ATL Invest 91L: Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
jaguars_22
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 493
Joined: Tue Jun 20, 2017 2:26 pm

Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#81 Postby jaguars_22 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 3:58 pm

If it were to verify what would the winds be... with 1003 pressure... i know its the NAM but :)
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman22
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 825
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2006 12:39 am
Location: Houston,Tx
Contact:

Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#82 Postby wxman22 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 3:59 pm

NAM shows most of the moisture on the east side of the system fwiw, producing what looks to be feeder bands across Southeast Texas and Southcentral Texas.

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8604
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#83 Postby Steve » Thu Jun 14, 2018 4:47 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:If it were to verify what would the winds be... with 1003 pressure... i know its the NAM but :)


Run lower dynamics and look at 10 meters. Shows some gales north and east of the center offshore. So 30’s/40’s and maybe some gusts into the low 50’s well offshore in the storms. I don’t know what the generic conversion is from 33 feet to sea level. It’s probably 15-20%?
0 likes   

EasyTiger
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 54
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2011 8:42 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#84 Postby EasyTiger » Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:25 pm

I'm not sure what's better; having a crazy girlfriend or following invests. I'm beginning to think I'll take a solo night at the bar instead.
4 likes   

User avatar
Rgv20
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2456
Age: 37
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 5:42 pm
Location: Edinburg/McAllen Tx

Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#85 Postby Rgv20 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:07 pm

A few of the 12zECMWF Ensemble Members are forecasting some really high rainfall totals for South Texas. They seem to slow down the disturbance as it approaches the NE Mexican/South Texas Coast. For what is worth the ICON has also been showing this for the past few run, just something to keep an eye out.
4 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

stormreader
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1242
Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2011 10:58 am

Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#86 Postby stormreader » Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:49 pm

Rgv20 wrote:A few of the 12zECMWF Ensemble Members are forecasting some really high rainfall totals for South Texas. They seem to slow down the disturbance as it approaches the NE Mexican/South Texas Coast. For what is worth the ICON has also been showing this for the past few run, just something to keep an eye out.


Yeah, let’s hope for a lot of rain, but not flooding rains. Right now model forecasts of 8-10 inches are very significant totals. And I have seen some hope for those rains. My best guess is that south Texas will be ok. But seems like model forecasts are trending higher, and folks might be cutting it kind of close.
2 likes   

User avatar
Clearcloudz
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 523
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2018 1:46 pm
Location: Rosenberg TX

Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#87 Postby Clearcloudz » Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:15 pm

Rgv20 wrote:A few of the 12zECMWF Ensemble Members are forecasting some really high rainfall totals for South Texas. They seem to slow down the disturbance as it approaches the NE Mexican/South Texas Coast. For what is worth the ICON has also been showing this for the past few run, just something to keep an eye out.



I've started to notice that as well and you can also see before the models were moving out the rain by Tuesday but now rain continues through Tuesday and even Wednesday. EURO still might be overdoing the rain a little in my opinion due to complexities in the atmosphere its hard to say this far out what type of mesoscale features will setup when this disturbance moves through. Expect rain totals on the models to jump around from model to model runs.
1 likes   

User avatar
Haris
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1808
Joined: Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:19 pm
Location: ( Bee Cave) West Austin, Texas

Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#88 Postby Haris » Thu Jun 14, 2018 10:39 pm

ICON stalls the storm in S TX then drenched Central TX with feeder bands
4 likes   
Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!

Weather150
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 190
Joined: Fri Jul 07, 2017 7:46 pm

Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#89 Postby Weather150 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:00 pm

00z GFS has a just a disturbance still making an impact on Texas, while 00z CMC closes off a low pressure system at 42 hours.
1 likes   

Nederlander
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1171
Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2008 4:28 pm
Location: Nederland, TX

Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#90 Postby Nederlander » Fri Jun 15, 2018 6:34 am

GFS and CMC both show another system in the WGOM in the 10 day range. GFS is more S.TX/MX while the CMC points toward the LA coast.
1 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#91 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Jun 15, 2018 6:42 am

Nederlander wrote:GFS and CMC both show another system in the WGOM in the 10 day range. GFS is more S.TX/MX while the CMC points toward the LA coast.

I saw that on the GFS, believe it when I see it! Or at least when when others like the Euro and UKMET jump on board.
2 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8604
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#92 Postby Steve » Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:08 am

91L lost most of the model support last night, so you have to think chances of anything classified went down (as reflected by the NHC not expecting tropical development next 5 days). It shouldn't matter as gales should still be over the NC/NW Gulf, and there could be lots of rainfall. Trailing convection on the east side of the Yucatan which has been blowing up overnight is getting slammed from the rear and overtaken by a blast of Saharan dust that's easily visible on satellite. Still a remote chance for something organized, but I wouldn't bet on it. Look for lots of rain on the Texas coast.
0 likes   

Weather150
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 190
Joined: Fri Jul 07, 2017 7:46 pm

Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#93 Postby Weather150 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:40 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
Nederlander wrote:GFS and CMC both show another system in the WGOM in the 10 day range. GFS is more S.TX/MX while the CMC points toward the LA coast.

I saw that on the GFS, believe it when I see it! Or at least when when others like the Euro and UKMET jump on board.

Yep, when I read 10 days I was like, nope.
0 likes   

User avatar
Clearcloudz
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 523
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2018 1:46 pm
Location: Rosenberg TX

Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#94 Postby Clearcloudz » Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:14 am

2nd Tropical wave is flaring up today and latest convection will prompt national hurricane center to start paying close attention as the environment will become more conductive potentially for development once it reaches the gulf of mexico.

The pattern looks very complex and I think for that reason the models are having a hard time figuring it out.

Image

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Haris
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1808
Joined: Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:19 pm
Location: ( Bee Cave) West Austin, Texas

Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#95 Postby Haris » Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:20 am

I don’t care anymore what happens after this week .

Both models now show less than 1” here in Central TX after teasing me for several days!

I quit . Let the drought worsen ! SMDH
1 likes   
Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!

User avatar
Clearcloudz
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 523
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2018 1:46 pm
Location: Rosenberg TX

Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#96 Postby Clearcloudz » Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:31 am

CMC seems to want to develop the 2nd tropical wave slowly into a potential depression or tropical storm. Interesting to see if NHC puts a 10 to 20 Percent X on it soon.

GFS showed development yesterday but has backed off in the latest run.

The complexity continues......

Image
Last edited by Clearcloudz on Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

jaguars_22
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 493
Joined: Tue Jun 20, 2017 2:26 pm

Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#97 Postby jaguars_22 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:32 am

the curvature looks good on satelite. Invest coming soon if this keeps popping. Im tired of surprises :)
1 likes   

User avatar
Clearcloudz
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 523
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2018 1:46 pm
Location: Rosenberg TX

Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#98 Postby Clearcloudz » Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:35 am

jaguars_22 wrote:the curvature looks good on satelite. Invest coming soon if this keeps popping. Im tired of surprises :)


It will be interesting to see what the EURO does...
0 likes   

EasyTiger
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 54
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2011 8:42 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#99 Postby EasyTiger » Fri Jun 15, 2018 12:59 pm

Image
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19138
Age: 60
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#100 Postby tolakram » Fri Jun 15, 2018 1:27 pm

The thread for the NW Caribbean disturbance is here: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119635
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.


Return to “2018”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 22 guests