Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf/Texas

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Kazmit
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#81 Postby Kazmit » Sat Jun 16, 2018 7:45 am

Shear doesn't look like it'll be an issue for now...

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I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

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NDG
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#82 Postby NDG » Sat Jun 16, 2018 7:47 am

Saved vis loop, nice inflow into the storms from the Caribbean. Slight circulation is all in the mid levels.

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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#83 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Jun 16, 2018 7:53 am

:uarrow: :uarrow: Definitely see a good wave sharpening in the LL cumulus in the NW Carib. Sea. I don't think it will take much longer today and we see a surface LLC if this convection keeps up.
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#84 Postby Siker » Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:01 am

Looks like whatever the Euro is trying to develop is energy dragged North with this wave but left in the BoC, combined with some of Carlotta’s energy.
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#85 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:08 am

With shear decreasing in its path I’m surprised no model really develops this. 10% seems kind of low, I’d go with 20% for now on development chances. Looks Invest worthy if you ask me.
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#86 Postby stormlover2013 » Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:12 am

Should be a invest no doubt
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#87 Postby EasyTiger » Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:21 am

GFS from last Sunday's 06Z run...not bad

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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#88 Postby wxman57 » Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:21 am

Euro ensembles say 8% chance of development next 3-5 days. GFS ensembles at 0%. It is more "blobby" today (that's a technical meteorological term). Something to keep an eye on, but not much model support.
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#89 Postby stormreader » Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:25 am

EasyTiger wrote:GFS from last Sunday's 06Z run...not bad

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_23.png


Not bad at all!
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#90 Postby stormreader » Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:32 am

TheStormExpert wrote:With shear decreasing in its path I’m surprised no model really develops this. 10% seems kind of low, I’d go with 20% for now on development chances. Looks Invest worthy if you ask me.


Think so, too. Looks impressive, but apparently all the numbers fed into the models used by the Mets say very little to no chance. NHC says 90% chance of no cyclone formation. That’s pretty strong. I guess if you were at the racetrack and you bet in favor of formation you would get 9-1 odds on your bet.
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#91 Postby NDG » Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:47 am

Nice mid level circuation, it will be interesting if a surface circulation forms near this later today.

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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#92 Postby tailgater » Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:48 am

stormreader wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:With shear decreasing in its path I’m surprised no model really develops this. 10% seems kind of low, I’d go with 20% for now on development chances. Looks Invest worthy if you ask me.


Think so, too. Looks impressive, but apparently all the numbers fed into the models used by the Mets say very little to no chance. NHC says 90% chance of no cyclone formation. That’s pretty strong. I guess if you were at the racetrack and you bet in favor of formation you would get 9-1 odds on your bet.


I'll take that bet and you're gonna reget cuz I'm the best there's ...... Ha ha I'm sleep deprived.
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#93 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:54 am

Yeah not much Euro Ensemble support for this as Wxman57 said. Here are the 00z Euro Ensembles through 72hrs. (excluding the longer range stuff)

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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#94 Postby stormreader » Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:56 am

tailgater wrote:
stormreader wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:With shear decreasing in its path I’m surprised no model really develops this. 10% seems kind of low, I’d go with 20% for now on development chances. Looks Invest worthy if you ask me.


Think so, too. Looks impressive, but apparently all the numbers fed into the models used by the Mets say very little to no chance. NHC says 90% chance of no cyclone formation. That’s pretty strong. I guess if you were at the racetrack and you bet in favor of formation you would get 9-1 odds on your bet.


I'll take that bet and you're gonna reget cuz I'm the best there's ...... Ha ha I'm sleep deprived.

Don't blame you at all for that bet! You really like the look of that horse, and you don't get 9-1 everyday. Good luck!
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#95 Postby latitude_20 » Sat Jun 16, 2018 9:31 am

Greetings from Tulum, Mexico. Day 4 of rolling thunder, pouring rain. 6 power outages in the last 2 hours. And they ask me why I drink.

But seriously, is it me or does this thing look like it should at least be an invest?

Lat20
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#96 Postby stormlover2013 » Sat Jun 16, 2018 9:52 am

The nam is following the icon foot steps
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#97 Postby Siker » Sat Jun 16, 2018 10:02 am

ICON is more organized this run, sending a broad 1007mb TD into Matagorda Bay.
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#98 Postby Clearcloudz » Sat Jun 16, 2018 10:10 am

Could the GFS be right 2 weeks ago about a hurricane forming in the gulf??? Only time will tell....

Give me INVEST 92L already

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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#99 Postby Nimbus » Sat Jun 16, 2018 10:20 am

The high cirrus clouds are streaming a little more slowly in the familiar concentric pattern that often indicates higher pressure might be developing mid gulf. Most of the trough circulation is likely still WNW of the shear induced convection.
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Re: NW Carib Flare-Up

#100 Postby Haris » Sat Jun 16, 2018 10:26 am

the fact nam is going to icon and their entire camp makes me soo anxious ! model war !!!!
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