every years where tropical formation will be focused where conditions permit. I'm a strong believer in persistence and while still only in late May and seemingly plenty of time for Spring/Summer patterns to evolve further, am beginning to consider that strong 500mb-850mb flow in the deep tropics exacerbated by cooler than normal SST's will significantly impair cyclongenesis farther east. Throwing in the potential for less then conducive upper level conditions throughout much of the Caribbean and suppressed sinking just north of the Caribbean given the much higher than normal SST's in the W. Atlantic higher latitudes, and this may in fact turn out to be a sputtering type of season where development as well as storm intensity may well be hindered by a variety of conditions. The only point where my own thinking diverts from the pretty clear analysis that your research clearly shows, is that I do think that this year might prove to be a good deal more "pesky" in terms of U.S. threats and impact. Unscientific as it may be, I keenly believe that outside of obvious and more basin wide or global scale scale contributing conditions (moderate to strong El Nino, excessive SAL, volcanic particulates, or unusually cool SST's) that smaller pockets of favorable conditions will still remain and that will prove to be those origins of primary development. This may well include portions of the N. Central Atlantic ( potentially impacting the Azores), but i'm thinking that the W. Caribbean and S. Gulf might also be focus regions for development as well. If I'm right, that might result in a fair number of primarily low magnitude threats to W. Cuba, W. Coast Florida & Keys, the Bahamas,and the N. Gulf Coast. In my mind this could potentially spell 3-5 T.S. or hurricane threats. This could also be that year where a relative small window along with high octane SST's further north along the CONUS seaboard might usher in one or two of the season's greater threats to the mid to N.E. Seaboard areas.
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Re: Two years after El Nino's end...

#71 Postby Andrew92 » Wed May 30, 2018 9:45 am

Larry, I definitely will explore some of those years following older El Nino's hopefully this weekend. I've always had a more difficult time with before 1948, because I like to see a full EPAC profile. Although rare, you have to account that a year like 1959 can come around that shows La Nina full well at the Equator, but has a warm MDR and as such remains favorable for powerful hurricanes there. The tropical Atlantic really struggled that year, though Gracie still hit as a major in South Carolina. 1983 and 1992 also had similar RPAC profiles, possibly 1985 as well. Still, I'm sure I can come up with my own thoughts, though there might be a lot more conjecture than normal.

Chaser1, I am definitely not ruling out pockets of favorability, and Alberto has shown that there will probably be some storms threatening later on as well. The simple fact though is that majors struggle more often than not to reach that US, and the Atlantic probably has to warm a little more for another really scary year. I'm not ruling it out though either. After all, I thought 2016 would be less active due to a warm EPAC MDR even with El Nino fading. Then the PDO collapsed , Matthew took off, and the rest is history. The message is the same I say every year: it only takes one, so don't let your guard down! Good points all around!

-Andrew92
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Re: Two years after El Nino's end...

#72 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Jul 18, 2018 10:36 am

This may be somewhat off topic, but it could apply to this discussion: I have noticed that the tracks of the first few storms of each season often give some indication as to the prevailing steering patterns. In 2017, based on the tracks of the first three systems, I looked at past seasons for similar early paths. Based on the most similar years, I privately concluded that Florida and the Gulf would be probable targets. This turned out to be the case. Based on the early tracks in 2018, I think we may see steering patterns rather similar to those in 1863, to cite one possible analog. 1863 featured a number of systems that tracked close to but just offshore of the U.S. East Coast, often between the U.S. and Bermuda, coming closest to the Outer Banks. A few systems also impacted the Bay of Campeche and the western Gulf. Additionally, the recently documented Hurricane Amanda in May took a very similar track to that of this year's Alberto. To me, the data suggest that the Bay of Campeche, western Gulf, and Outer Banks may be at greatest risk in 2018, along with Bermuda and the Canadian Maritimes.
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