ATL Invest 91L: Models

All past storm threads will be archived here by year.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Siker
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 742
Age: 21
Joined: Thu Oct 25, 2012 7:36 pm
Location: New Orleans, LA / Williamstown, MA

ATL Invest 91L: Models

#1 Postby Siker » Tue Jun 12, 2018 11:09 am

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 27 27 28 27 24 24 27 27 30 30
V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 27 27 28 27 24 24 27 27 26 26
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 26 24 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 26 20 24 31 31 33 36 30 21 22 28 30 20
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 10 7 6 -4 3 -2 0 1 0 -3 -4
SHEAR DIR 242 241 237 256 269 272 289 278 271 281 323 319 324
SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.8 29.0 28.4 27.2 24.3
POT. INT. (KT) 136 139 139 138 137 145 145 144 150 154 145 128 101
ADJ. POT. INT. 132 134 134 133 132 138 136 134 140 142 132 114 89
200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.6 -54.4 -54.8 -55.1 -54.4 -55.2 -54.8 -55.3 -54.1 -53.7 -52.3 -51.5
200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -1.1 -0.6 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3
TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 10 10 9 10 8 9 8 9 8 11 9
700-500 MB RH 70 68 66 65 66 71 73 74 71 65 59 64 60
MODEL VTX (KT) 4 6 7 7 6 6 6 4 5 6 6 6 6
850 MB ENV VOR 23 16 20 9 0 -3 -35 -34 -21 -6 -14 19 14
200 MB DIV 24 36 52 36 29 48 45 31 27 9 -14 5 28
700-850 TADV 8 8 8 9 15 8 0 1 -5 3 -6 25 -4
LAND (KM) 262 183 143 158 201 277 93 167 426 314 33 -286 -571
LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.4 15.3 16.2 17.2 19.3 21.2 23.1 25.1 26.8 28.3 29.9 31.8
LONG(DEG W) 80.8 81.5 81.9 82.4 83.0 84.4 86.0 87.8 89.9 92.7 96.0 98.9 100.9
STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 12 12 12 13 15 16 16 14 13
HEAT CONTENT 14 12 14 16 22 46 41 21 29 29 11 0 0
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman22
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 641
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2006 12:39 am
Location: Houston,Tx
Contact:

Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#2 Postby wxman22 » Tue Jun 12, 2018 11:25 am

The CMC shows it reaching tropical storm strength fwiw.

Image

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5535
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#3 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Jun 12, 2018 12:32 pm

No model support, next!
1 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6960
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#4 Postby Alyono » Tue Jun 12, 2018 12:44 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:No model support, next!


Fake news
8 likes   

ForexTidbits
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 194
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2018 1:46 pm
Location: Houston TX

ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

#5 Postby ForexTidbits » Tue Jun 12, 2018 12:49 pm

Invest 91L

Image

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Tireman4
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5335
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:08 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#6 Postby Tireman4 » Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:08 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:No model support, next!


Goodness.....Way too early to say that sir...................
0 likes   

Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6229
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#7 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:15 pm

Who needs model support these days anyway? A week ago or so only GFS showed anything of significance brewing this upcoming
weekend. We've seen the models lay eggs many times before in the past in both extremes so nothing surprises me. IMO
3 likes   

User avatar
Tireman4
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5335
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:08 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#8 Postby Tireman4 » Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:22 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Who needs model support these days anyway? A week ago or so only GFS showed anything of significance brewing this upcoming
weekend. We've seen the models lay eggs many times before in the past in both extremes so nothing surprises me. IMO


Hurricane Bud, perhaps..was it not forecasted to be a Cat 1...was it not a Cat 4 at one time?
1 likes   

jaguars_22
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 181
Joined: Tue Jun 20, 2017 2:26 pm

Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#9 Postby jaguars_22 » Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:26 pm

UHH I witnessed first hand.... All the meterologists saying Harvey will only be a strong tropical storm for Texas... Then it was oh it could make a run at cat 1 strength... few hours later this thing is getting its act together quickly maybe a cat 2 or 3 at landfall... final outtake Cat 4 landfall... so anything can happen we have no control over it at all... oh and to add it was only 300 miles off texas coast when they were saying these things...
5 likes   

User avatar
AnnularCane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1465
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
Location: Wytheville, VA

Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#10 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:31 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:UHH I witnessed first hand.... All the meterologists saying Harvey will only be a strong tropical storm for Texas... Then it was oh it could make a run at cat 1 strength... few hours later this thing is getting its act together quickly maybe a cat 2 or 3 at landfall... final outtake Cat 4 landfall... so anything can happen we have no control over it at all... oh and to add it was only 300 miles off texas coast when they were saying these things...


Never trust the Gulf!

Not that every storm down there will blow up into a major, of course, but I've seen quite a few of them pull such surprises. I remember almost expecting Katrina to become a Cat 5.
2 likes   

User avatar
Tireman4
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5335
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:08 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#11 Postby Tireman4 » Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:33 pm

AnnularCane wrote:
jaguars_22 wrote:UHH I witnessed first hand.... All the meterologists saying Harvey will only be a strong tropical storm for Texas... Then it was oh it could make a run at cat 1 strength... few hours later this thing is getting its act together quickly maybe a cat 2 or 3 at landfall... final outtake Cat 4 landfall... so anything can happen we have no control over it at all... oh and to add it was only 300 miles off texas coast when they were saying these things...


Never trust the Gulf!

Not that every storm down there will blow up into a major, of course, but I've seen quite a few of them pull such surprises. I remember almost expecting Katrina to become a Cat 5.


Humberto..as well :)
1 likes   

User avatar
mcheer23
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 340
Age: 25
Joined: Sun Jun 24, 2012 8:24 pm
Location: Missouri City, Texas ✈ Mobile, Alabama

Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#12 Postby mcheer23 » Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:54 pm

Waiting for the 18z early models to show up on the SFWMD website....
0 likes   

User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3478
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#13 Postby Nimbus » Tue Jun 12, 2018 4:11 pm

Looking at the early deep level steering it appears they expect some ridging to be in place over the northern gulf? On the other hand if this remains a sheared system and moves fairly quickly inland maybe there won't be a lot of 7" plus rainfall totals?



Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5986
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: NOT a State-caster

Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#14 Postby Steve » Tue Jun 12, 2018 4:15 pm

AnnularCane wrote:
jaguars_22 wrote:UHH I witnessed first hand.... All the meterologists saying Harvey will only be a strong tropical storm for Texas... Then it was oh it could make a run at cat 1 strength... few hours later this thing is getting its act together quickly maybe a cat 2 or 3 at landfall... final outtake Cat 4 landfall... so anything can happen we have no control over it at all... oh and to add it was only 300 miles off texas coast when they were saying these things...


Never trust the Gulf!

Not that every storm down there will blow up into a major, of course, but I've seen quite a few of them pull such surprises. I remember almost expecting Katrina to become a Cat 5.


It did only to relax back to Cat 4/3 landfalls with Cat 5 type surge. I don’t see 91L getting super strong but you never know for sure.

All major MJO guidance gets to Phase 2 in several to ten days. Could be a lot of instability around the SE for a few days regardless of 91L. It will be cool to see how it plays out this weekend into early next week. JMA is most direct and quickest to get there. NCEP’s forecast is fairly close to JMA model touch JMAN for output).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... .shtml#for
1 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5535
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#15 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:05 am

Latest 00z Euro Ensembles are slightly more bullish but still look hostile for much development if any at all.

Image
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5986
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: NOT a State-caster

Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#16 Postby Steve » Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:47 am

12Z NAM wants to still close this off in the Western Gulf.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 61312&fh=0
0 likes   

jaguars_22
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 181
Joined: Tue Jun 20, 2017 2:26 pm

Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#17 Postby jaguars_22 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:53 am

It has the west side of the closed low dry... Also looks to head up more towards houston...
0 likes   

jaguars_22
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 181
Joined: Tue Jun 20, 2017 2:26 pm

Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#18 Postby jaguars_22 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:38 am

The ICON model is drunk. It keeps the low off Texas coast until Tuesday and slowly strengthens it... :)
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114782
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

#19 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:15 pm

@RyanMaue
Seems the experts that were warning about the GFS "false-alarm" hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico were right. Or, you could have just looked at the answer key. (e.g. ECMWF)
6 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6960
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

#20 Postby Alyono » Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:31 pm

cycloneye wrote:@RyanMaue
Seems the experts that were warning about the GFS "false-alarm" hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico were right. Or, you could have just looked at the answer key. (e.g. ECMWF)


Maue and his horn tooting are getting annoying

How about he explain the clear phantom his favorite EC spewed off of the East Coast
7 likes   


Return to “Storm Archives”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest