Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf/Texas

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MGC
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#381 Postby MGC » Mon Jun 18, 2018 6:27 pm

Noticeable spin on the Corpus radar. Could be have another Humberto situation developing?.....MGC
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#382 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Jun 18, 2018 6:45 pm

I say they raise development chances to 20% @ 8pm, but no higher.

EDIT: Nevermind, they stay @ 10%.
Last edited by TheStormExpert on Mon Jun 18, 2018 6:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#383 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 18, 2018 6:46 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Surface observations and WSR-88D Doppler radar data indicate that
a surface trough associated with a mid- and upper-level low
pressure system has remained stationary near the Texas coast during
the day. This system continues to produce a widespread area of
cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms, accompanied
by strong gusty winds, over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Heavy
rainfall and flash flooding across portions of southern and
southeastern Texas are likely to continue during the next few days.
For more details on this disturbance and the threat for heavy
rainfall, please see products issued by your local weather office
and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#384 Postby davidiowx » Mon Jun 18, 2018 6:59 pm

Jeeze, it’s looking like Beaumont area may be in for a long night. I’ve been watching the radar all day and when I left work it was just a train still continuing to roll through there. While again now, it appears it wants to continue dumping over that area..
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#385 Postby Steve » Mon Jun 18, 2018 7:03 pm

Looks like a couple more inches at least are headed up toward the Triangle in the next couple of hours. If those storms continue to fire offshore, they will get at least a bit into Texas before ramping down as they get further inland and night falls. Definite situation for low lying areas thus the continuation of the flash flood warning until 10:00

https://www.weather.gov/lch/

We got a bit over an inch here in New Orleans as two bands came through today. We didn’t get any rain from the early am band here but there was a morning thunderstorm between that and the second one. Looks like only spotty storms are firing offshore of SELA, so the majority of the action should remain to our west and southwest.
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#386 Postby jaguars_22 » Mon Jun 18, 2018 7:07 pm

Why has the central coast of Texas been dry slotted??
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#387 Postby Haris » Mon Jun 18, 2018 7:08 pm

Steve wrote:Looks like a couple more inches at least are headed up toward the Triangle in the next couple of hours. If those storms continue to fire offshore, they will get at least a bit into Texas before ramping down as they get further inland and night falls. Definite situation for low lying areas thus the continuation of the flash flood warning until 10:00

https://www.weather.gov/lch/

We got a bit over an inch here in New Orleans as two bands came through today. We didn’t get any rain from the early am band here but there was a morning thunderstorm between that and the second one. Looks like only spotty storms are firing offshore of SELA, so the majority of the action should remain to our west and southwest.


Any better idea on Austin TX today? Think we get 2-4
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#388 Postby Steve » Mon Jun 18, 2018 7:33 pm

No. I haven’t looked that far inland. I think it’s going to be a matter of whether or not the low is on or offshore as it deepens and where it moves. I think if upper conditions continue to improve and the storm moves 100 miles inland or so, you’d be NW but getting feeder moisture from the east and ese. You’d assume most of the heaviest rain would be in the daytime there as well. But if the focusing mechanism (center?) stays offshore, it’s just going to depend on how far inland storms get each day. So you may be right with 2-4” for the event, but obviously it could be 6 or even 10” if the low pressure is slow to move out or wind down (and if it would be to your s/se/sw)
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#389 Postby wxGuy » Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:01 pm

Rode around Beaumont today and there were already streets flooding in some areas. One of our main drainage ditches that was bone dry few days ago, is almost totally full now, this is like one of those huge concrete drainage ditches, not no little swale ditch. Anyways, we have been receiving copious amounts of rainfall steady all day it seems, moderate rainfall, then heavy downpours for 30min straight, off and on. Filled up a gallon bucket in my back yard. I know this because it was empty before this rain started. :eek:

Looking at the HRRR, I expect more moisture moving in about midnight - 4am, could be some 1-3in per hour downpours, grabbing my rubber boots & a poncho. :lol:
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#390 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:14 pm

MGC wrote:Noticeable spin on the Corpus radar. Could be have another Humberto situation developing?.....MGC


No rotation at the surface. Wave axis is now inland. I measured 0.12" of rain in SW Houston. Not quite the extreme amounts the HRRR was predicting for Houston. I see reports of up to 3.28" in far eastern Harris County northeast of Baytown. Hard to predict where the heavier storms will form with such a disorganized system. Tomorrow could be my day for heavy rain.
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#391 Postby sphelps8681 » Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:27 pm

wxGuy wrote:Rode around Beaumont today and there were already streets flooding in some areas. One of our main drainage ditches that was bone dry few days ago, is almost totally full now, this is like one of those huge concrete drainage ditches, not no little swale ditch. Anyways, we have been receiving copious amounts of rainfall steady all day it seems, moderate rainfall, then heavy downpours for 30min straight, off and on. Filled up a gallon bucket in my back yard. I know this because it was empty before this rain started. :eek:

Looking at the HRRR, I expect more moisture moving in about midnight - 4am, could be some 1-3in per hour downpours, grabbing my rubber boots & a poncho. :lol:


Same here in Lumberton, Tx. Been on and off rain since about 11:00am. Heaviest downpours (very tropical) this afternoon. I am thinking at least 3-4 in today maybe more.
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#392 Postby galvbay » Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:27 pm

1.20” at Smith Point-East Chambers County since midnight.
It’s been so dry here you can’t tell it’s rain at all. Zero standing water...ditches are dry. Tide has come up a little.
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#393 Postby Haris » Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:28 pm

Steve wrote:No. I haven’t looked that far inland. I think it’s going to be a matter of whether or not the low is on or offshore as it deepens and where it moves. I think if upper conditions continue to improve and the storm moves 100 miles inland or so, you’d be NW but getting feeder moisture from the east and ese. You’d assume most of the heaviest rain would be in the daytime there as well. But if the focusing mechanism (center?) stays offshore, it’s just going to depend on how far inland storms get each day. So you may be right with 2-4” for the event, but obviously it could be 6 or even 10” if the low pressure is slow to move out or wind down (and if it would be to your s/se/sw)



Thank you as always
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#394 Postby wxGuy » Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:45 pm

http://www.dd6.org/rainfall-elevations/maps/rainfall-data-map here is our rainfall data for dd6 in jefferson county
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#395 Postby jasons2k » Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:46 pm

It's been breezy here today -- more than I expected. The airmass has been very tropical. It has that 'feel' of a storm brewing in the gulf with the wind and the moisture.

I had about an inch of rain yesterday, and another quarter of an inch today. I was expecting more today than what I got, but so it goes...

I'm keeping a close watch for sure. It won't take much to setup training, flooding bands over SE Texas.
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#396 Postby wxGuy » Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:46 pm

6.97" recorded at the coast
8.19" recorded at the coast
:eek:
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#397 Postby sphelps8681 » Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:52 pm

wxGuy wrote:6.97" recorded at the coast
8.19" recorded at the coast
:eek:


Where are these totals from?
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#398 Postby wxGuy » Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:53 pm

sphelps8681 wrote:
wxGuy wrote:6.97" recorded at the coast
8.19" recorded at the coast
:eek:


Where are these totals from?

i posted link to dd6 page
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#399 Postby wxGuy » Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:57 pm

http://www.dd6.org/rainfall-elevations/reports/water-level wow and this is the water level at that drainage ditch i was talking about that i had seen earlier today @ around 5:00 pm
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Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf

#400 Postby wxGuy » Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:58 pm

06/18/2018 08:41:41 PM 13.30
06/18/2018 08:11:41 PM 13.56
06/18/2018 07:56:41 PM 13.74
06/18/2018 07:26:40 PM 13.97
06/18/2018 07:11:40 PM 14.12
06/18/2018 06:56:40 PM 14.29
06/18/2018 06:41:40 PM 14.53
06/18/2018 06:11:40 PM 15.03
06/18/2018 05:56:40 PM 15.26
06/18/2018 05:11:43 PM 15.41
06/18/2018 04:56:40 PM 15.09
06/18/2018 04:26:40 PM 14.73
06/18/2018 03:56:40 PM 14.15
06/18/2018 03:41:42 PM 13.44
06/18/2018 03:27:00 PM 12.71
06/18/2018 03:11:44 PM 11.95
06/18/2018 02:56:41 PM 11.39
06/18/2018 02:26:50 PM 11.01
06/18/2018 02:11:52 PM 10.83
06/18/2018 12:56:40 PM 10.57
06/18/2018 12:26:40 PM 10.34
06/18/2018 12:11:40 PM 10.19
06/18/2018 11:56:40 AM 10.01
06/18/2018 11:41:40 AM 9.75
06/18/2018 11:11:44 AM 9.60
06/18/2018 09:56:40 AM 9.81
06/18/2018 09:41:40 AM 9.57
06/18/2018 09:26:39 AM 8.81
06/18/2018 09:11:46 AM 7.81
06/18/2018 08:56:39 AM 7.67
06/18/2018 08:41:39 AM 7.37
06/18/2018 08:11:40 AM 6.96
06/18/2018 07:26:39 AM 7.11
06/18/2018 06:26:39 AM 7.49
06/18/2018 04:56:39 AM 7.87
06/18/2018 04:41:39 AM 7.52
06/18/2018 04:26:40 AM 7.17
06/18/2018 02:11:39 AM 6.88

that ditch full af
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